Another Heavy Rain Event Ahead

Good Saturday, everyone. We have another dry day across the bluegrass state and you should soak it up because another big rain event is on the way. This begins later Sunday and rolls through the first half of the week, with another lurking by the end of the week.

As the first system moves in here on Sunday, a period of frozen precipitation is possible at the beginning. The NAM is showing a period of freezing rain and some snow to start…

Freezing Rain


The next system brings very heavy rain to the region from Sunday night through Tuesday. This looks like a general 1″-3″ of rain during this time…



Given the full creeks, streams and rivers, and a saturated ground, that would be enough to cause flooding and river flooding.

To illustrate how active this pattern is, watch the parade of systems showing up…



The pattern only allows for the cold to intrude so far into our region, as the mild air off the southeast coast fights back. That cold is going to wind this battle, but exactly when remains to be seen. The GFS Ensembles continue to grow more bullish on the cold and that shows up in the 2 week snow map…

I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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36 Responses to Another Heavy Rain Event Ahead

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Rinse and repeat of this faux winter.

  2. MarkLex says:

    Yea but things can change – for example, the first heavy rain event is relatively close so it will probably happen – but later next week? The way the models have been you know that will change by the time later next week gets here.

  3. BH says:

    If we get any big snows later on. They would probably be the wet kind that weights down pine tree limbs and breaks them.

  4. Bjenks says:

    The Groundhog Day of all winters.
    Rinse and repeat with nice snow maps to end.

    The Groundhog Day of all winters.
    Rinse and repeat with nice snow maps to end.

    The Groundhodg Day of all winters.
    Rinse and repeat with nice snow maps to end.

    On a positive note Ground Hog day did END WITH a big snowstorm,

  5. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. As others have previously said, when rain is predicted, it usually verifies. But with snow??? Well that one is anyone’s guess. We just can’t catch a break. And after mid to late February, I’m like Chris. In spring mode…. but the way our weather has been, that only means the rain gets warmer. 😉 Have a great Saturday everyone and Go Cats!

  6. Jim B says:

    Ah, the ol GFS two week snow map hahaha

  7. Bobt says:

    If a pattern flip gives us a couple extra weeks of cool weather and less rain in 2019 than what we had in 2018, let’s flip that pattern. I’m outside a lot from spring through fall and I have never seen such miserable weather than 2018. Kentucky needs a dry out whether it’s warmer or cooler to get to that point I will be happy.

  8. Melva says:

    I’ve given up following the models this year. I figure our winter here in the huntington/Ashland area is about over. The polar vortex of last week and the accompanying one inch of snow is probably about all we’ll be getting this year.

    I believe the rain models though!

    These past few warm nice days have spoiled me and I’ve now got spring fever!

  9. Farmer 43 says:

    The cold will win for a whole two days like it is now

  10. jackson says:

    What a joke of a winter…..

    • Terry says:

      YES! Well for the season-to-date anyways! Far SE KY is the worst as we were expected to see the most above normal accumulation on the season but are currently the furthest below average on even an annual basis.

      Harlan has had 2 Winter Storm Watches, 2 Winter Storm Warnings and nearly 10 Winter Weather Advisories since November with a grand seasonal total of 3 inches of snow!!!!!!!!!

      • Mike says:

        3 inches – not bad. Richmond has had about the same – just without the excitement (anticipation?) of all the watches and warnings…

      • Troy says:

        We’ve still only barely topped last years 3/4 inch total in Middlesboro with just over an inch for the season total. Sadly, I don’t believe we have a chance to even get to two inches for this season.

      • Debbie says:

        Heck, y’all are doing good on the snow front. I wouldn’t even say Bardstown has hit the 2″ mark. Maybe SOME people in the county, but not right here in the middle of town in my backyard. I think I have the dreaded “dome” right over top of my place.

        • Bobt says:

          You couldn’t throw all my snow in Knox Co. in a bucket and get 3 inches of snow. That might be close to tops in the state this year.

          • Terry says:

            Most of mine was that one lake effect event in late November. I hit a snow squall and received almost 2 inches. About 1 inch total since fir December/January/February combined:(

        • Terry says:

          I thought your area was about 4 to 6 inch range on the season? Well Louiville shows over 6 on the season. I think only the three most northern KY counties are over 10 on the season but it seems your area would be more than SE KY?

          • Terry says:

            To Debbie.

            • Debbie says:

              Like I said, I think it varies. For instance, last March when we got underneath a heavy banding one morning, we had about 8-9″…another little banding gave us about 6″ a couple days (or weeks??!) later, but my cousin that lives about 1/4 mile from me got about 2-3″, if that from both deals. Everyone from Louisville can talk about the foot they got Christmas ’04, but that ended about 9 miles up the road. We got a nasty ice storm with just a little bit of snow on top. That was a hard disappointment!

  11. TennMark says:

    It’s been exactly 25 years since the devastating 1994 ice storm wrecked havoc on much of southern Kentucky and central/western Tennessee among other states. Cities like Bowling Green, Nashville (the worst ice storm since the infamous 1951 event) and Memphis suffered much destruction to trees and powerline infrastructure. Some rural areas of Mississippi were without power for nearly a month.

    My wife spent part of her childhood in Bowling Green. In late January 1994, Bowling Green endured the same snow event that buried Louisville with 15 inches snow then -22 temps (Bowling Green dropped to -11). But at least the electricity stayed on. Only a few weeks later came the ice storm. My (future) wife and her family were without power for sometime and huddled around the fireplace for warmth. There were so many downed tree limbs in the neighborhood that it took weeks for all of it to be hauled off.

    As much as my better half still loves winter to this day, ice storms are a big exception to this rule 😉 .

  12. TennMark says:

    Skywarn storm spotter courses are continuing to be scheduled by area NWS offices as we inch closer to the peak severe weather/tornado months (March, April, May). This includes both online and more traditional clas-ses.

    NWS Paducah

    NWS Nashville

  13. Formerly from KY says:

    If it keeps raining in Kentucky you guys down there will be able to buy ocean front property.

  14. Russell says:

    As I’ve said RIP winter…time to look ahead to spring which hopefully wont be too chilly…

  15. Teach says:

    I cannot remember the last time the ensembles were correct.

  16. Dr Wx says:

    Very high Barometric pressure reading, 30.87 at Louisville. The state record is 30.98.

  17. Prelude says:

    I’m sure snow lovers gotta love the SE Ridge. It’s kryptonite for snow in the Ohio Valley.

  18. Andy Rose says:

    The trees are budding to btw

    • Bobt says:

      Meteorogical winter is over in a little more than two weeks . Winter is on its way out and I’m glad. Warmer days ahead. Can’t wait for the Bradford pears to start blooming.

  19. Jimbo says:

    I am still wondering where all the folks who were so agitated with those of us who called Winter over a month and half ago are? I haven’t read a post yet from anyone who believes that two week snow map. I think Chris dropped a hint that he doesn’t buy it either by mentioning the warm southeast ridge. I have at least 2 days next week predicted to be over 60. One more thing instead of replacing the old GFS. They need to throw that 2 week composite snow model on the trash heap instead of the old GFS.

  20. Cold-Rain says:

    Seen the verification scores for 7,14, and 30 days and the ensembles were worst than the FV3 if i’m not mistaken..Wish i could find that tweet but can’t find it to post..

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