Winter Storm ALERT

Good Saturday, folks. A significant winter storm is working into the state today and will bring some wild weather with it. From heavy rain to near blizzard conditions, this storm has it all and is likely to cause significant travel issues through Sunday.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are out for the entire region…

Additional counties may be added to the warning as new data arrives today.

This is a multifaceted storm we are dealing with. Here’s a breakdown of what we are facing:

  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will fall across the region today. This may cause local flooding issues to develop. If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, stay alert.
  • Some thunder is even possible as temps make a run at 60 in the south and southeast.
  • Cold air quickly crashes into western and northern parts of the state during the afternoon, changing rain to snow.
  • A steady band of moderate to heavy snow works from west to east across the state into early Sunday. That band of snow gets lighter across eastern Kentucky.
  • A swath of significant snow is likely to fall across parts of western and central Kentucky. That’s oriented from southwest to northeast.
  • Wind gusts of 35-45mph will be likely and that may create near blizzard conditions for a few hours this evening into the wee hours of Sunday for some areas.
  • With temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens, a flash freeze is likely. Throw snow on top of that and travel conditions go downhill quickly. I would not be surprised if a few roads are briefly closed.
  • Snow showers taper to flurries on Sunday as temps struggle to get out of the teens. Wind chills will be single digits to near zero at times.
  • A quick hitting flake maker may zip into western Kentucky Sunday evening.

Here’s my current call for snowfall…

I will make changes to that as the day goes on.

The European Model turns this into a serious snowfall for parts of the state. It has some double digits…

Here’s regional radar to track the heavy rains into the region and the potential for a mix in the north…

I know we are tracking a current winter storm, but another is potentially lurking a few days from now. This system can dump snow and ice on us by Wednesday…

Many updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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55 Responses to Winter Storm ALERT

  1. Kelly Flood says:

    Thanks for this blog. A must read most mornings!

  2. Dawnp007 says:

    Thanks for all you do!!! It’s definitely going to be a wild ride!!

  3. Snow Loving Librarian says:

    The Louisville area was added to the Winter Storm Warning about 15 minutes ago for a forecast of 4-6 inches. I’m sick with an upper respiratory infection and currently unable to sleep due to congestion. At least I can track a winter storm and read the blog!

  4. Terry says:

    I am confused as to why no flood watch has never been issued for SE KY. Newest data now shows 3 inches plus! Oh well, I will watch the usual parts of KY score some snow while the Cumberland reaches bank full!

    • Jimbo says:

      Terry, at least you have company in the warm wedge. I will always be there with you. As for next Wednesdays storm. It looks like another west to east moving system. Which means , here we go again.

      • Andy Rose says:

        Maybe you are the warm wedge 😉

        • Terry says:

          I am ready for the cold wedge without ice and storms that start tracking SE of us instead of on top or NW of SE KY.

          Time for a change! Even I as much as love weather, I am weary and need a cold rain break!

          ‘Make Winter Great Again.’

          LOL

        • StormTrackerWV says:

          LOL @ Andy & Jimbo (I too, live near the warm wedge)

          • Terry says:

            I hope that warm wedge dies out for a few weeks and next week’s arctic blast can push the jet a little SE of us… but, hopefully not all the way south of the Gulf. We need change dang it. We need some Carolina tracking App Runners, which I HAD THOUGHT would have been more common this winter but has failed si far.

            I am a frustrated, cranky SE KY weather geek:)

  5. Andy Rose says:

    You forgot about RAIN for Wednesday. 🙂

    • Terry says:

      I think we are going for a 3 inch type of rain event today in our Cumberland region Andy. The dynamic forcing is very high coupled with the strong jet screaming in from the north…thunder today in our area?!

      I would keep an eye on the water since we never got a flood watch.

  6. Prelude says:

    Well I guess if you’re in the county’s in Kentucky that border the river snow totals look quite impressive. Winds gusting 40-45 mph with moderate to heavy snow and near white out conditions possibly 4-6 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts.

  7. Bus Haynes says:

    Well everybody just be careful out in about today and tomorrow.
    Did anyone happen to see where Frosty the snowman was trying to be wiped out by a guy in a pickup truck. This happen in Kentucky. Well did he get a surprise. The snowman was built on a tree stump. Hope he had his seat belt on. Lol.

  8. Ned says:

    The snow dome in Ashland looks to be holding again. Prepared for flooding rains with a flurry or two at the end.

  9. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Appreciate what you do here so very much. As I said earlier, sounds like you are going to be one busy weather dude! Stay safe and warm everyone. Already got the makings for a big pot of chili! Have a great Satufdayeberyone.

  10. Russell says:

    Fingers crossed for a WKY snow hit….everyone stay safe tonight!

  11. Clapp Landscaping says:

    NAM still looks impressive for Ohio river counties. 12k looks heavier. 3k still running

    • Prelude says:

      One would think the NAM is overdoing snow totals for the river county’s in Kentucky surprisingly it has support from other short range models. If the NAM totals are correct and winds 40-45 mph wouldn’t that qualify for borderline blizzard conditions?

  12. Prelude says:

    I-71 corridor from Louisville to Cincinnati looks to be the sweet spot for snow.

  13. Dr Wx says:

    Well looks likes some things never change, Fayette county outside looking in. Fencetucky, ground zero.

    • Terry says:

      Trying being in far SE KY….supposedly the coldest/snowiest part of KY, but if you don’t live high up over 2,000 ft (less than 10% do), you have much less snow on average than Central KY, especially up your way!

      The only thing worse than the economy is winter weather down here…lol but not really;(

  14. Joyce says:

    Not much for Burgin again. ☹️❄️

    • Debbie says:

      I’m in Bardstown. Unless we get under a band of heavier snow, which is a possibility, we don’t have a chance, either. But something about this storm is sticking in my head that it could be worse than what is being predicted.

  15. Prelude says:

    Icon model on board for the Kentucky river county’s getting a decent thumping of snow 4-8 inch looks to be the general agreement. That’s pretty much all models agreeing.

  16. Mike S says:

    https://w1.weather.gov/data/TIR/FFGKY

    I look at similar pages like this. Often, the 3-hour flash flood guidance product is used. There are a number of contiguous counties that do bear watching…Bell, Harlan, Letcher, Perry, and Knott especially. But, I was surprised by the higher values. So, hopefully, other than some minor flooding issues, things won’t get too bad.

    • Terry says:

      I would say the 3 hour for sure want be exceeded want be exceeded anywhere due to lack of convective activity but maybe the 24 hr will be the close call. Like you, minor flooding is more likely than major, even if we come in a little below 3 inches total. The overall rainfall rates look to average only between a quarter to half inch per hour, so it will be the duration we need to watch!

    • Andy Rose says:

      This is if the streams and rivers are at low flow if I read it correctly which is not our situation.

      • Mike S says:

        Good point. But, I think River Forecast Centers are more concerned about flow, since river flooding is their niche. Flash Flood Guidance is more of a soil thing. If the soil cannot handle any more rain, flash flooding, which is more dangerous, occurs.

  17. Thanks for all the hard work y’all do to keep us updated Chris! It’s very much appreciated!

  18. Dr Wx says:

    NWS now saying less then 1″ around fayette county area. Only time will tell i guess.

  19. Bryan says:

    What an awesome winter weekend-3″ of rain, and a quarter inch of snow if we are lucky. Apparently our midweek and next weekend snows are already backing off? Is winter still just a week away?

    this winter is the epitome of misery.

  20. Bryan says:

    Here’s the cliff notes on the upcoming update:
    *Northern Kentucky gets all the snow. As is usually the case
    *Central KY, a festive 1″
    *Southeast KY, may as well move the ark from up northern KY to down here, because we need it.
    *Gets cold for 2 days. Another warm push of air just in time for the next storm system. More rain. Potential clipper turns out to be another northwesterly flow bust.
    *Euro continues to show epic amounts of snow and cold, until it doesn’t . That’s ok, because the Euro has taken more drugs than Keith Richards.

    Great winter

  21. Rickie H says:

    I know that is a lot of rain. But remember the flash freeze…. the ice… it may not be much but a little can make a mess of things.

  22. Bryan says:

    NWS says, what pattern change? More warm air, cold rain and seasonally cold temps to finish the work week. Let me guess, it’s the following week that the pattern changes, LOL

    Laurel County
    Today Rain. Patchy fog. Highs in the lower 50s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
    Tonight Patchy fog through the night. Rain in the evening. Snow likely late. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest with gusts to around 25 mph late. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
    SundayMuch cooler. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow early, then flurries possible late in the morning. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the morning. Chance of snow 40 percent.
    Sunday NightCold. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 10 to 15. North winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
    Martin Luther King Jr DaySunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Light winds.
    Monday NightMostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
    TuesdayWarmer. Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
    Tuesday NightCloudy with rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
    WednesdayRain. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

    Wednesday NightRain or snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
    ThursdayMostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow likely. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
    Thursday NightMostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s.
    FridayPartly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s.

  23. BubbaG says:

    You folks to the north of Richmond, have fun shoveling! 🙂 😉 I’m gonna dip mu’ toes in thu Jacuzzi baby, while you all be gigging out! 🙂

  24. Bjenks says:

    It is now casting time. Throw all the models out and look out window and keep eye on radar. All of you writing winter off will not be singing the same song tomorrow, next weekend and beyond. The NAM is slamming the state with widespread snow and the cold that moves in will NOT moderate for the Wed system dumping more snow along with a series of clippers through next weekend with bitter cold all the way to the gulf coast. The flip to a real deal winter is about to happen. Not a “Day After Tomorrow” flip, but you get my drift…..no pun intended.

  25. Winterlover says:

    Well it seems it’s the same ole naysayers sing the blues on this blog. Bjenk is right on the money he sees what I’m hearing what’s coming down the pipe and what so sad is were not out of the woods with today’s weather maker that’s coming today. I’m under a winter storm warning . Chris has been saying the potential was there but some people think they know it all.

  26. Bobt says:

    NAM said bam for me back in December and we barely got a dusting. We are two months into meteorogical winter and most of Kentucky has not seen their first measurable snow. Its been a dud so far.

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