High Water Threat Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. A front is in the process of stalling out across the region and that will become the focal point for rounds of showers and storms. This action may lead to high water issues late Wednesday and Thursday. It’s also a setup that can take us from record highs to snowflakes in just a few hours time.

Today will feature scattered showers, with an outside chance for a rumble of thunder. The best chance for some of that thunder may wait until late today into the evening…

Our stalled front will really kick up some showers and storms as Wednesday rolls on. This will carry us through Thursday night, bringing the potential for flooding rains.

Check out some of the numbers…

Euro

GFS

Canadian

A few strong storms will also be possible on Thursday.

Temperatures on Thursday have a chance to get a little crazy in central and eastern Kentucky. Low and middle 70s are possible if we can get just a few breaks in the clouds. As the front plows through Thursday night, temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s within just a few hours. That can also lead to a brief period of light snow…

Seasonally cold air filters in for Friday and Saturday, with additional systems moving our way from Sunday into early next week. The models differ on how to play these.

The new GFS continues to advertise much colder solutions…

The GFS does not…

The Euro is also sniffing something out…

Check out what follows that on the Euro…

That’s a lot of winter!

I will have updates later today so check back. Have a good one and take care.


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41 Responses to High Water Threat Ahead

  1. AC says:

    There’s been a lot of places that normally see quite a good amount of snowfall for this time in the season, but there’s been another snow drought. The way this winter has unfolded, we’re going to be hard pressed to find any storm that can come along in terms of snow that will be memorable. I’m ready to write this winter off. It’s been one “possibility” after another that has not come to fruition. Maybe we can break 90 later in the month, and get 25″ of rain too. Crazy weather.

  2. Farmer 43 says:

    Warmth and rain always wins it’s kinda like the movies the good guys always win it’s been the same ole song and dance it’s gonna snow and get cold it will get cold again probably when it’s time for spring and nobody wants it

    • BH says:

      I do not want a cold spring for sure. I’ll take 70 to 80 any day. At least my furnace is not running non stop like last week. Those high utility bills just don’t get it.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Warmth and rain always wins? Yeah, in May.

      • Nate says:

        Geeze Jeff, why are you always such a jerk on here? Do you really feel the need to belittle other people’s comments on a weather-blog? Is it really necessary to always have a rebuttal to someone stating their thoughts? Were you abused as a child? Seriously, who hurt you and why do you always have to be so terrible and negative? You must live a sad life if the only thing you have to do is call people out on here. Please, get a life, make friends, go to church once in awhile, do SOMETHING other than be a menace on a local weather website. I know you don’t care about anyone but yourself, but, c’mon man, leave others alone, and operate by the Thumper rule from now on- “If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all”. It must really suck to be you, hiding behind a keyboard, smarting off to others. You are one sad, pathetic, and terrible individual. Time to turn that around Jeff! Life is too short to be hiding behind a keyboard spouting off nastiness. Get out and enjoy the weather for crying out loud.

    • AC says:

      You’re probably more right than you know.

  3. Prelude says:

    That’s a lot of winter!!? I just don’t understand, where??? The cold and the snow always seems to be a week out and 9 times out of 10 it just doesn’t occur. The GFS FV3 last week showed big snowfall for the Ohio Valley this week that’s not remotely happening in fact it’s completely opposite. Heavy rains very warm temperatures possibly record breaking warmth and flooding. This new GFS FV3 model in my opinion is horrible inaccurate garbage the old GFS seems to be the more accurate one and that’s not saying much. The Euro has been nothing short of bad as of late. I do not understand showing inaccurate long term model solutions. I keep hearing about the possibility’s of cold a week away for months now but are the models not picking up on the possibility’s of very warm weather a week away? If so why does that possibility of warm weather not get mentioned a week away until it’s actually upon us?

    • Bobt says:

      The models showed a period of sustained cold coming in right after the new year. It did not happen. Then it was pushed back to the middle of January. It did not happen. We finally ended up with a three or four day stretch of cold last week that gave way to a beautiful weekend and warm week or rain. All we have left now is mid-February and March. Can we get snow? Yes, but we will also get some nice days in between just because winter is on the way out the door..

      • Prelude says:

        So all models were showing cold there wasn’t any models showing opposite? If that’s the case then that’s really pathetic and weather models have a very long long way to go.

        • Farmer 43 says:

          The people who use the weather models should know better but we live in a world of everybody wants to be first but when their wrong nothing is mentioned but when they get one right they let everyone know prelude I agree how can all models be so bad I think it’s the worse I’ve ever seen

  4. Prelude says:

    If dropping temperature means the return to normal with 30’s and 40’s for 2 or 3 days and teens at night then what’s the big deal about that? Temperatures soaring into the 60’s and 70’s should be the bigger story here in my opinion (of course the excessive rainfall and flooding potential). A cold front dropping temperatures back to normal or slightly below for a couple of days maybe a small reality check to some because of how above normal temperatures have been the past few days. Minus that 3 day polar vortex which was impressive but still literally had no staying power compared to the warmer temperatures. A few weeks back a lot of mets were talking about a pattern change to cold “winter is coming” fastened your seatbelts. I sure didn’t hear about temperatures heading into the 60’s and 70’s with the possibility of record breaking warmth. Were the models not showing that as a possibility? I’m not venting about the warmth I like warmer temperatures. What I am having a hard time understanding is why so much focus on certain models that show cold a week away and not talk about the possibilities of the warmth a week away?

  5. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Cuz’ controversy creates cash!

    • Prelude says:

      Kind of like that saying “Peace Sells But Who’s Buying”

      • Prelude says:

        Two weeks ago look at all the different Ensemble showing snow…. well here we are with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s and 70’s with flooding rains. What a complete joke for the snow lovers.

  6. Schroeder says:

    I never look at any weather models, and I just take a guess at long range personal predictions based on the upper level winds. It really looks like the upper level winds which are strongly westerly and that’s why the cold fronts keep ” hanging up ” and not moving further south. Lows moving along the stationary front bring the rains until the warm front goes through and cuts off the moisture and then the cold front moves through with a line of heavy showers and falling temperatures and what moisture is left, may or may not turn to snow or other type of frozen precipitation. Then it is colder and drier for a few days and then the process starts all over again. It’s been a very dominate weather pattern that has been going on for almost two years now. What the next dominate weather pattern brings will be most interesting. With all the record rains I’m going for the D word ( DROUGHT )

    • AC says:

      In terms of drought, it’s really a hard one to call. We typically have at least one 6″ + snow here every four years on average, but that trend’s been busted. We also usually have a moderate drought in the summertime once every 5 to 10 years as well, but the last ten years have averaged very wet.

      You *could* call for a drought this summer, and your odds are still 50/50. However, I do think we’re due one…

  7. Ed says:

    Happy National Weather Person’s Day

  8. BubbaG says:

    There’s a song in all of this….. Give me a rockabilly rythm: There’s a whole lotta winter, but not a whole lotta snow!

    All this rain…..We might be a tropical forest this summer. Jeepers.

  9. Bryan says:

    After this past weekend, I’m ready to cash in and move on to Spring. I spent the better part of Sunday hiking in the Smokies where the temperature was in the 50’s, a few more weeks there and the early season wildflowers will be popping up.

    This winter has been a trainwreck for snow and cold lovers. The “polar vortex” was but 2-3 days of extreme cold that had zero staying power. Everything is being dominated by a hyperactive southern flow that does nothing but shunt cold air and keep the rain train alive. Should have seen this coming when we had incredible heat and humidity into early October, but a cold November offered some hope.

  10. Troy says:

    And the trend continues… Flooding rains followed by a brief 2-3 stint of cold temps with backside flurries. Same pattern different week.

  11. WestKyGuy says:

    Chris, happy National Weatherperson’s Day!
    Thanks for all you do for us.

  12. SkiWi says:

    Bastardi is still riding his “epic” Winter bull. I think the Groundhog does a better job.

  13. Russell says:

    Winter has left the building.

  14. Ruth says:

    Around here (near Ripley, WV), 95% of the time, we usually get some winter around Valentine’s weekend. It’s almost a tradition. LOL So, I’m not surprised to see something popping up on one of the models. With the way this winter has been so far, though, I’ll be surprised if it’s more than what we’ve been getting. We’ll see what happens, if anything.

  15. Jimbo says:

    I am thinking the old GFS will be right, with the rain train rolling thru next week, probably even longer.The cold will be brief, My predicted highs of 35,45 and 55 Saturday thru Monday. And for added insult, a couple systems might end as the dreaded backside flurries.

  16. Mike S says:

    Euro being “cold-hearted” by Valentine’s Day…we’ll see

  17. toney says:

    our winters around here seem to really not get going until late jan. a nd last through most of april…..winter is far from over.

    • AC says:

      The chances of a significant snowfall in February for Kentucky are higher than most other months. But then, most months in Kentucky don’t see February temperatures on the threshold of busting 80 degrees. This kind of extreme warmth can actually result in 90 degree readings and a severe weather and tornado outbreak into March if the pattern doesn’t change. The northern/southern jet streams are going to bump heads as they always do that time of year….except with more amplitude this time due to all the above-normal temperatures and moisture.

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