Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. As we inch closer and closer to the weekend, the setup continues to feature everything we’ve been talking about all week. Heavy rain, gusty winds, mild temps, a major temp crash, flash freeze and some snow.

Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out…

  • Saturday features heavy rains of 1″-2″ with a local 3″ amount possible. That could cause some high water issues to develop.
  • Temps on Saturday may reach 60 in the south and southeast, but stay in the 30s in the far north. This is a mega temperature gradient.
  • Cold air rapidly sweeps in Saturday evening and that will cause a flash freeze. All that water will ice up quickly as temps hit the 20s then the teens.
  • A change to snow is also likely Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Some accumulations are a good bet. As of now, those look mainly on the light side, but a band of higher totals is going to try to sneak into the mix somewhere. I’m just not sure where, yet.
  • A First Call For Snowfall Map will be on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.
  • Travel conditions go downhill quickly from Saturday evening through Sunday morning as roads become icy from the temp drop and some snows.
  • Highs on Saturday are in the upper teens to low 20s. Lows by Monday morning may reach the single digits.
  • Winds are going to be very gusty all weekend. That will lead to wind chills that may reach zero or below at times.

One of the things we are seeing with this storm system is the models really struggling on where to put the low or dual lows. To illustrate my point, just watch how the Hi Res NAM can’t figure out where to track the low. Check out how many jumps show up…

That looks like a ping pong ball and it’s something many of the models are trying to figure out. I still say we get two lows with a weak low working across the state Saturday, with the main low working south and east of that later in the day into Saturday night.

Until the models figure out where the lows go, you’re gonna see them continue to jump around with their rain and snow output numbers.

Here are the morning runs…

Hi Res NAM

NAM

GFS

Canadian

I’ll throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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48 Responses to Friday Afternoon Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thank s Chris. My daughter in the Cleveland area just got out under a winter storm warning for 8-11 inches of snow from midnight tonight thru Monday morning. Still think we should have an advisory for freezing rain and a flood watch as well. Guess when they can’t decide they feel it’s better to say nothing. Looking forward to the next update.

  2. Jim B says:

    Bing – o, snow precip creeping farther north

  3. Troy says:

    Seems the GFS might have been on to something all along since the others seem to be falling into line with a suspiciously similar solution.

  4. SkiWi says:

    According to the forecast, we literally go from 25 on
    Monday to 50 on Tuesday. Must mean the rain train is pulling into the station. So where is this major artic jail break ive been hearing about since Christmas? I’m noticing the Polar Vortex talk is mute now? BTW I’m not talking about CB.

  5. BH says:

    Under a flood watch now for Southern Ohio in my area.

  6. Jimbo says:

    The one thing all those models have in common is virtually no snow for the tri-state. Cold air almost never catches up to the moisture. None of these storms coming out of west will stop the rain train. It will take something coming up the east coast from Florida. On another note, I see where the temp for the game KC has been raised to 33, a couple days ago it was predicted to be in the single digits. Looks like the artic blast is weaker or at the very least has no staying power.

    • SkiWi says:

      Talk about hype. I’ve been watching videos and reading blogs about the “major artic outbreak” or “The Polar Vortex” since Christmas. Every week the can gets kicked down the road. Sure we get some cold pulled down by the low, but it warms right back up. I’ve rarely had to scrape my windshield this Winter. I think these guys need to go back to the old methods.

    • BH says:

      True. Usually when a low presser works up from the Texas Panhandle and stays west of the Appalachians Mountains that’s when we get are biggest snows here in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky.

  7. Bjenks says:

    Still not set in stone. We could have 6-8 inches of snow down to the parkways when all said and done. The flip to a real winter is about to start. Sustained cold and snow will rule over the next month and a half.

  8. Mike S says:

    Ah, the good ole days. It’s been 25 years since Louisville was digging out of that “light snow/flurries” event. A 16″ snow depth and a glaze of ice underneath that. The next morning, on the 19th, Louisville’s lowest temperature ever at -22.

    • BubbaG says:

      You didn’t get any odd there three big snows a few years ago? Richmond had three within a year, all 16″ or more. Those to me still seem like recent.

      • BubbaG says:

        of not odd

      • Debbie says:

        We had a pretty healthy one in Jan. ’15, I think, here in Bardstown. About a foot or so, started in the early afternoon with rain/sleet then heavy wet snow. That’s about the biggest one we’ve had since. Seems like there’s been others AROUND us, but we can’t get any decent accum. unless we get underneath one of those heavier bands.

      • Mike S says:

        We actually left town just before a snowstorm hit the region although I drove through Chattanooga where there was 6″ on the ground at our hotel the next morning. Then while we were gone on our cruise, the big one hit, dropped 12″, according to my mother-out-law (affectionately called). I recall visiting this site and reading all of the comments. But, yeah…missed them both

    • TennMark says:

      My wife has relatives in Louisville. They say that only days after the thermometer dropped to -22, the snow cover was disintegrating as temperatures hit the 60s!

      As if the January 1994 snowstorm/cold wave wasn’t enough, roughly two weeks later much of Tennessee and southern Kentucky (Bowling Green, Nashville, Memphis, etc) had one of their most destructive ice storms on record.

  9. BengalFan says:

    Seriously, anyone, everyone.,,please don’t say “next week”
    I’m so tired of this. Just be realistic

  10. Jim B says:

    Folks, we all like to have a good time on this blog with our opinions, at least most of us haha… but seriously, be careful out there with this flash freeze coming, that stuff is no joke…. and check on the seniors, especially the ones that may have a difficult time getting around… be safe

  11. Geoff says:

    Nothing to see here….Chris is already posting about artic outbreak for next week or the week after…whatever.

  12. JImCVG says:

    Cincinnati mets are all over the place with this one. Anywhere from 2″ to 8″ by Sunday morning. Looks like central Ohio will potentially see a blizzard.

    • feederband says:

      It’s going to be a WYSIWYG, what you see is what you get. Welcome to the Ohio Valley. This place is tough to predict amounts of frozen stuff.

  13. Tom says:

    This was posted this afternoon by the Jackson, Ky NWS:

    A quick glance at the 12z ECMWF shows a harsh dive into bitter
    winter conditions for next week – as well as significant snow for
    a good portion of the CWA Thursday and over next weekend. Should
    this solution pan out this could turn out to be one of the
    harshest and snowiest mid winter pattern for eastern Kentucky on
    record.

  14. Prelude says:

    I’m rather intrigued what the river county’s get in terms of snow from this storm. Majority of models showing a decent band of snow.

    • BH says:

      Prelude I’m about 45 miles north of the Ohio River and Charleston National Weather Service has us with a big total of 2 inches. And that is from snow blowing off cars coming from the North and landing on the ground. Ha! Ha!

  15. Lotsasnow says:

    Here where i live mets calling for10-15 inchs of snow and i have around 6 on ground now

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