Good afternoon, everyone. As we inch closer and closer to the weekend, the setup continues to feature everything we’ve been talking about all week. Heavy rain, gusty winds, mild temps, a major temp crash, flash freeze and some snow.
Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out…
- Saturday features heavy rains of 1″-2″ with a local 3″ amount possible. That could cause some high water issues to develop.
- Temps on Saturday may reach 60 in the south and southeast, but stay in the 30s in the far north. This is a mega temperature gradient.
- Cold air rapidly sweeps in Saturday evening and that will cause a flash freeze. All that water will ice up quickly as temps hit the 20s then the teens.
- A change to snow is also likely Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Some accumulations are a good bet. As of now, those look mainly on the light side, but a band of higher totals is going to try to sneak into the mix somewhere. I’m just not sure where, yet.
- A First Call For Snowfall Map will be on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.
- Travel conditions go downhill quickly from Saturday evening through Sunday morning as roads become icy from the temp drop and some snows.
- Highs on Saturday are in the upper teens to low 20s. Lows by Monday morning may reach the single digits.
- Winds are going to be very gusty all weekend. That will lead to wind chills that may reach zero or below at times.
One of the things we are seeing with this storm system is the models really struggling on where to put the low or dual lows. To illustrate my point, just watch how the Hi Res NAM can’t figure out where to track the low. Check out how many jumps show up…
That looks like a ping pong ball and it’s something many of the models are trying to figure out. I still say we get two lows with a weak low working across the state Saturday, with the main low working south and east of that later in the day into Saturday night.
Until the models figure out where the lows go, you’re gonna see them continue to jump around with their rain and snow output numbers.
Here are the morning runs…
Hi Res NAM
I’ll throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.