Good afternoon, folks. Our light rain maker is rolling across the region and has a brief period of snow on the leading edge of it. As this system moves away, we focus on the weekend storm set to bring a lot of different weather our way. Everything from the potential of flooding rains to snow moves through here.

Before we get to that, let’s get to regional radar to track todays action…

Our weekend storm system remains on track to come at us via two lows. The first rolls in here with heavy rain on Saturday, with the next one taking over to our south and east. Exactly where that second low takes over is the determining factor on how much snow falls Saturday night and early Sunday.

My ranking of the biggest impacts the same yesterday…

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 1″-3″ of rain will fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The WPC has the greatest risk for flooding across central and eastern Kentucky…

Here’s the risk area for 4″+ snows from Saturday morning through Sunday morning…

It’s obvious they are not going with their own model, the GFS, and for good reason. The GFS continues to be way too fast with the overall storm speed and that limits precipitation amounts. The reason for this is because it’s putting too much emphasis on the lead low and doesn’t really see the second low until it’s way east…

Contrast that with the Hi Res NAM, which only goes through early evening Saturday. The GFS has a low over Pennsylvania while the NAM has the low on the Kentucky/Tennessee border…

You can see that swath of snow on the backside of that low. That would then work across the state quickly Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The UKMET has a very similar look to the NAM…

The new version of the GFS is kind of a split between the GFS and NAM/UKMET…

One thing for sure, the GFS has no friends. There’s a reason this model is about to be replaced.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then here on KWC this evening. Make it a good one and take care.