Winter Storm Threat This Weekend

Good evening, folks. A developing winter storm is rolling our way and is going to bring a wide variety of weather our way. This is a high impact storm that can cause local high water issues and bring icy and snow covered roads. Because of the high impact and the potential for some 4″+ snows to show up, let’s roll with a Winter Storm Threat.

A Winter Weather Advisory is already out for much of the state…

There’s a real chance to get some counties upgraded to a full blown Winter Storm Warning later tonight into Saturday.

A few fresh thoughts:

  • The first round of precipitation arrives late tonight into early Saturday. This is mainly heavy rain for much of the state, but far northern Kentucky is walking a fine line. This area is going to be close to the rain/snow/ice line. If they can stay south of that line… look out.
  • Flooding is possible on a local scale for Saturday.
  • Temps tomorrow hit the 50s and may hit 60 across parts of the southern half of the state. The north stays much colder.
  • That cold air dives in during the evening as our main low goes by to our southeast. That means a switch from rain to mix to snow from west to east.
  • A band of heavy snow may develop during this time. Several inches of snow will be possible within this band. I’m still not entirely sure where this sets up.
  • Temps drop through the 20s and into the teens Saturday night, leading to a flash freeze. All that water is really going to lead to some icy issues developing.
  • Wind gusts may top 40mph at times Saturday through Saturday night. Wind chills may drop below zero at times from Saturday night through Monday morning. Early Monday may also see actual air temps in the single digits, with the chance at zero in the north.

Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

Those numbers are likely to go up with the next update tonight on WKYT-TV at 11.

The computer runs are still bouncing around a bit as they try to figure out the low pressure situation with this setup. The European Model has been the one consistent model in terms of track and precipitation amounts. Here’s the latest snow map from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is still jumping around with the low…

But, it’s back to producing a solid swath of snow…

The regular NAM is still putting too much emphasis on the lead low, but has some hefty totals for some…

The GFS is farther south than earlier runs and is trying to pop a second area of snow in the southeast…

The new version of the GFS offers snow for everyone…

I will update all this later tonight.

Looking farther down the road, another arctic front moves by Wednesday with a wave of low pressure along it. That’s likely to bring another round of winter weather our way. That’s another one with some decent potential…

After that comes arctic air with yet another storm threat next weekend. That one has a very interesting look to it with some parallels to the late 70s. The temperatures showing up next weekend are as cold as I’ve ever seen on medium range computer forecast models…

European Model…

GFS

Snow lovers should frame this 10 day snow map from the European Model…

Enjoy your evening and take care.


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45 Responses to Winter Storm Threat This Weekend

  1. msd says:

    What a sight! Never mind if it doesn’t pan out that way, but boy, that’s an exciting look. That 18z FV3 GFS just went BOOM.

  2. nasdaq says:

    We might finally cash in next week, FV3 has system after system moving through…man that pattern looks good for snow lovers

  3. Boone , Kenton, and Campbell has been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnkng

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Wow! Looks like you are going to be one busy weather dude over the next few weeks! However all these things play out the next few weeks it’s sure gonna be interesting! I’m hoping for a little faster change over here but we will just have to wait and see….. have a Good Friday evening.

  5. RdogLburg says:

    1978 all over again..double digit snowfall depth, then near zero temps for a week or so..

  6. UPSLOPE says:

    Imagine what kind of winter we would have if we got even half of what it was showing a week away lol

  7. Chris says:

    The temps heading out of January and into February are mind-blowing. Those are actual temps on the FV3 right?

  8. Jimbo says:

    The Euro Model will probably be the correct one, since it depicts the warm wedge, in all its glory. From SE Kentucky up through West Virginia.

    • Terry says:

      I HOPE we can end this pattern of low pressures tracking on top of and west of us next week. The oscillations and other teleconnections are going in the right direction AGAIN after a midweek fakeout. Never in my life seen such horrible model variance and inconsistency!

      Also, growing snowpack to our NW should help prevent us from a quick warm up after the next arctic shot and favor us to start getting more snow down here.

      I hope we both get a least an inch this weekend and several inches of snow next week and beyond!!!

      Here is to hope that SE KY and West Virginia finally get away from this cold rain after this weekend.

  9. Winterlover says:

    JIMBO BE POSITIVE, HECK IF I GET 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW HERE IN MY NECK OF WOODS I BE TICKLE TO DEATH.

    • Jimbo says:

      I would be happy with that too. But I almost always end up looking at a dusting. The two dusting’s I got didn’t even survive the nighttime, they were melted by daybreak.

  10. Troy says:

    Looks as though the Euro has gone full blown schizophrenic….we ALL know the chance of that scenario playing out is near nonexistent.

  11. Bryan says:

    Can’t wait for my three inches of rain and quarter inch of snow.

    Yea, winter to remember lol

  12. Charles says:

    Louisville NWS just tweeted. Very interesting on what most happen tomorrow night. Check it out.

  13. Debbie says:

    A couple of our local mets are already throwing around the “B” word concerning the potential for heavy snow and 40-45mph winds tomorrow night. Hmmm…

    • BubbaG says:

      Central Ohio, maybe, but not Kentucky. Only an itty bitty KY section on the Ohio river is even part of the WS warning. Folks seems to be getting worked up by more model fodder and mainly rain with snow scraps on the end.

      Normally I’m more sedate, but this respectfully seems like cherry picking model mania.

      • BubbaG says:

        Still seems a sole skimmer aspiring to be an ankle biter for most. That’s optimistic.

        The only B word in Kentucky for this is bourbon.

    • BubbaG says:

      That map seems to show almost all the snow north of KY…. Just an inch or so in KY.

      • Prelude says:

        You gotta go with the Hi-Res models and put more emphasis with the NAM and the HRRR along with the WRF models not so much the GFS. NAM is the higher resolution model so it should be more accurate than the GFS models.

      • Mike says:

        The site I was linking to was for the 240 mark – Jan 28th. Apparently the slider doesn’t “stick” when the URL is linked… Go to 240 hours for some winter eye candy…

  14. Russell says:

    Again….where is the snow…..WKY misses it

  15. MikeS says:

    Louisville NWS seriously mulling idea of upgrading counties of north central Kentucky to winter storm warning…will know in a few hours

    • Kat says:

      Well they are gonna have to include the counties along the river

    • Prelude says:

      It’s a tough one for the NWS pretty much the majority of the weather models is showing the deformation hugging the river county’s. I guess if majority rules, I personally would wait till the 6z model runs come in and go from there. That’s just me and what do I know! lol

  16. TennMark says:

    Currently lots of lightning from thunderstorms that are about to enter far western Kentucky. Memphis is already experiencing thunderstorms. Even St Louis, which had almost a foot of snow earlier in the week, has thundershowers nearby. Kind of crazy!

    The severe thunderstorm threat is low according to the SPC, but the damaging wind threat will be the threat with the highest chances tonight and tomorrow.

    However, as CB touched on, there is a flood threat even though this may be somewhat lost amongst all the snow chat (a Flood Watch is in effect for parts of eastern Kentucky).

  17. Todd says:

    blizzard word around these parts are Rare, but all rain is common, lets see what happens, this is KY so anything is possible?

  18. Bjenks says:

    As I have been stating all week. The true flip to winter is a few days away. Cold and snowy for the foreseeable future all starting with this storm.

  19. Jared from Letcher County says:

    No update from Chris tonight?

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