Good afternoon, folks. Sunny skies and frigid temperatures are showing up across the region to end the week and kick off the weekend. Once into the weekend, a couple of light snow and flurry makers roll through. This serves as the opening act to a very harsh period of winter weather.
The weekend light snow potential appears to be greatest across the northern half of the state. The GFS and Canadian Models are hitting this area with the greatest potential for light accumulations…
Canadian
GFS
The setup for Monday night into Tuesday has a very dynamic look to it. Brutally cold air is pushing an arctic front into Kentucky, but most of the moisture is in the cold air behind it. This happens as a wave of low pressure develops along the front.
With the snow falling into arctic air, snow ratios will be way up, giving our region the potential for decent snow totals. In looking at the setup, I’ve seen similar ones from the past produce thundersnow and whiteout conditions.
The GFS and Canadian Models are super similar with this setup and show another snow maker right behind it in the brutally cold air…
GFS
Canadian
The Icon looks very much like the last night’s European Model with a stronger low on Tuesday…
Temps after this have the potential to go well below zero for the middle and end of next week…
Again, you should be winterizing your homes and cars to prepare for what’s coming.
I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 today and another KWC update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. Whether a big snow materializes or not, being prepared for extended cold is a good idea. You just never know. Excited to see if it gives us some good snow or not. Have a great afternoon all.
With the weekend light snow now gone. I suspect by Monday we will be looking at a rain maker ending as backside flurries. Followed by a couple days of intense dry cold. Then this scenario repeats.
I’m not sure how anyone could disagree!!!!!!! So Frustrating. snow?No!
I know that it was supposed to be light snow this weekend, but looks like it will be so light you won’t be able to even see it!
A couple nights of -5 to +5 temps do a lot of good in killing the bugs so hopefully we’ll have a good summer.
Not True
You forgot to change your name Hamlin 😉 j/k
That wasn’t me, genius.
Here’s a suggestion, why don’t you all just wait and see what happens next week with the weather. Then report what you received. Quit complaining that’s not going to bring you any snow !!! My God give it a rest !!!
Because even when its reported after the fact it’s still viewed as complaining
This is the forecast on 27 right now…”A cold and snowy pattern takes hold of the Commonwealth through the weekend and into next week.”
I guess the weekend part needs to be taken off!
We are about 78 hours away from Monday evening.
The models are NO GOOD, so lets give our own odds of this snow happening (I mean more that 1 inch!!!!)
My odds of snow less than 1 inch for Monday night: 25:1
My odds are that we have 6-8 through Tuesday with 25:1 ratios!!!!
I like your positivity!!! It looks like our odds are total opposite.
For your location correct?
Great insight by nrgjeff via americanwx “Tuesday is the Battle Royale. ECMWF and ICON insist snow all over. Euro has a true southern stream wave with weak surface low. GFS just has flurries and snow showers post frontal, GFS has a much weaker southern stream vort max, and favors a strong northern stream. We’ve seen that so many times in recent years. Skill favors the ECMWF. However recent history, sadly, favors the GFS. We’ll see; this is a robust cold pattern.”
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51852-january-2019-mediumlong-range-pattern-discussion/?page=33&tab=comments#comment-5148976
Rinse and repeat… cold rain with a dusting on the backside for Monday.
Not CB fault obviously just the way it is here in KY. 1.4” of measured snow on the ground in Berea since November so far… Big Money haha
I’m confused as to why you guys want so much snow I live in and area where we got alot of snow and have to deal with all the headaches all the accidents shoveling all the snow to me it just a pain and can’t wait for warmer weather.
I think its because were teased so much here. Always on the fence. Instead we get flooding cold rain that’s only good for catching pneumonia. I don’t speak for everyone just think the majority of people on here just want that one decent snow each winter. They’re hard to come by though.
Because I like snow and cold. I also like hot and dry. I also like everything in between, except for cold rain, not keen on that. I like change, I like seasons.
So, now back to our chances for snow next week!
Everybody is different when it comes to natue I myself like snow it just add beauty to our landscape. As far dealing with it doesn’t bother me at all you just gotta know how to deal with it.
Yep!!! As we have to deal without it as well.
NWS Morristown is upbeat about the potential for snow here in East TN (for the first time this winter). They are great for our area, and to see them on the same page as Chris has me excited. They even acknowledge the greater snow ratios in this system. If the models don’t change till Sunday, we may have our first winter storm watch in our area (don’t think we had a single one last year).
We had the one in Harlan back in December that went bust but next week’s system is totally different. Fingers, toes and all crossed!
Beware! “The Warm Wedge” for next weeks storm.
A warm wedge sounds thoroughly unpleasant…
Different type of system. This is more like a low pressure developing on an arctic front with crazy ratios that can lead to decent accumulations. Won’t be those huge snowflakes, but smaller that accumulate fast.
Yea the worse for traveling..Soon or if it starts snowing roads become very slick soon as snow hits the road with the cold temps..Surprised no one mention the Euro operational..
Looking at the GFS run sounding for Knoxville I get a temp of about -12C at 850mb. This would argue for 15:1 or so according to the graph I found on this page (http://lukemweather.blogspot.com/2010/12/finallyhow-do-we-calculate-snow-ratios.html)
But yet, this is NOT a situation where moisture is outpacing the cold like last time. According to my understanding, the only way this doesn’t deliver is if there’s no moisture, not that there’s no cold air.
I’m taking an honest look at it. The ICON model, which I normally don’t follow, says the warm wedge will be overrun and overwhelmed. Looks like a good hit for Charleston based on the track of the Low, if that should verify.
Euro from earlier today..Maybe we can get a little more moisture for a big dog..lol..No longer have wxbell so found this lurking around..
https://i.ibb.co/SVGqG4H/12512.png