Good afternoon, folks. Your friendly weatherdude only has a short time to update, but I wanted to drop by for an afternoon quickie to get you caught up on the pattern ahead. A pattern that will feature dangerously cold temps and wind chills in the week ahead.
As expected, light snow last night and this morning put down enough snow to cause some travel issues. Another system tries to do the same this evening, especially across the northern half of the state…
The arctic front is still on schedule for a Monday night arrival time in the bluegrass state. The wave of low pressure along the front shows up one run then disappears the next, then shows up… You get the idea. It’s a computer model and that happens.
The NAM lost the wave this morning then found it again a few hours later. That wave allows for a decent snowfall in central and eastern Kentucky Monday night and Tuesday…
The early day run of the European Model has the wave, but is flatter and farther south than most of the earlier runs…
Snow on the Gulf Coast? Still, the model suggests accumulating snows for much of the region, with the greatest potential in the southeast.
The Canadian Model is similar with this first system, but the thing I like about this model is the one right behind it…
The GFS is still too progressive with the arctic front and wave of low pressure, but it’s better than it was and is also picking up on that system behind it…
Bitterly cold temps come in behind all this for the middle and end of the week. Below zero lows are likely to show up…
Wind chill advisories and warnings will likely be needed from Wednesday through Friday of this week. It may feel -5 to -25 during this time…
That’s some dangerous stuff, folks.
I will try to throw you another update after the UK game. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris! Enjoy the game! GO CATS!!
A little dab here and a little dab over here.
The quasi snow drought looks to continue into the near future.
Thanks for the update. This winter’s theme has been, “the next one has possibilities”.
And so was last winter. And the one before that…{{{sigh}}} I live in Bardstown and seems like the only way we can get any is to hope that banding hovers right over top of us. On a day when it warms drastically and it’s gone before sunrise.
Well, I made a no negative commitment to Drew (See Early Morning Blog Post). If I perchance can get at least 3 inches or more at my location next Tuesday, I will refrain from negativity against this lousy-to-date winter for at least a while and give February a chance. Again, I do think we have THE BEST chance so far this year in east KY for widespread ground cover but I am not overly excited and expect a few inches. Here is to hoping for overachievement:)
Terry I try to not make negative comments. Sometimes I think some of us mistake the blog for a forecast. It is only Chris’ thoughts from looking at data and models. I do that too sometimes. But I sure do appreciate him in all kinds of weather. I hope it snows a bunch on all of us. But if it doesn’t, life will go in….have a good evening.
Maybe it will Terry don’t give up hope!!! Stay warm everyone!!
We as humans want what we want I get that I want snow to I look forward to winter every year thinking this one will be different this year no such luck I farm for a living and it’s the same in the summer when I need rain I get frustrated when it misses me or when I plan a week out for no rain to accomplish things and it does rain it has cost me lots of money in the past I get no forecast is perfect but I think one of the biggest problems is trying to forecast a week out when I was a child 3 days out was long way out and another problem is a lot of the time they wanna be the first but for me I’d rather they be right
True. And back then, 3 days out was pretty accurate. Now we’ve got the models that aren’t. People can argue the point, but in all honesty, in most recent years, it always comes down to “now-casting”. I’m guilty as the next person as far as model-watching, and yep, finding myself disappointed when nothing happens, but if you have to look out the window and see what it’s doing in your neighborhood during any given weather event, then why not do that anyway and to heck with anything more than 24 hrs. out?! Makes sense to me.
Sorry Debbie but I have to correct you. It is NOT true that forecasts of old were better than those of today. While it may appear so, this is largely because we humans are biased observers with a tendency to weight recent events over the past. If you gauge model accuracy by the numbers it’s not even a contest. I do apologize but this is such a pervasive myth out there that should be ramped down.
https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/our-weather-prediction-models-keep-getting-better-and-hurricane-irma-is-the-proof
Quick summar- little to no snow, and lots of cold next week.
Good
Looking forward to Sunday evening’s run from the NAM…better be picking up on that Low or there’s going to be some disappointment again.
We’re the snow that been pretty much forecasted for next week?