Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another busy day for your friendly weatherdude, so this is a quick update with the chance I don’t get around to another one this evening. It’s all eyes on a very harsh period of winter weather for the week ahead. Arctic temps and snow chances take center stage.
The first system is out arctic front slamming in here Monday night. That boundary will have temps spiking ahead of it and tanking behind it with a band of snow taking over. As expected, this will primarily impact central and eastern Kentucky…
Right now, the best chance area looks like a few inch snowfall, with higher amounts near the Virginia border counties. Exactly where that swath begins in central Kentucky is still in question. Winds will be cranking and create some blowing snow for areas getting in on the action.
I like what the Canadian is doing in terms of coverage, but it’s too skimpy in the far southeast…
The NAM and GFS are a little more narrow with the snow band, but heftier in the southeast, which I like…
NAM
GFS
School delays and cancellations will likely come from that across the eastern half of the state.
As that system moves away, arctic snows break out from west to east across the entire state Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This is a low QPF scenario as it’s showing up in arctic air, so the atmosphere maximizes the snow potential. Notice how the numbers on the Canadian jump up when we add Tuesday and Wednesday together…
If you’re into the whole frozen tundra thing, Wednesday and Thursday are right up your alley. Bitterly cold temps and gusty winds will combine to send wind chills toward dangerously cold levels…
That’s some cold stuff, folks, but we are getting to the time of year I really start craving spring. Unfortunately, our winters no longer show up until late in the season and cut into our true spring. The past decade of weather has proven this to be the case more times than not. You know what I have to say about that? Blah, Blah, Blah!! 🙂
I’ll try to update again late this evening, but the long and winding road has my name on it. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.
Thanks Chris! As you travel just be careful on that winding road! We need you to get us through this crazy weather! Have a good afternoon.
I hope not to much of a temp spike its already in the mid 40s here.
Terry, you still remaining faithful for the 3 inches in eastern ky? Any chance Ashland can get 3 inches out of this?
Doubtful for us. Probably get some bitter cold with some flurries up to a coating.
I agree, another rain to backside flurry event. Most likely a dusting. Somebody might squeak out an inch if they are lucky.
A chance but I think probably closer to 2 for you. Still looks like the best snow for many of east of I-65 so far this winter.
I would be so excited for two! Honestly anything over an inch and I’d be happy terry!
Anyone had this happen?
Three days out from possible snowstorm- “Yes! Looks like a whopper for my area! Models looking good!”
Two days out from possible snowstorm- “Snowmaps are out and my area is set for the bullseye!”
One day out from snowstorm- “Models showing a slight shift north, but still hopeful.”
Day of expected snowstorm-“Slept through the dusting!”
I am grateful for this blog and all the daily models. Just hoping for one snows that blankets all of KY.
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It’s a dud…. and the precip trends continue
Wonder if we will see any watches/warnings for southeast Kentucky? Pretty borderline scenario but I could see a watch going up for Bell/Harlan/Leslie/Knott/Letcher and Pike.
Running out of time for a good WKY snow…still standing by my RIP snow prediction.
Every storm looks good and gradual backs off. Over it. I guess I’ll have to travel sometime to see a snow. I remember as a kid. Ponds and lakes froze enough to drive vehicles on. Snow on the ground for 2 months straight. Is it climate change or what. We never get snows anymore.
It’s been ages, but we finally have a Winter Storm Watch for E TN. NAM is not backing down either regardless of the Euro, which has been poor of late. SREF also increased totals. It looks like the precipitation will fall at 7AM, perhaps the worst possible time with respect to commutes. Suspect schools will be closed here on Tuesday. Over night model runs remaining, then we nowcast.
We got out watch!!!
Going to try to add my pennies to a dollar and finally cash in on at least some snow. Still, I dont see many of us in far SE KY getting too much over 3 but there is the look that some, especially high up, could overachieve:)
Our watch….bad phone grammar.
MRX goes with WSW for east Tenn, wonder what JKL will do?
WSW out of JKL for SE counties, I fully expect these to go to advisory https://www.weather.gov/jkl/
Probably but dont kill the mood…lol.
Progressive nature of this system is the wrench that could keep us lower and put back into an advisory tomorrow instead of a warning. I hate to say it but GFS has done fairly well and often better than the other main models of late and still isnt impressive looking for SE KY:(
I’m changing my forecast totals from 0- 1/2 to 0- -2 inches for Ashland can I do that jimbo? Is it possible for us to have -2 inches? I’m thinking that’s more possible than actually getting snow.
Doesn’t that mean snow will accelerate from the ground up to the sky?
Yes you r correct!!! just for that correct answer you win a all inclusive snow package that will probably be lost in the mail and you’ll never see but HEY we’re use to it lol.
I can see how we could end up with a negative number. Snow falls and melts on contact. I suppose if enough flakes fell and melted into a rain gauge. If that could happen anywhere, it would be the tri-state.
Same old story. Looks good 3 days out to just a dusting in actuality.
How much fun is this…..who will get this monster 2″ snowstorm?
If you miss out, you may be able to get in on the monster 2″ snowstorm behind it.
Looks like my watch prediction turned out correct. lol
I see where Winter Storm Watches and Advisories have been issued in Kentucky and Tennessee. That means Charleston NWS will probably be issuing a flood watch for the tri-state shortly.
Let’s put our pennies together and cash in on a small snow Jimbo before the warmup!
New GFS is a bust for pretty much all of ky. Go figure! What time does the new nam run?
I’ve said all winter the snowy precip trend was set early on, don’t bet against the trends, don’t even need the models, they are good for creating a little fun and drama, that’s about it
So you are saying for the rest of this winter we won’t have a good snow simply because it started off with no snow? Lol
Trends my friend, it hasn’t been wrong yet this winter, not even close…. to answer your question, No, we won’t see a big snow, said that in November, also saying we say a day or two of 70 degree weather in Feb.
See
70 in February is not unusual. I like it.
Sadly from a forecasting control, the most recent trends are important. Factor in that we have seen different types of systems miss us to the east, west, north and south…. Yep, I would say far more likely not a lot of snow this winter than will, for most of KY. Close to a sure bet.
CB not tweeting anything about the new models tells us all we need to know about this “snow storm” lol
While skeptical, this seems too close for even my pessimism to discount. I will say that this is likely the last best chance for many of us this winter with the predicted warmup coming in February. If this system fails to produce, I’m throwing in the towel.
Yeah, even if we get bumped down to an advisory tomorrow instead of a winter storm warning, I will still remain optimistic that this is the biggest event for us so far this dreadful winter. Hands down, this our best shot of snow so far as week 1 and 2 of February looks terribly warm and rainy again! Very weak lasting Polar Vortex as NAO isnt blocking AT ALL for the near future. I hope later in February, a better pattern returns but will will be about out of ideal snow threats by then!
I haven’t seen winter storm warnings Terry where are you general area isn’t it a winter weather advisory?
A Winter Storm Watch…so far. In Harlan Co. It may not go to a Warning tomorrow as the data still isnt agreeing on all models
I really think an advisory is all we will get…I’m just not seeing 4″+ of snow anywhere but maybe the highest point of Black Mountain.
Shoot, if the current models runs dont correct later, we may get downgraded from Winter Sorm Watch to just a Special Weather Statement!
What an awful trend….hope this doesn’t verify tomorrow:(
Notice when nws is on board. Chris ain’t and vice versa. I guess if was Lexington under winter storm watch he would tweet or post. But the nws has been pretty accurate this year
We get “regional” storms now, because not much falls on CB’s viewing area- hence the regional reference 😉
Perhaps we will get another spring surprise like last year. Kind of not looking good for big snow though. January is toast and February is not looking good, unless we want to spin and cherry pick, followed by self created disappointment.
Why do we even bother with using extreme phrases such as polar vortex? This was supposed to be a prolonged period of harsh weather. I’m seeing 3 days max of very cold to cold weather followed by upper 40’s and 50’s by the weekend. This is the NWS forecast for London, KY
So I guess our 1” blizzard will be gone by Thursday. Wow, some polar vortex. Lol
Yes this whole winter has been overhyped since Halloween.
Not by Chris
You obviously didn’t see his winter outlook on WKYT….24″-30″ for Louisville metro eastward…. Not sure what else you would call that.
A forecast
I can’t help but laugh a little when in Ky, there is a Winter Storm Watch, Warning, etc put out for a possible couple inches of snow hahaha
Perhaps you need to read WHY they issued it
I know why, and understand why advisories are issued, but there’s nothing STORM about it haha
I’m pretty sure 4 inches in 12 hour period is warning material. That’s criteria everywhere. So chuckle all you want. There giving 3-5 in the watch area
Haha
Where in the watch area? I’ve only seen 2-4 for the entire watch area
I would have thought Advisory status, but not my responsibility, not my decision. They did mention possible 5″ amounts within that 2-4″ area.
Well it’s their responsibility, not yours to decide. If data seems to indicate a downgrade, I’m sure they will make the right decision and downgrade to Advisory status. Otherwise, I wouldn’t entrust my life and property on your forecast of trends either. One day, one day you’ll be wrong and wished you have been better prepared and at least considered the information or forecast. Ain’t no haha about that, now is there?
Haha, the fact you’re so serious warrants a haha. Wasn’t trying to get anyone bent out of shape, lil buddy haha. Call it a storm if you like, just an opinion
Seems mets are getting pretty loose with the term for winter storm, since we have seen nothing close, yet apparently we have had a few “storms” already. The criteria is 4” or more of snow and 3” if snow and mix for the event. We have been nowhere near that, unless adding all past events together. Even then most of us are not there. That is unless we are talking “regional” storms 😉 🙂
Agreed
BubbaG, we will be pushing 50 degrees again Saturday and Sunday
I think the criteria for a Winter Storm is actually too low and should be pushed up to 6″ instead of 4,” but, the winter of 2014-2015 helped me realize what a true harsh winter was like.
Wsaz said 1-2 inches for basically all of eastern ky and some of central.. we shall see
They’ve been surprisingly accurate so far this year.
I agree melva
I am rooting for you all and us poor SE KY folks. I also hope the GFS either changes it’s mind and adds back more snow or actually misses…been alarmingly accurate as of late and didn’t show love earlier at the midday update!
Rooting for you as well Terry. NOAA now showing 1-3 inches for Ashland on Tuesday. First time I’ve seen that written on their site all year.
As much as I like snow and winter looking a week out50 degree temps are looking more likely I hope I miss it the snow that is so I don’t have to contend with sloppy muddy mess in a week this winter has been an absolute joke no sustained cold no Alberta clippers not even a decent snow I mean looking on here u think we lived in Florida all the excitement for a dusting of snow you know the funny thing is there is always a snowstorm a week out that never pans out but 50s and rain a week out it will happen somebody explain that to me
Just except things for the way they are.
I just don’t see how here in eastern Ky if we get to the 50’s as is forecast tommorow how we overcome that with the snow,but I will wait to see what Chris says,it just seems like we would pull in the warm air but he’s the expert. I would be happy with 2 inches lol but if we don’t get it life goes on. Hope everyone stays warm this week.Terry I hope you get your snow I would rather you get it then have it myself!
The NAM Oz run has the front bogging.
It appears to me that there is not going to be much time for the snow to accumulate. ( maybe three to four hours)
Hence the low forecast. We will probably get a 1 to 3” map, knowing it will be the low end, just like every system so far.
I hope the models correct back some tomorrow….
..trying to pull the life support plug in SE KY already! Geeze, it would be insane to go from a Winter Storm Watch straight to only a Special Weather Statement tomorrow evening. Probably be a Winter Weather Advisory but this is some crap.
Chris I love you but you’re being real shady about this snow event.
I agree I love chris and he’s the best met out there but hes not saying much. Heck I don’t blame him the ways these computer models are how could anyone forecast. I’m not a weatherman but I got a tiny feeling this could possibly become a hit for central and eastern ky. Nothing too big but good. Keep on chris I’m not blaming you.