Tracking The Weekend System

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our super-active weather pattern shows no signs of letting up as we track 3 systems between now and the weekend, with the biggest rolling in this weekend. That one will throw everything our way, including heavy rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Oh… and a shot of arctic cold temps.

Today’s system is light, but can pack a few rain or snow showers…

The Thursday system works in here with mainly rain, but the snow pack to our north and west will keep temps colder across areas of northern Kentucky. That may mean some light snow or a mix on the leading edge of that early Thursday. The NAM fam is trying to show some light accumulations in the north and northeast…

As we get closer to this system, the forecast numbers from the model have come down and I suspect it’s because they are just now sensing the extent of the aforementioned snow pack.

Just because they’re colder for this first system doesn’t necessarily mean they will have the same issue with the weekend setup. But, it does give us something to think about and that’s why I’ve thrown that out there for the past few days.

As of this writing, the NAM only goes through Saturday morning. While it’s not terribly reliable from this range, it is showing the storm starting much farther south than many medium range models have been suggesting…

My thought process has been that we get two lows out of this weekend system. One develops and works into southeastern Kentucky Saturday, with a second low developing east or southeast of it by Saturday night. In that scenario, we would have the potential for flooding rains Saturday, with mix threat north, then a quick change to freezing rain sleet and snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snow showers and squalls would then be around Sunday afternoon on a strong northwest wind. Even if that theory is correct, it’s still too early for any specific totals of each precipitation type. Any amount of snow or ice depends on a ton of variables, so let’s just hang tight and watch the trends of the next few days. Do not short change the potential for high water ahead of any frozen stuff.

The European Model is back to showing what it had a few days ago, which is a colder solution that basically follows the outline I just gave…

The latest GFS also came a little farther south and has the 2 low scenario…

The UKMET only gives us 24 hour increments and doesn’t spit out the fancy maps like the other models. Still, it continues with a farther south storm track. These maps represent Friday evening, Saturday evening and Sunday evening…

The Canadian Model is not on board with the farther south scenario, but is showing some weird jumps with the low pressure…

That’s probably a sign the model is seeing different pressure falls, but doesn’t quite know how to handle them all.

The new version of the GFS is also still north…

So, let’s see if the colder and farther south trend is real or just a small hiccup in the modelling world.

I will throw you updates later today, so stop back in. Until then, have a great one and take care.

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42 Responses to Tracking The Weekend System

  1. BH says:

    Going to be a mess what ever we get.

  2. Terry says:

    I hate to say this but I am a bit confused in trying to figure out next week’s weather pattern pertaining to arctic air: I know the temps are showing way warmer Sunday/Monday due models currently seeing no to very low snow pack in and around KY, but what about later next week??? It now looks like only marginal cold to even slightly above average temps and drier, especially in SE KY. Also, the oscillations are pretty unfavorable with about neutral AO (though trending negative), neutral PNA (though trending slightly positive) and NAO staying slightly positive…SIGH!!

    I have followed weather since in my diapers but have never been as confused or less confident in thinking what is going to happen in the short to mid-range as I am now! Maybe the models were faking the second cold shot next week or they are just performing this badly right now due to the government shutdown and are showing a false warm up next week. Please respond on let me know your alls thoughts on this weather circus as I AM ABOUT TO FALL OFF THE TOP ROPE….LOL

    Signed Very Confused,


    • Schroeder says:

      Terry, I am confused too that the weather pattern is not showing a change. Just the same old same old. We will have to wait and see as Chris suggested in his blog this morning. Seriously, you ought to consider going back to school and get your degree in meteorology. If I was just getting out of high school, that’s exactly what I would have done. Just friendly advice. Have a great day and keep up the great comments.

    • BubbaG says:

      So far winter has not panned out as expected, so seems going by the same models would also not pan out. The only constant we have so far is that Kentucky is functioning like a fence for snow systems this winter. Again, it just takes one event to change that 🙂

  3. Farmer 43 says:

    I will say this it appears right now that in the next seven days the chances for a big snow are minimal showing even the system early next week to be the same ole thing rain with the dreaded backside wait for it you guessed it flurries I’m in Breckinridge co they’re saying the weekend storm could give me possibly over 3 inches of rain this weekend sure don’t need that I would rather wait until July for that when I could really use it

    • Bobt says:

      Looks like the first two months of meteorogical winter may get past us without even the usual “week out” potential for disappointment. That would put us only 15 days away from our average highs being around 50 here in the southern half of the state. Then it would be all eyes toward spring with the occasional chance of a big snow that is here today and gone tomorrow.. Would be fine with me to have some nice decent days to look forward to .

  4. Msd says:

    These posts like this one, right here are why we come to this blog. Thank you Chris for sharing your wisdom with us weenies. That is all.

  5. Formerly from KY says:

    What snowpack is Chris talking about?

  6. Jim B says:

    This weekend…. rain, rain, rain, backside snow for SOME, then a brief shot of cold, but not as cold as early models showed, not a shocker…

    Next weekend….true cold has moved out, so you guessed it, more rain with flurries for that system

    This continues til bout mid February, at which time we can start our predictions for when we will get our first 70 degree day, heck yeah!!!!

    I’m gonna just stick with the trends, haven’t let me down yet, just not enough sustained cold folks

  7. AndreC says:

    I’m ready for some snow so I can call into work sick!!!

  8. Drew says:

    CB has mentioned in tweets and on the blog recently that this storm is trending somewhat south or models may be jumping around. With a southern shift, what exactly does that mean for Kentucky?

    • Bjenks says:

      If further south then more cold air could funnel in to our region! Which IMO we do not want as it will result in more ice than snow!

  9. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Just playing a waiting game now. Already anxious for the next update.

  10. Winterlover says:

    The the weather channel has hop on in what Chris is saying in general. Just got to wait to see how the storm is going to track as of now it just enter the west coast.

  11. Troy says:

    We’re going to get a shot of Arctic air here and there but I see absolutely no change in the same ole same ole precipitation pattern that has ruled for over a year now. Cold rain wins every round to date and probably beyond.

  12. Jeff Kidd says:

    ECWMF does seem to want to dig the weekend system a little longer, which would put West Tenn and of course Kentucky in play for snow. Couple storms this year the ECWMF beat the NAM in short range (30-36 hr) in the Midwest. Will it translate South?

    MJO wants influence later next week, but I tend to believe the strong blocking signals will outweigh. Looks like a mild interlude between arctic systems is likely. It might be 1-2 days. A West first arctic dump might give us 3-4 mild days. Still from the upper latitudes pattern I infer it comes east. Pretty safe call really. Still looks like a true arctic outbreak Jan 26-30.

    Very end of the EPS has it easing up slightly, but one expects some ebb and flow. I expect more cold in Feb.

  13. Cold-Rain says:

    Don’t see nothing but cutter after cutter after cutter after cutter after cutter..Maybe Feb. will “NOT” deliver when we pretty much should be tired of winter and looking forward to spring..Kind of worried about the wet ground going into Feb..Want be long to get the early crops in..Can’t plow in mud..

    • Leeannie says:

      The excessive rains have also contributed to a lot of oak trees rotting where I live near Kenova, WV! We had two fall and the wind wasn’t even blowing at the time because the ground has been so saturated. Hate to see what the additional spring rains will do to them……

  14. Cold-Rain says:

    Looks like the Nam is North again..Can’t get a south trend unless it shows a 20 inch snow over your house and then it goes to Tenn..You know the Euro is run 4 times now..Off hours i guess you could call it goes out to 90hrs..I canceled wxbell a week ago..Don’t need fancy graphics telling me its gonna

  15. Mike S says:

    Even though I care little about ‘entertainment’ forecast models, I will say this one has “challenging” written all over it. Trying to predict how each of these smaller disturbances will affect the placement of the coldest air from the upcoming main system, and what if any snowpack remains to affect anything else, along with a disagreement among teleconnections ensembles….Yes, the NAO that I want to see participate in this thing, looked promising, now not so much. That means only parts of our region to be significantly impacted by winter precipitation over the next few days. I still believe more cold than not over the next couple of weeks. Hopefully, at least one system before this colder pattern breaks can deliver the goods for most of the region

  16. Bryan says:

    Some of the guys I follow on the American weather forums are already questioning the severity of this upcoming pattern change.
    It’s been a miserable and disappointing winter. Spring will be much welcome.

  17. Wes says:

    Brief cold spell…then warm back up…showing 43 for Tuesday for Harlan County…any precipitation will be….rain….

    This winter will have to put the gas pedal all the way down…

  18. Joe Thompson says:

    Let’s just put off winter till mid March then hold onto it till May…..not true “winter” but high 30’s and rain followed by a late green up. Seems to be the trend.

  19. Winter Warlock says:

    Couple of things. I wish I could post a picture of Eyore on here…ha ha! Second and on a more serious note….which we could like post on here sort of as you can do on FB! My take wont know till late Thursday night as I posted on an earlier thread or even Friday how this is going to play out and the timing of when the rain will transition to snow. The sooner folks realize that the sooner they can relax, accept it is what is and just see how it plays out. This is going to be a frustrating storm for CB and others to track that is for sure. Grateful for all the effort and perspective though!

    • Bryan says:

      The storm will be a big nothingburger for Kentucky. What’s disappointing is that the pattern change everyone is looking forward to is already looking iffy.

  20. Rodger Dodger says:

    Looks like another disappointment for us Kentucky snow lovers! Sorry, Rodger doesn’t get excited about a big temp drop when the moisture’s already east. More of the same … Rodger in Dodger

  21. Bjenks says:

    My Louisville forecast: Rain Rain Rain. 3 inches Freezing Rain Freezing Rain .10 Sleet 1.5 Snow 1-2 and salt 3 inches,,,

    I will say I saw tons of wasted salt last weekend and it will be a repeat this one.

  22. Russell says:

    Winter isnt over its said….but wheres the snow…

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