Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We’re putting the wraps on another cold day in the bluegrass state, with a few flakes still flying. This action may increase a bit over the next few days as a couple of systems roll our. That sets the stage for a fun weekend of weather across the bluegrass as another winter storm impacts our weather.

Let’s start with a weak front dropping in later tonight and early Wednesday. This front will touch off scattered snow showers across parts of the region. Some local accumulations are possible once again.

The next system then arrives on Thursday in the form of a weak low pressure working west to east across the state. That one brings mainly rain, but we are seeing a bit colder solution coming into play. This is likely because the models are just now sensing the deep snow pack across the Ohio Valley. Keep that in mind for the weekend storm.

Watch how the HI Res NAM produces snow showers tomorrow, then has some snow with the Thursday system across the north…

The NAM is also spitting out a little snow over the next few days…

The GFS isn’t seeing as much moisture with this system and this seems to be an ongoing problem with the model all of a sudden. It totally misses any snow shower tomorrow, but has a touch of snow in the far north on Thursday…

As we get closer to this system, the models are growing colder because they are likely seeing the cold front the snow pack. That’s something we will need to watch for this coming weekend as an arctic front settles in here. It’s along that boundary we are likely to get low pressure, or a couple of lows, to roll.

One low is likely to roll into the state Saturday and then weakens to the northeast. At the same time, another low is going to try to pop to our southeast Saturday night and early Sunday. This scenario would bring heavy rain that can cause flooding issues on Saturday. As arctic air crashes in, some freezing rain to snow would take over Saturday night and Sunday morning, with snow showers and squalls around the rest of Sunday.

The European Model still shows the most freezing rain before the switch…

The Euro is a little slower than earlier runs with the arctic air crash, and I think it’s too slow…

To be honest, it would not surprise me if that sharp temperature gradient sets up farther south than that or farther south than what any model says. If that happens, our low tracks farther south. This is actually showing up on a couple of viable computer models today. The UKMET has a very good skill score, but doesn’t get used a lot because it’s tough to access good graphics from it. The following map is showing the 500mb pattern and the surface setup. Look where the low is Sunday morning…

The JMA has the surface low in Virginia…

Again, those models may be seeing the cold from the snow pack a little better. This is something for us to watch closely in the coming days. This is the same reason all these “milder” forecasts for the past few days have not panned out from the models…. The snow pack is keeping things colder.

I’ll be back tonight to talk more about that and any other random things that pop into my head. 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.


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9 Responses to Tuesday Evening Update

  1. Marsha says:

    Chris I love ya but rain is not my way of a fun weekend so sick of rain

  2. Msd says:

    Thanks Chris. Weather Twitter are losing their heads over this. As usual Chris is spot on. I know we all like to talk about ‘trends’ but the reality is until the energy is onshore and we have a good sample the model fluctuations are just.. Fluctuations. Only large scale features can be forecasted at this range. So, don’t take it to heart and don’t die by the models. Be calm and wait for Thursday.

  3. Winterlover says:

    Amen Med, the storm is still in the Pacific Ocean heading to state of California and people think they know it all.

  4. Lotsasnow says:

    I very much believe that a southern trend will show up tomorrow.i think northern ky is going to get a good snow out of this.

  5. MarkLex says:

    definitely colder today than the forecast.
    About the climate here – it’s definitely overcast most of the winter. Since I moved here in 1996 I’ve always noticed this almost every winter, with a few exceptions. Also, summers can vary wildly. It was like 2 or 3 summers ago, people were literally on the blog complaining about our California like weather. No clouds, no rain, no storms for what went on for almost the entire summer, except the remnants of a tropical system.

  6. Tom says:

    Chris,

    When you get a slow day I’d like to see a blog that analyzes each model…what that model does well and does not do well. This would be very educational to group all your comments in one blog. I save your daily blogs on my computer as part of my daily weather report. Thanks.

  7. Dave says:

    What “snow pack”? I m lost.

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