Some Wild For Your Weekend

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another ugly weather day across the bluegrass state as light rain/mix maker works through here. This is a little system compared to the system working in here for the upcoming weekend. This brings heavy rain, gusty winds, a touch of freezing rain, snow and a taste of arctic air.

Let’s begin with the system we have out there today. It’s a light one, but will produce some decent rains for many. Areas in the north and northeast will have just enough cold air for some light snow or a mix this morning. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Let’s talk about the big weekend storm system. This winter storm will be a monster that impacts a large chunk of real estate across the country. For Kentucky, it’s going to bring all modes of precipitation to the state. I continue to maintain we are dealing with two lows. One weak low that rides into Kentucky on Saturday, with another low developing south and east of us late Saturday into Saturday night.

In that scenario, heavy rain on Saturday may lead to some flooding issues developing. Arctic air then crashes in from the northwest Saturday evening and night, with rain going over to a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow then all snow. A band of snow would carry us into early Sunday with snow showers and a few squalls after that.

The European Model has been the absolute most consistent model, showing a very similar scenario with each run from the past few days…

The model snowfall map continues to be on the high side compared to all other models, but it has been slowly sinking south…

Again, that’s only a model run, so don’t get too terribly attached to it just yet. Let’s see it can get a few friends to agree with it before we totally jump in feet first… Or head first. 🙂

The European is also consistent on the amount of arctic air sweeping in here. Since the model has a snow pack across the state, it gets a little crazy with the Sunday night lows…

Again, lows like that would ONLY happen with a snow pack and clear skies. Let’s wait and see on that, but the rest of that cold is about right.

The closest model to the European is the new version of the GFS. This model is just beginning to see the second low idea, but it’s slower getting there…

With a slower evolution to the second low, it’s more disjointed with the snow forecast, but does show a healthy swath possible…

That brings us to the GFS. This poor model has the least amount of precipitation of any model and is the fastest of any model, by far…

Watch for that model to slow things down with future runs. That means your app forecasts will have some big swings on them since many are based off the GFS.

Some thoughts:

  • Heavy rain on Saturday may easily cause some, at least, local high water issues. You can’t put a few inches of rain down that fast without some issues, especially with our soggy ground.
  • The temp crash is going to cause a lot of issues. A flash freeze is likely Saturday night and that may turn things awfully icy as all that water from earlier freezes up.
  • A brief period of light freezing rain should show up in the transition from rain to snow.
  • The snow is still the biggest challenge of the forecast. A setup like this is usually good for accumulating snow. How fast we can change it over to snow will determine how much falls where you live.
  • I know many of you read this whole blog and only see one word… Snow. No other words exist. Some will totally skip over the heavy rain, flash freeze or arctic cold and only see snow. I say this with love, btw. 🙂
  • If you’re a fan of wild weather, this weekend is pretty awesome. Temps may hit 60 in some areas on Saturday with single digits showing up less than 24 hours later.

As we get beyond this storm, this harsh winter pattern is just kicking in. Another arctic front shows up by the middle of next week with additional systems and bitterly cold air slamming in…

As I’ve been pointing out for a while now (along with several other reputable weather sources), temps can totally get out of control during all this time…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, let’s track the early morning rain and northern mix…


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Make it a good one and take care.

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36 Responses to Some Wild For Your Weekend

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    ‘Snow or Bust’

  2. Tom says:

    Excellent effort. Much appreciated. If the second low becomes the accepted idea it likely won’t show on the models until late today or Friday. The second low normally has a nice swath of snow though often narrow. As someone has said, we shall see.

  3. Terry says:

    I hope that NWS issues a flood watch before Saturday morning as WPC already has Central and Eastern/SE KY in a slight risk for flooding this far out with widespread 2.5 up to 4 inches of rain from VA border back to Louisville !

  4. Farmer 43 says:

    Kentucky winter cold front moisture and is the two gonna catch each other before the moisture is gone not usually like someone said the other day we can’t even get an Alberta clipper this might be highlight of winter flash freeze truly exciting but hey we can always start looking down the road to build up next system only to watch it turn out to be a dud I’m sure that’s what the analog years say to though lol

  5. Bjenks says:

    Regardless on how this storm pans out for Kentucky, N S E and W, what is coming for the next several weeks to couple of months will have the naysayers of winter is a bust and winter is over looking for there heating blankets and begging for rain. IMO this storm is the flip to real deal winter weather for our region with sustained cold shots and multiple snow chances. We are heading into our coldest part of the winter season and Mother Nature is going to impress some of us.
    IF and a big IF we get the Euro to pan out it will be an all out frozen pipes, cars not starting, miserable cold week next week and I don’t wish that on anyone.

  6. Snowrunner says:


  7. Drew says:

    Euro is showing a pretty good hit for the Ashland area. It sure would be nice to see this model come true. I’ll take a few inches of wet snow. Anxious to see how this plays out!

  8. BubbaG says:

    Folks, if this hit as appeared in the models a few days ago, it would be like 2009, but even colder. Seems good to not get more frozen stuff. Factor in a very soggy ground and wind, thiss could have been the worst power outages to date.

  9. Feederband says:

    Magic 8 Ball is more consistent and accurate than the GFS

  10. Troy says:

    I find it comical that Middlesboro is literally the only location in the sate on that Euro map that is outside the blue in the gray colored area (little to no snow)….which leads me to believe it may be on to something! Point being, if there were wide spread snows, it’s a fact that we would be the ones left out. Anyway….I’m not buying any of it yet.

  11. Russell says:

    I’ll say this….even though I’m wanting snow I hope I never ever see another ice storm like 2009….

  12. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Is the cold behind the system loosing it’s punch? The forecast for the KC/NE game Sunday originally had a temperature of 1, then 15, now this morning the temperature at kick off is forecast at 22.

  13. Lucy says:

    Come on cold. All this moisture needs cold so we can have snow. #Teambringbigsnowsback

  14. Dave says:

    Looks like everything snowy is lifting north on latest models I ve seen. Getting sooooo sick of cold rain.

  15. Andy Rose says:

    Snow is mixing in at Knox county

    • Troy says:

      Heavy snow in Middlesboro currently even though radr on shows rain…

      • Troy says:

        update* nearly 2 inches of snow on the ground just across the state line in TN (only a mile away)….what do we have here in Middlesboro? absolutely nothing, just another slap in the face

  16. Kim says:

    Chris, Are those below zero temps showing up for next week?

  17. Jim B says:

    I’m just not seeing those type of cold temps sticking around for the next system….just gonna stick with the trends

  18. Bryan says:

    Anyone know of the record for consecutive days without sunshine? I think here in south central KY, Friday or Saturday will make at least 7 days.

    Just a miserable winter.

    • Bobt says:

      Looks like a repeat of 2018 which was pretty much miserable the entire year. Im seriously going to look for real estate elsewhere after retirement if the climate around here doesn’t change. Way too much rain without a whole lot of sunshine.

  19. Thanks for the updates CB! I love all things weather, and am looking forward to see how things play out this weekend.

  20. Drew says:

    Will the euro continue to stay south or will we see it starting trending back north this afternoon? Thoughts??

  21. Pouring here in Harrogate and even the roads are white. Temperature is falling instead of going up as predicted. Hmmmmmmm…..

  22. Mike S says:

    This is still just outside of NAM’s ‘most accurate’ period, but a southern correction of heaviest snowfall inching toward the Ohio River (yes pun intended) after frontal crash. I would say decent amounts if verified.

  23. Joyce says:

    My family is going north this weekend and my sister and I are staying in with coffee, fireplace and snow watching! I hope it all works out for us.
    I am not holding my breath.

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