A Crazy Weekend Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. A developing winter storm is rolling our way and is poised to bring a little bit of wild and crazy weather to the bluegrass state. Heavy rain, high winds, a brief mild up, a major temp crash, a flash freeze and snow are all on the way… And that all happens in less than a 12 hour period.

I’ve talked about how the models were placing too much emphasis on the lead low and they should start to lose that and focus more on a low farther south. Most of the latest runs are doing just that, so you’re seeing them change their tune a bit in terms of the amount of winter weather potential.

Let’s begin with the first threat and that comes from the heavy rain. 1″-2″ rans show up for many, with some spots having a chance to push 3″…

That would lead to some local high water issues developing.

The farther south track of the low Saturday into Saturday night would argue for a better swath of snow working across the state.

The NAM is a little late in recognizing the low, so it only brings that snow to central and eastern Kentucky…

The Hi Res NAM gets it cranking much sooner and impacts much of the state with much more moisture…

The European Model is starting to develop a little more of a comma head look to that snow band…

The new version of the GFS is still seeing a little too much of the northern low, but the precipitation shield is showing how it’s sensing how the pressure falls showing up father south…

Then three is the soon to be replaced GFS. It’s slowly coming south, but it’s jumping too much energy on the lead low, forcing it to be the fastest and farthest north of the bunch…

The Canadian is coming south, but is still jumpy with the low…

It’s interesting to note how the JMA and UKMET were the first models to really latch on to the farther south low and they’re even a little farther south with the new runs…

JMA Saturday Evening

UKMET Saturday Evening-Sunday Morning..

So, let’s see how the models handle all this today before I put out a First Call Map. Obviously, accumulating snows will show up, it’s just a question of how much.

Regardless of how much of the white stuff falls, travel conditions will go downhill quickly Saturday evening through early Sunday as our flash freeze kicks in. All that water is going to ice up very quickly as temps drop through the 20s and into the teens. Throw just a little bit of snow on top of that and travel could get ugly at some point.

Wind chills will be near zero at times Saturday night into Sunday. Actual lows go way down Sunday night.

PS… The next arctic front arrives Wednesday and will have a storm developing along it.

I will have updates later today so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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36 Responses to A Crazy Weekend Ahead

  1. BH says:

    I think every snow lover will be leaning toward the model that shows the most snow for them. Ha! Ha!

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Nah, just rain and DREADED backside flurries! 😉 😀

  3. Terry says:

    I suspect we get a flood watch this morning from NWS. The total rainfall was .56 here at the house for yesterday/early last night. Yesterday’s weak system has only further saturated SE KY, though not as wet as December. Some data shows possibly over 3 inches but most runs are closer to 2 inches of rain for tomorrow.

    I also had a quick 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow that melted between noon and about 3 PM yesterday IN THE VALLEY, but high up, 1 to 3 inches was common on those mts!

    • StormTrackerWV says:

      This concerns me, especially since yesterday’s system was described as a “light rain maker” for days, and yet you ended up getting over a half inch of rain from it?!!? That isn’t exactly a “light” rain, so like you said, that saturates the ground already, and then makes me hope that the models aren’t totally underestimating what’s going on with this weekend’s storm.

      • Terry says:

        The possible saving grace for this not becoming a major flood event is the fact that Eastern KY and WV has been “drier” since January 1st with only about normal precipitation for January-to-date. Two weeks of average instead of above average precip is not hardly long enough to fully dry our ground out but helps a little. Still, some flooding looks possible but depends on the speed of the storm.

        Ohhhh, if we were only in the Northeast! Some data is pushing 3 ft of snow from this mess from NY upstate area into Maine!

  4. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    It is going to be another fun weekend.

  5. Jimbo says:

    I am already over this upcoming event. And the Wednesday system looks to be a repeat in my area since 50 degree highs are predicted Tuesday and Wednesday. I would like to be more positive but until something finally stops the rain train. We’ll keep getting the same result.

  6. BubbaG says:

    Again, CB’s wording and title is everything. Snow is not a key theme here. Sole skimmer at best. Ankle biter would be an aspiration.

    Getting kind of close to being a Seinfeld winter- a lot about nothing in regards to snow. Still banking on one 6 – 8 incher, but that is looking inspirational too (based on the recent trend). Head NE to see OPS. Other people’s snow.

    Still a chance though, since half a winter left- just ignore the first half trend 😉

    • feederband says:

      I was #UKMET yesterday and it’s still the most consistent. Chris is just biding his time and will forecast an ankle crusher this evening. lol

  7. Josh says:

    First call for snowfall from joshy poo again for Ashland
    0-.00001 inches. There’s a better chance of Jimbo being president than us getting snow!

  8. SkiWi says:

    So where is this Winter with below average temperatures and snow? Never bet against the rain.

  9. Formerly from KY says:

    Being from Kentucky I feel your frustration but if u want big snow u need to move to higher elevation area out west or the states of Maine, Vermont or New Hampshire, or Upper New York. Winter length seems to be shrinking year to year.

    • feederband says:

      Following Reed Timmer on Twitter and he was at Mammoth Mountain California with 60″-100″ of snow and blizzard conditions yesterday. A lot of digging out after that one.

  10. Troy says:

    I’m betting on trends and the trend agrees with the old GFS. This storm will not break the trend.Time will tell.

  11. Bernard P. Fife says:

    I think the whole pattern is gonna wimp out, looking into next week we may have a system coming in mid week but temps are only expected below freezing during the overnights and that’s only upper 20’s, hardly an artic outbreak.

    • feederband says:

      It’s still too cold for me but I get what you’re saying. All cold and no snow makes for a long dreary January and February.

  12. Bjenks says:

    So many of the models have corrected a little south. I really like that Chris has the JMA model on the past couple posts. It did real good a few years back and was spot on every time. If it verifies and no dry slot all of Ky will have a decent snow.
    If and a big IF we get a snowpack then the real deal cold will filter in and won’t move out in time for the next system. Haven’t had snow on snow for a long time. Wouldn’t that be special.

  13. Mike S says:

    For those who keep complaining about the rain, believe me, most of the state has had a lot of rain over the last several months. It seems like you want snow, but what if you get a lot of snow, say like 6-8″? Is that a fair estimate of what you want? What’s that gonna do? You get your snow, but do you have a drier ground? Last I heard, a blanket of snow is still a collection of raindrops that has not melted yet; in addition, the blanket from your snow “bank” savings account does not allow the ground to dry out, and to add insult to more complaining, you have to add the snowmelt to the next round of rain that falls. In other words, you are still not going to be happy with winter, even with 6-8″ snow. So, look forward to Spring instead…but more rain likely. Maybe by this summer…less rain?

  14. Mike S says:

    And that Hi-Res NAM model output for snow from what, 5 or 6 hours earlier, I know it’s not a forecast, because I would not forecast no snow accumulation for a good chunk of the southern Indiana counties down to the Ohio River.

  15. BengalFan says:

    This wording for snow always crack me up:
    “Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on”.

    On flip side, there are NO variables for RAIN.

  16. Jim B says:

    Trends, trends,trends, creeping back north

  17. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hopefully you can get a handle on this thing with the next few runs. I appreciate all you do and the sacrifices you make to keep us informed and to keep us safe. A quick freeze up could cause power issues as well if power lines are weighted down with rain. Looking forward to your next update.

  18. MB says:

    Trying to predict how much snow someone will get in KY is like trying to pin the tail on the donkey… after being spun… like 400 times in a row… with the donkey being a moving target…

  19. Lucy says:

    As of right now, my area in Southern IN is calling for 1 inch of snow. Seems temperatures drop after the moisture slinks through.

  20. BubbaG says:

    Folks, just a few years ago we had three record snows in less than twelve months. How long was the gap before that? About 18 years. We had some six inch snows here and there, but the gap for big snow was loooong.

    • BubbaG says:

      Maybe 17, but point is it was loooooong.

      • Bobt says:

        Parts of SE Kentucky missed out on those three big snows. We are in a 20 year drought from what would be considered a “big snow”. The infamous dome still lives in some small sections of Kentucky. Warm air usually wins put in a small pocket near the southern part of I-75 in Kentucky.

  21. Tom N Lincoln says:

    Anybody south of the Ohio river will likely see nothing but flurries out of this system. Maybe next time we’ll see a decent snow……yeah right. LOL.

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