Updating The Weekend Setup

Good evening, folks. It’s another dreary day that’s wrapping up across the region as we wait on another system to bring rain and a touch of snow in here late tonight and Thursday. That’s the opening act for a MUCH bigger storm moving in over the weekend. That will bring some trouble to much of the region.

Let me talk briefly about the weak system later tonight and Thursday. This is mainly a light rain maker, but northern and northeastern Kentucky may see a period of light snow or a mix early in the day. Some light accumulations will  be possible.

For the weekend, it remains about the track of two lows. The first low works across the state and weakens on Saturday as another low takes over to the south and southeast. How all this plays out will be the determining factor on how much of each precipitation form  you get where you live.

My ranking of the biggest impacts the same as earlier…

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The European Model continues to be farther south with the whole setup, giving the region more of a winter weather hit…

This is all very similar to what the model was showing with the last run, so it’s not like the model is waffling much at all. Taken verbatim, the European Model shows 2″-3″ of rain on Saturday, with a period of freezing rain then accumulating snow Saturday night.

The temperatures on the Euro are impressive. Watch this drop that will lead to a major freeze up…

The only way our numbers get that cold on Monday morning is if there’s a decent snow on the ground. Obviously, the European Model thinks that’s the case.

The first model to show the more southerly track was the UKMET. That model only gives me forecast for certain time increments from this range and doesn’t give us the fancy maps like the other models. The model still has the southerly track of the low. The below maps are Friday evening, Saturday morning and Sunday morning…

The JMA has a similar track in 24 hour increments…

The new version of the GFS is still a bit farther north because it’s putting more emphasis on the lead low…

The GFS is also putting more emphasis on that lead low, but is also just way too fast with the overall system and has no friends for this run…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take are.


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22 Responses to Updating The Weekend Setup

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Fun and games are about to start charging up for the weekend. I vote for more snow and les Ron and freezing rain but I doubt if mine will be the deciding vote. 😉 O well we will see what the models (and you) say tomorrow. Have a good evening.

  2. Prelude says:

    Geez the 18z run of the GFS-FV3 for next Wednesday has a nasty ice look for a good part of Kentucky with crazy precipitation amounts. Luckily and hopefully that will change.

  3. Terry says:

    Not trying to add another compliant to the already negative atmosphere but ABSOLUTELY NOTHING is working out right at the moment for even the PV setup. The MJO is running straight back towards phase 4 and 5 no man’s land , NAO is on a positive space journey, AO is in neutral LA LA Land and PNA wants to go back home towards negative island.

    Honestly, this winter pure stinks. Yes before people complain about my complaining, I know we may still get a few weeks of winter and someone gets snow in our region, especially in February which has been advertised since last autumn to be the worst month for cold/snow….yada, yada, yada. But, the reality is nothing has worked out like most thought. Honestly I feel like I have been deceived by the models, model trends and MY OWN INTERPRETATION of what I THOUGHT was going to be a decent winter. In return, I feel like I have deceived others.

    In closing, this IS NOT a post against Chris as he has not even made an official forecast for this weekend yet or for next week either. This is just a weather geek who has never felt more defeated than this year which the weather has proved him wrong!

    • Jimbo says:

      You shouldn’t take it so hard. But I understand how you feel. It just comes with living in our part of the world. For every one snowy Winter we get, there are about seven that are like this year. Doesn’t make it any less disappointing. But it does explain why so many of us are such skeptics of the models. Plus the constant rain has most everybody down.

  4. Jimbo says:

    Still a week away but Charleston NWS has highs in the mid 40’s next Tuesday and Wednesday with rain returning on Wednesday.

  5. Virgil E says:

    😀 that is all….

  6. BubbaG says:

    Still seems a lot of the water will dry off surfaces when the winds start, so might not be as bad a freeze as could be. Of course if the wind can not get to a surface that well, wind will not help.

    • Prelude says:

      For some reason you’re thinking the precipitation will be gone as the winds pickup it’s going to be windy out all day. Precipitation is still forecast to be falling as temperatures are rapidly dropping doesn’t matter if there’s wind or not. The wind cannot dry precip that’s still falling.

  7. Tom says:

    New Nam seems to be missing the storm. Not sure what to make of it. Aberration?

  8. msd says:

    I love this blog and I love y’all but please don’t get excited or depressed by model runs. I feel your frustrations, heck I’m here in East TN and apart from a 45 minute burst of snow that melted in two hours in December, I haven’t seen a single flake since. Our average is 6 inches over an entire season 🙂

    It comes and goes, put it in perspective. Just a few years ago y’all were rolling in snow in double digits while we had a crippling ice event. That said, I’ve come up with a bingo chart. The first person to spot three of these wins!

    1. 33>32 so sit down.

    2. 18z GFS fantasy snowstorm/2000 mile long ice storm/-40F predicted in Georgia as Edmonton packs up and leaves the prairies.

    3. Yep, paint that blue patch over with green, the ridge will pop back up. Also, see 1.

    4. Pray for the snow to start in Florida five days out. Then when the north west trend kicks in we’ll be in business.

    5. The snow is right on top of us three days out. You win again, Dakotas.

    6. Cold and dry. Warm and wet. Rinse, lather and repeat.

    7. This model has [insert bias that will leave KY cold and dry or wet and warm]. Indeed, the Canadian hasn’t been right since the Battle of Hastings.

    8. [When it is actually snowing outside] – what a bust! Where’s the two feet that the snowfall map predicted ten days out from ensemble member 16.

    9. It trended north, south, west – subterranean. Literally it’s snowing beneath our feet. But not here.

    10. The dome is alive and well.

    Peace.

  9. Prelude says:

    “@LexTv & radio” under CB’s tweet, there was no blizzard in 1994. Winter Storm of 94 yes, blizzard nope. No wind with that storm therefore no blizzard.

  10. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Que sera, sera. It’s all good.

  11. Russell says:

    Terry you’re right on… it’s not panning out at all which is why I said a while back RIP winter.

    • Jimbo says:

      I think you are right. We will probably have a bunch of flurries and nuisance light snows in March and April. Like last year.

  12. Dr Wx says:

    And Alberta Clippers seem to have gone extinct too

  13. Todd says:

    This weekend storm will over achieve in some areas, where?

    Calm down folks you will get hammered with some form of precip.
    before this crazy winter is over?

    Keenland sounds goooooood

  14. nasdaq says:

    Did you give up on the weekend storm? According to the 00z ECMWF, it might be time to tune back in…

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