A Cold Break In The Active Setup

Good Friday, folks. Mother Nature is slapping us right in the face today as wintertime temps surge back in. In some areas, it’s feeling 60 degrees colder than the highest numbers we had on Thursday. That’s a big old OUCH! This cold air hangs into the start of the weekend, but another active setup kicks on by Sunday.

Temps take center stage today with reading in the 20s this morning and upper 20s to low 30s for afternoon highs. Winds will be gusty and it’s going to feel much colder. Single digit wind chills may be noted this morning.

Even with sunshine today, temps may not reach the freezing mark in many areas with gusty winds adding to the cold. A similar setup will be noted for Saturday.

Sunday will kick off another active setup with light rain and a mix of rain and snow moving in. The NAM shows areas across the north and east as having the best chance for a little frozen precipitation…

The setup then turns ugly through next week as multiple systems roll our way, each bringing a lot of precipitation…

GFS

Canadian

Additional high water issues will be possible as early as late Monday into Tuesday.

This active pattern shows no signs of letting up and it’s really becoming annoying. The new long range European Model that goes through the middle of March and it shows the above normal precipitation centered right on our region…

The same model does skew temperatures a little colder than normal during the same time…

That setup leads to snow chances through March…

Please… PLEASE… Not another late arriving spring!!!! Ugh.

I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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76 Responses to A Cold Break In The Active Setup

  1. Terry says:

    “All aboard”! Free tickets for the 2018-2019 Rain Train. Final Destination yet to be determined…lol

    At this point, I am about to the point of making t shirts for the 2018-2019 Rain Train. This is literally becoming a historic long-term event. I know it doesn’t technically work this way, but we literally have over half of our annual rainfall for 2019 if you count 2018 surplus and our current year-to-date totals…RIDICULOUS.

    It is almost a miracle we have not had a widespread major flood event yet on a regional level; however, I really feel like it will happen before it is all said and done with next week giving me that nervous feeling. YIKES

    • SouthernWVaWildcat says:

      Yes Terry oh so true. 2019 is already starting out just as wet if not even wetter than 2018, and 2018 was already the record year for rainfall.

      Funny the Weather Channel actually predicted February to be “Drier Than Average” for most of Kentucky I noticed before the month began.

      Forget that now. We are almost at the average rainfall for the entire month of February already, and it’s just the 8th.

      Next week may be our “reckoning” as far that major flood event is concerned, since only one dry day, Saturday, is predicted in between this rain event we are currently experiencing, and the next one, and most forecasters are already saying next week’s is even supposed to be worse than this week’s, if you can possibly believe that.

      We need a solid 7 to 10 day nothing but sunshine stretch.

      Instead, only 1 dry day is predicted, not nearly enough to help us out in this situation.

      And the ground is still soaked and saturated from the recent month’s rain and snowfall (mostly rain here), and it has been frozen at times too.

      Lord help us next week.

      • SouthernWVaWildcat says:

        months’

      • Terry says:

        We have been very lucky/blessed by the Lord so far considering we have had damage but not on a very large scale as some of the more severe, historical floods from the past.

        Harlan has had damage though, three times now within a year: The worst was last February when we had both river flood and flash flood damage to several homes. The second one was the flash flooding last June when several properties saw significant damage from both mudslides and localized stream overflow, not as widespread as last February, however. Last, we had a large mudslide yesterday but it was only near homes with impact only on the highway, thankfully!

  2. Russell says:

    Wheres the snow…back loaded winter is AWOL

  3. Bobt says:

    Look at those pretty snow models. Saw one very similar in January and we got nothing more than a dusting in my backyard. Rain seems to be keeping in warmer temps this winter. It takes a perfect setup this time a year for snow chances. Nothing on the horizon next week and that gets us into mid-February. Time is running out for multiple snow chances..

  4. Johnathan Robertson says:

    The new norm due to climate change, I fear.

  5. BubbaG says:

    A lot of adjectives and nouns this winter, but the word folks here like to see has been missing. Again, at least the word ice has been missing too πŸ™‚

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Boy today sure is a world of difference from yesterday! If we could only get the cold and the systems to collide we might have a chance to see snow. But it looks doubtful that will happen this winter. Oh well, if we can’t get snow, then bring on spring. But remember, we have had thunder in February so it will frost in May. Count on it! πŸ˜‰ Have a great Friday.

  7. Sarah says:

    I mean it’s the beauty of living in Kentucky…lots and lots of rain in February

  8. Jimbo says:

    Still wondering where the folks are who berated those of us who declared Winter dead 2 months ago. Does anybody put in any faith in that last snow map???

    • Bryan says:

      I put zero faith in these models as far as snowfall forecasts. They have been pure junk this year.

      • Bobt says:

        I pretty much saw a similar map in January and saw a dusting. Models have been junk from more than 24 hours out all year. Highly doubtful a long range snow map will get it right. The GFS has been the only model even close to being right and it has been the on showing the least amount of snow. All this moisture is keeping the temps up. We get a little cold when it goes away and back to a warm-up and rain when it returns.

        • Mike S says:

          After all of these years, you should have learned by now that any model presentation about our future weather beyond a day is pure entertainment. That’s on you if you keep watching, hoping, hanging on to every run, expecting perhaps it will be different this time.
          It’s like when I was an early teenager and thought Ohio Valley Wrestling was real. Dutch Mantel, Jerry Lawler, Randy Savage, the Road Warriors, Tojo Yamamoto, they all were just putting on a show. It was entertaining though.

          • Bjenks says:

            Tojo—–wasn’t that the life.

          • Prelude says:

            You forgot about Bill Dundee and the Moondogs, Jeff Jarrett etc etc etc…. Was it called Ohio Valley Wrestling or the USWA?

            • Debbie says:

              Lawler, Dundee and Jerry Jarrett (Jeff was his son in the WWE in the 90’s), etc were in the NWA during the 70’s. I recall in the late 70’s, they brought wrestling to Bardstown one Saturday night. Lawler and Dundee were “a-feudin’ (lol!). I didn’t go, but on Sun. afternoon, I was in our “Big K” store in line, and who should be in front of me but Jerry & Bill, laughing and joking around. Lawler was buying tube socks and Dundee was buying deoderant and razor blades! Wrestling was just never the same for me…..

              • Prelude says:

                I do believe Jeff Jarrett wrested in the USWA for a spell he team up with Bill Dundee. I watched them both compete as a tag team at the Louisville Gardens back in the early 90’s.

                • Prelude says:

                  Bill Dundee has a son named Jamie Dundee his tag team partner was Wolfie D they were a tag team named PG-13 they were quite good and entertaining. They were one of the last before USWA shut down and the Louisville Gardens closed permanently

        • Bjenks says:

          The moisture does not keep temps up. Warm air does that.

          • Bobt says:

            I meant with all this moisture one could expect the warmer weather. No way we could have this much precipitation move in during the winter time without the warmer air in place.

            • Bjenks says:

              Agreed!
              90% of Kentucky’s precipitation is derived from the Gulf and in our region of the country the cold just never seems to hold in place. Hence Fencetucky!!!!

    • Jimbo says:

      By the way it’s great to have faith in a lot of things. Just not Winter and snow in our area.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      If only snow defines winter for you, then you are mistaken.

      • Schroeder says:

        Jeff Hamlin : you can bash me all you want but don’t bash Jimbo or anyone else on this blog. It makes me very very angry.

        • Ralph says:

          You’re an idiot…

          • Troy says:

            Do you never have any mature discussion to add (relating to weather) other than the usual Schroeder bashing? No? Then go play with the Red Ryder bb gun you got for Christmas lil Ralphie….Nobody here thinks your snide remarks are cute.

            • Barry says:

              β€œThis”

              • TennMark says:

                I second this “this” wholeheartedly. I’ve never seen this Ralph troll do any positive weather posts (more frequent posters than me can correct me if I’m wrong).

                It’s as if “Ralph” has a wee bit too much time on his hands.

                Even legit criticisms can be more directed at the poster’s ideas rather than the poster himself/herself. While I and others have criticized some of Schroeder’s posts (even Chris Bailey has put his foot down a time or two against Schroeder), Schroeder had also posted many good posts about meteorology.

        • Jimbo says:

          Thanks Schroeder for the support and for the kind words the other day wishing Terry to get some snow. I think the best way to handle people like this is to ignore them. And by the way, I find your posts to be very informative.

          • Debbie says:

            As do I, Jimbo, far as Schroeder is concerned. We are all here, some of us a lot longer than others, and we all have opinions that don’t always correlate with what CB says, and in real life, that’s a good thing. That’s how it’s supposed to be. Imagine if we were all the same?! (In my mind, such as it is, it’s horrid….)

            I am probably THE biggest snow lover even here(OK…perhaps not…lol!), and I get just as upset, if not more, than many of you, when we don’t get snow here in Bardstown. And yeah…I know we’ve had our share compared to others recently-well, in recent years, I mean-mainly if we get underneath a deformation band that sets up on top of us like last Spring a couple times( 7-10″ gone by Noon…),but it’s like, I see others posting about this HUGE ’93 storm??? The only snow we had in ’93 that I recall is about an inch or so on Halloween that year?! Christmas week ’04 we had an ice storm, compared to almost a foot of snow starting about 12 miles up the road north of us! I not only wish for snow HERE,but I know the feeling of wanting it and can’t get it, too. It sucks, but there’s nothing we can do about the weather. It does what it does!

            And as far as “ignoring” people that treat others crappy. That’s true. Last week, I commented about how it seems that years ago, without the technology we have NOW, that forecasts were a lot more accurate just a couple of days out. I was “corrected”(they know who they are!)in that models we have now are MORE accurate, blah-blah….Well, if that’s what someone wants to think, and believe they are right, then so be it. They have that right. RIGHT???! πŸ˜‰

            • Jimbo says:

              Agreed. I have been a snow lover and arm chair met since 1977. I actually thought about it as a career but I knew I didn’t have the math skills needed for it.

              • TennMark says:

                The March 1993 blizzard remains THE winter event of my life. I was about nine, living in Morristown TN and remember it like yesterday. But since then I have evolved more into a warm weather person so I could take mostly year round warmth. I still like tracking snowstorms, though. Spring severe storms fascinate me more than snow.

                My wife absolutely loves snowstorms πŸ˜‰ .

                • Terry says:

                  I love it ALL!

                  I hope to see another 93 event someday again:)

                  • Debbie says:

                    Was the ’93 event strictly an E. Ky thing? I don’t recall it, and I’m “old”…LOL! I’ve seen a lot about that one over the years here, but I still don’t remember?!

                • Jackson says:

                  I hope I get to experience another snowstorm like the March 1993 snowstorm atleast one more time. I live on about 600 acres in between Pikeville and Williamson WV and the lowest elevation of my property was around 28 inches and the higher elevations had 3 feet and drifts much deeper. I’m afraid my kids may not ever experience that type of snowstorm here in Kentucky.

      • Jimbo says:

        Trying to provoke a response again? Not worth it.

      • Andy Rose says:

        Not if its for them they aren’t mistaken

  9. Lucy says:

    Just need cold with the moisture.

  10. toney says:

    where gas the BIG winter gone to?

  11. Mike S says:

    1.70″ since Monday at my house in Valley Station (southwest of Louisville). Not too bad here for a change. Sorry to hear about others.

    • Terry says:

      15.99 in for my meteorological winter-to-date.
      2.98 in for this storm total (mostly Wednesday night)
      8.99 in for my 2019 annual-to-date.

      I feel like our confidence is growing for a possible double digit February monthly for many of us. Also, my confidence is VERY HIGH I top 20 inches for my meteorological winter. WOW!!!

      • Jimbo says:

        Wow, you have over two times as rain as me for the year to date. I only have 4.14 inches. Which is equal to my snowfall to date. You could very well be destined for another record .

      • TennMark says:

        Nashville went from 78 degrees to 26 this morning!

        My cheap rain gauge measured just under four inches rain (mainly through Thursday am). Our neighborhood is relatively elevated, but a neighbor a few blocks down had part of her front yard turn into a lake including part of her front sidewalk. Things could be worse as fortunately the water does not reach her house, but any fix she does still probably won’t be cheap.

  12. Bjenks says:

    Backloaded winter looks to turn into a front loaded winter……

    Front of spring will be cold and snowy!!!!

    • Terry says:

      Yeah, this I agree with if the oscillation trends continue! I feel like March ends up being our snowiest month, even if just quick hitting and flash melt events.

      • Bjenks says:

        But if you look at the trends we will have the continued ups and downs with heavy rain and cold in between. Not even giving backside flurries to our current pattern.

        I’ll take the front loaded spring over that any day,

        • BubbaG says:

          I place bets on cold rain being the main player- only because that has been the result every time for Kentucky this winter (sane the border areas). Too many big chances have been east, west, north and even south of us. Different type systems with the same result.

      • BubbaG says:

        LOL! We could get 2″ and be the snowiest month πŸ™‚ πŸ˜‰ That is unless we count the “regional” storms πŸ˜‰

        • Bobt says:

          Really not even been that many “big misses” for the most part. Just been mostly “supposed” to get a couple of inches and it turn into nothing or a dusting. At least its not like the past years when we were always getting slammed a week out.

          My only gripe is that those misses of only a few inches have been within a timeframe that the models can usually get right. Can’t remember a recent winter where just hours before the models were still missing it.

          • c-BIV says:

            Yes, this is the worst I’ve ever seen weather models do for an entire winter.
            This has been a gloomy, depressing, wet winter with a couple snows. That’s it.

  13. SpaceGhost says:

    Flurries in Raceland! The back-load has just taken out the snowdrought like the Kool-aid man!

  14. toney says:

    i kind of get the feeling that chris is kind of upset with how this winter has turned out so far………he has always use the word POTENTIAL about big weather events such as accumalating snows…….he never said not one time in any of his forecast that it would happen like that and please keep in mind that the model runs that he shows is not actual forecast from him but only what 1 model run is showing for that forecast period………oh by the way i am an arm chair met…….lol

    • Bobt says:

      What’s amazing about winter 2018-2019 is that even the models have not gave any real hope for a snow just over a few inches. Not any real eye candy out there even a week out. Just a bunch of misses of small events even hours before the storm. This winter up to this point would be called the winter of “no hope”. Can’t even get the models to ever match up even when now casting. Maybe a repeat of ’93 happens maybe not. Either way spring is closer today than it was yesterday.

  15. can someone tell me why we’re having so much rain?

    • Debbie says:

      It’s the “Ohio Valley”. Simply put. I know no other way to tell you? I’m an “ol’ timer” here (and on the inception of the blog…)(probably…), and I’ve seen and remember a lot of weather events since the 60’s & 70’s. It’s crazy how it goes here. I can only speak of where I’m at (Bardstown). Most recent big disappointment (well, not really, but….?) is Christmas week, Dec. ’04. Expecting a major snowstorm, and we had a pure out-right ICE STORM, starting in the late afternoon Wed.(Dec. 22nd.), and 12 miles (if THAT?) up the road towards Louisville, they got like a FOOT of snow???! Last Spring, another one: A “chance” of “flurries”-we get underneath this band of snow and got like 9″ that morning-melted by about 1pm, but still….??!

      Mother Nature is gonna do what she’s gonna do. There are no wx models or weatherpersons out there than can predict or change what she does.

  16. Terry says:

    To Debbie: March Super Storm of 93

    I had to write you down here as that thread up above got too small to reply to you…lol

    The March Super Storm really impacted about I-75 on east in KY, though even Central and Western had some lower end snow and gusty winds. This is really the epic storm for its size and strength where it dropped over a foot of snow from south Alabama all the way to Maine, but the winds also set many city and some state records. Over a dozen states had hurricane force wind gusts and at least sustained tropical storm force gust. March 12-15th was the time frame but 13th and 14th was peak of storm. EPIC!!!

    LOOK BELOW:
    https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Superstorm93

    • Troy says:

      It truly was epic. The snow impact was felt as far south as downtown Atlanta all the way into Canada and as far west as Missouri. The initial onset of the storm was so quick, people were trapped in their cars on I-75 just south of Chattanooga and were air lifted to local motels and shelters. 60″ of snow fell on Mt LeConte, TN and nearly 2 feet in the Knoxville/Morristown, TN area. Ill never forget it

      • Terry says:

        I was only 10; however, I have followed weather since in my diapers and was the kid driving my parents nutty during the storm…lol…old enough to not only remember it well but also the mini Cantore outside living it up, when my parents allowed!

        They finally placed Harlan at 28 inches but it was so darn hard to accurately measure due to the extreme drifts. They had Black mt at near 50 inches!

  17. TennMark says:

    Per Debbie’s earlier question, the Blizzard of 1993 actually crippled areas from Cuba to Quebec.

    Within our immediate area, it was mainly the eastern parts of Kentucky and Tennessee that were snarled by heavy snow and blizzard conditions. Nashville and Louisville had strong winds and cold, but not much snow. But Chattanooga, Knoxville, Morristown TN (where I lived at the time), Hazard KY, Pikeville KY, etc had absolutely epic dumps of snow under blizzard criteria.

    Even areas of north Georgia as well as central Alabama (including Birmingham) had a foot or more of snow. Incredibly, cities like Mobile, Ta-l-l-a-h-a-s-s-e-e, Pensacola…..while not getting much snow….had their first true blizzards in recorded history as the winds whipped what snow there was for hours. Tampa had a brief period of snow, but Florida otherwise had destructive gale winds and tornadoes. M-a-s-s-i-v-e waves caused much destruction on Florida’s west coast, something more expected of hurricanes than non-tropical entities in this area.

    Syracuse NY got over 40 inches of the white stuff. As well equipped for snow as cities in the interior northeast are, even towns like Syracuse largely ground to a halt.

    • TennMark says:

      My post finally went through. πŸ™‚ I spent much of the time trying to find the “bad” words the automod was detecting (thus deleting the entire post). If you use a word like m*a*s*s*i*v*e, you either have to insert the likes of * or – between the letters or use an alternative word. Otherwise, the automod sees the “bad” word inside the main word and send the post to cyberspace heaven (or h-e-l-l, whatever the case may be).

  18. Jimbo says:

    The 93 storm was certainly memorable for me, I ended up with about 18 to 19 inches. I witnessed thunder and lightening during that storm. I only experienced that one other time during a snowstorm. That was the during the April 1987 storm, it snowed for almost 48 hours straight. I got 24 inches officially. But it was difficult to measure due to a lot of early melting and compacting. Amazing for April. It’s nice to reminisce about these historic storms especially since we are in a 3 year snow drought in my area that doesn’t seem to have an end in sight.

    • TennMark says:

      I was less than three years old for the April 3 1987 snow so I really don’t remember it too well.

      This event did give Birmingham and maybe Tuscaloosa AL their latest measurable snows on record (Birmingham has had at least one later trace snow). Over the years, the Weather Channel has showed old grainy video of downtown Birmingham with snow covering all the spring dogwoods and other blooms!

      Also sharing the April 3 date is the incredible Super Outbreak of tornadoes (April 3 1974).

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