Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s ANOTHER cold and dreary day with a few rain and snow showers floating about the area. From here, we have system moving through on Thursday, with a much bigger system on track for the weekend. That one is likely to cause some problems in our region.

First things first, let’s track today’s light rain and snow showers…

Low pressure works into the region on Thursday and is mainly a light rain maker, but a period of light snow is possible at the start. The best chance of seeing this is in the north and northeast…

GFS

NAM

If it does snow in those areas, it should be light and then move away pretty quickly as light rain takes over.

My view on the weekend system really hasn’t changed much at all. It’s a setup that should deliver all modes of precipitation to the bluegrass state. Saturday brings heavy rain with the potential for flooding. Temps crash Saturday evening with rain changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, then snow. Snow showers and squalls would then carry us through Sunday afternoon.

Here’s the latest GFS starting at 7pm Saturday and going through Sunday afternoon…

The new version of the GFS is similar…

Let’s rank the weekend based on greatest impact potential:

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

I’m back on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have the latest then. I will also have another update here later this evening.

Have a good one and take care.


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33 Responses to Wednesday Afternoon Update

  1. James says:

    As always,great information here. Thank you, Mr Bailey. On a slow weather day, take a look at this strange cloud formation I videoed in Western Kentucky recently. The symmetry of this is quite interesting. Any thoughts on conditions that caused this to form so quickly?
    https://youtu.be/falheAR810U

  2. BubbaG says:

    The good news is (as stands now) it probably would have been more ice than snow anyway- think 2009, but MUCH colder. I will take over 90% rain and less than 10% ice/snow, over 50% rain and 50% mainly ice with a snow topping- ANY day 🙂

  3. BengalFan says:

    Bottom line here…everybody say it…rain
    Broken stinkin record!

    But hey..bright side it looks like the Bengals are changing the whole guard with their team…so maybe after this weekend the weather can change and quit raining!!!!!!!

  4. Jimbo says:

    Looks like a lot more rain then backside flurries.

  5. Allen the amatuer weather guy says:

    Ok here are my thoughts on this weekends storm, At this point it’s not to much different then what CB has, However i think the cold air will get in here a bit more quicker than what the models are putting out. Especially since the track looks to be a bit more eastward then previous model runs, And i also think the change over will be a quick one with not as much freezing rain as other models have put out. I think there will be widespread 2 to 3 inches rains with less then a 1/4 inch of ice and maybe 2 to 4 inches of snow in some area’s. I think sunday will be filled with snow squalls throught the day that could lead to minor accumulations.. Ok that’s all for me you can now look to the real weather guy (CB ) Will update this if needed!

  6. Drew says:

    On a positive note, I can see several places getting an inch of snow out of this anyway. We haven’t had an inch of snow yet this year. At this point, I’ll take it!

  7. Bryant says:

    Man, can’t wait. More rain. More backside stuff that won’t add up because we never get a good northwest flow anymore. Follow that up with a cold pattern that is looking more and more like a busterino.

    This Winter can go die lol

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I have no idea what kind of precio we will get this weekend, but I am going to make sure we have plenty of kerosene just in case we need it. We will use it through the winter in the hatahe anyway so it won’t get wasted. You just tell me what is coming when you know and I will be prepared. Have a good afternoon all.

  9. Russell says:

    I’m still waiting for winter to get underway….as in snow…..rain train pulls in Sat….but several say there’s still plenty of winter to come….not so sure. ..

  10. Prelude says:

    For all you Louisville posters on here or anyone who is familiar we all need to show some love for former Louisville meteorologist Jeremy Kappell. He’s a awesome met that took a promotion not to long ago just got recently fired from his chief meteorologist job in Rochester NY for fumbling over his words. His firing has made national news and pretty much the majority such as Al Roker, Martin Luther King’s daughter etc etc has stood behind Jeremy Kappell calling his firing unnecessary and harsh.

    • Dr Wx says:

      Absolutely unbelievable to ruin a dedicated meteorologist career over an obvious mispronunciation. After listening to the event a subsequent interviews and his Twitter response he is just human and made a flub.he is obviously heartbroken and devastated by the actions of his employer. Why cant we all just except people make mistakes and move on and get along?

      • Prelude says:

        Hopefully he’ll head back home and get back on with a local station in Louisville. He’s very well respected and liked very much in the Louisville market one of the four stations will pick him back up and not think twice about it. I believe most of his family lives in the So Indiana region right across the bridge from Louisville. It was a real tough decision for him and his family to leave in the first place, Louisville/So Indiana is home for Jeremy. It was a job promotion getting to be a chief meteorologist in Rochester and Jeremy loves snow and a challenge. To see this happen to him I know is devastating for him and his family.

  11. Drew says:

    Interesting the southern trend that the EURO is showing! Is it for real or is the model just bouncing around? Definitely makes things more interesting.

  12. bjenks says:

    Thanks for the update CB!

    Before said and done this backloaded winter will be epic to some. The cold is coming and the southern jet is not going to stop delivering the Lows. I see potential ice storm, heavy snow and below freezing temps in the near future, and I am not talking about this weekend. Now I am in Louisville so I do feel for you southern peeps as the rain train will rolll on for you guys. Sitting on the FENCE is not that much fun though.

    • Debbie says:

      I didn’t know you were in Louiville?! Anyway, imo, this “fence” is definitely in the Nelson Co. area. I mean, we literally straddle it from rain on one side to ice on the other. There is no in-between as far as I am concerned. Dec. ’04 is a wonderful example. The week prior to Christmas.Heavy Rain/FzRn started that Wednesday afternoon and continued on & on. Didn’t take long for the power to blow, since the main transformer for our street was located in my backyard amongst a bunch of 40 y/o trees…..it actually caught fire when the 2nd. big limb fell on it. Fire dept went up the street behind us and I had to go chase them down climbing the back fence through neighbors’ yards. Good grief. 2 days later on Friday, my then-hubby and I took my Mom to the Okolona/Fairdale area to fetch her paycheck from her workplace because her boss(a big idiot-I’d worked for him too prior..lol) left the checks there while he cruised the Caribbean. Ice for about 9 miles, then once into Bullitt Co. it was heavy snow, but the roads still sucked. Get there, the lock to the gate is frozen, we had to use a cig lighter to thaw it…then dig through a foot of snow to push the gate back…then thaw the lock to the factory’s door, only to get inside and find…yep…NO PAYCHECKS!!!?? We go back home, miss the Bernheim exit because we slid into a snowbank thanks to an idiot in a big SUV..tore out the grille and coat-hangared the radiator until we could get back to Bardstown…power came back on overnight Friday, so yes, able to do Christmas dinner w/ what looked like a freezer-burnt turkey that hadn’t thawed in the 4 days in the fridge…couldn’t watch TV for another 6 days because the cable co. got our neighbor’s downed phone line confused w/ the cable line (DOH!!!)
      Sorry for the long story, but yeah….I’m sick of rain, I’m tired of chasing dogs with a mop over a white floor 24/7, and I’m seriously liking the idea of ICE right now.

  13. Shannon says:

    Ugh. Not looking good for Columbus Ohio. I see lots of ice on the GFS

  14. Chris Mercer says:

    Looks like the weekend cold snap will be temporary followed by a more pronounced one the middle of next week. Once we get into February, the average temps start rising, the days get longer (hence a better sun angle), and the likelihood of a prolonged period of bitter cold becomes less likely than it would be in the latter half of December or January.

    • Bjenks says:

      Coldest time of winter is typically Jan 15 – Feb 15 in our world. The cold is coming in next week and with a snow pack from the Ohio River northward will hang around for the next system to follow along, thus pulling more cold in. That 40 degree high Jimbo speaks of below wont be noted in a day or two.

  15. Jimbo says:

    The cold snap looks like a brief one in the tri-state. Local tv has temps back in the mid 40’s by next Tuesday. I guess the cold has to move out of the way fast so we can get some rain.

    • Prelude says:

      Absolutely that would be very rude for the cold to still be here as the rain approaches moisture and cold temperatures do not mix well here. The rain hates the cold and the cold hates the rain. In these parts only room for one not both. lol

      • Bjenks says:

        And that one would be ICE!!!

        • BubbaG says:

          The wind before the cold air sets in should help dry some of the surface water. Has every time so far when cold air crashes in. Wind takes care of some of it before freezing temps.

          • Prelude says:

            This is true, however from what I’m gathering precipitation will still be falling as temperatures are dropping leading to a flash freeze issue.

  16. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Pretty big bust on the temps here today.
    Forecast high: 46
    Actual temperature: 33

  17. BigJack says:

    I’ve been reading this blog for several years, along with the comments. I’m always shocked at all the naysayers! Y’all never have a good word to say about anything! Give it all a break and let’s wait see what this winter has in store for us! We are not even a month in! Fingers crossed for a good snow this weekend!

    • Jude says:

      Ding ding ding ding

      Correct. I don’t even post much anymore. The negativity and whining is way overdone. Good post Jack!

  18. Prelude says:

    Geez the 18z run of the GFS-FV3 for next Wednesday has a nasty ice look for a good part of Kentucky with crazy precipitation amounts. Luckily and hopefully that will change.

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