Good Friday, everyone. A developing winter storm is rolling our way and is poised to bring a little bit of wild and crazy weather to the bluegrass state. Heavy rain, high winds, a brief mild up, a major temp crash, a flash freeze and snow are all on the way… And that all happens in less than a 12 hour period.

I’ve talked about how the models were placing too much emphasis on the lead low and they should start to lose that and focus more on a low farther south. Most of the latest runs are doing just that, so you’re seeing them change their tune a bit in terms of the amount of winter weather potential.

Let’s begin with the first threat and that comes from the heavy rain. 1″-2″ rans show up for many, with some spots having a chance to push 3″…

That would lead to some local high water issues developing.

The farther south track of the low Saturday into Saturday night would argue for a better swath of snow working across the state.

The NAM is a little late in recognizing the low, so it only brings that snow to central and eastern Kentucky…

The Hi Res NAM gets it cranking much sooner and impacts much of the state with much more moisture…

The European Model is starting to develop a little more of a comma head look to that snow band…

The new version of the GFS is still seeing a little too much of the northern low, but the precipitation shield is showing how it’s sensing how the pressure falls showing up father south…

Then three is the soon to be replaced GFS. It’s slowly coming south, but it’s jumping too much energy on the lead low, forcing it to be the fastest and farthest north of the bunch…

The Canadian is coming south, but is still jumpy with the low…

It’s interesting to note how the JMA and UKMET were the first models to really latch on to the farther south low and they’re even a little farther south with the new runs…

JMA Saturday Evening

UKMET Saturday Evening-Sunday Morning..

So, let’s see how the models handle all this today before I put out a First Call Map. Obviously, accumulating snows will show up, it’s just a question of how much.

Regardless of how much of the white stuff falls, travel conditions will go downhill quickly Saturday evening through early Sunday as our flash freeze kicks in. All that water is going to ice up very quickly as temps drop through the 20s and into the teens. Throw just a little bit of snow on top of that and travel could get ugly at some point.

Wind chills will be near zero at times Saturday night into Sunday. Actual lows go way down Sunday night.

PS… The next arctic front arrives Wednesday and will have a storm developing along it.

I will have updates later today so check back. Have a good one and take care.