Wintry Mix Before Another Flood Threat

Good afternoon, everyone. We have a high impact storm system moving our way over the next three days. This will bring a wintry mix, creating a few hours of travel issues on Sunday, Then, the flood threat kicks back in from Sunday night through Tuesday as heavy rain returns.

A Winter Weather Advisory (in blue) is out for parts of the region for Sunday, but this should include more counties. Anytime freezing rain is possible, a glaze is all it takes to cause big issues…

You can see this mix of rain, freezing rain and snow working in early Sunday with rain taking over in the afternoon…

The Hi Res NAM freezing rain forecast

NAM freezing rain forecast

GFS freezing rain forecast

Areas of northern Kentucky have the best chance at seeing a small accumulation of snow…

The main threat comes from flooding. A general 1″-3″ of rain will fall from Sunday through Tuesday, with some 4″ amounts possible. Flood Watches are already going up…

Given the fact we are waterlogged and our creeks, streams and rivers are already full, it won’t take much rain to cause flooding issues. Unfortunately, we have a lot of rain on the way. Check out some of the model forecasts through Tuesday…

Euro

NAM

New GFS

GFS

Canadian

If you have interests along waterways, especially rivers, please be mindful that flooding will likely develop over the next few days.

I’m at the Kentucky Sport, Boat and Recreation show at Rupp Arena this evening, so I won’t be able to update again. Come on down and say hi.

Enjoy the evening and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

16 Responses to Wintry Mix Before Another Flood Threat

  1. Terry says:

    Pretty amazing really….this is only the 5 models showing rainfall totals through Tuesday and doesn’t consider the storms later in the week!

    I predict a double digit rainfall monthly total for February for many of us regionally!

    Who thinks my prediction will be wrong?…lol

    • feederband says:

      At this rate, you win the prize Terry. I’m building a large wooden……ummmmm…..ark. Yeah, an ark.
      This pattern has to break soon. I’ve never seen this high precip pattern last this long in Kentucky. Seen cool summers and warmer than normal winters but not rain, rain, rain, and guess what? Rain.

      • Debbie says:

        This is the rainiest winter I’ve seen in 56 yrs. My kids ask when they can go outside and I tell ’em as soon as we buy the pontoon! 😀

        • Terry says:

          LOL. I am not on a steep hill but just high enough away from the Cumberland River and enough of an incline that I dont have issues with much standing water in my yard. No flood threat for my home, THANK GOODNESS. It definitely is, and has been for a long time, super muddy and sloshy though!

      • Terry says:

        I wish I could win the prize and predict us either a dry stretch with 70 to 80 (no humidity and sunny) for at least a week+ or a region wide smack down snow without widespread power/tree issues:)

    • Jimbo says:

      I could see that easily happening especially for areas of Southern Ohio and Eastern Kentucky. I have picked a lot of rain too but not nowhere near what those areas have. Mine has been from a whole bunch of lighter events adding up. Usually that wedge I refer to that ruins snow during the Winter can also drastically reduce rainfall amounts. Because that southeast wind blowing down the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains warms up and dries out thus reducing precip amounts. I expect with all these upcoming systems coming from the West this will probably keep occurring.

      • Terry says:

        That wedge affects Harlan a lot too, but lately, the lows have been more on top of my area instead of west not allowing the SE wind but more of a SW wind which enhances the rainfall here some. Right now, this system does look lower in totals due more of a west track unless it ends up like the recent storm and corrects more SE. Plus, a stalled out boundary can limit the SE drying winds some. Right now, Jackson has my region in the least rainfall through Tuesday in KY….have to wait and see if any trend changes come.

        • Jimbo says:

          I agree. We get the most heavy rain here when there is a stalled front or when a strong storm pulls a warm front up across my area. Usually the warm front produces a lot more rain than the trailing cold front. Usually the the cold front rain band gets more narrower as it gets closer to me.

  2. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Who wants to bet the flood watch gets expanded to include the rest of Eastern Kentucky by Monday?
    Not sure why they don’t just go ahead and include them all in the first place rather than issuing it piecemeal.

    • Terry says:

      Yeah….Typical. As of right now though, most models have us in the less than or equal to 2 inch range which is probably why NWS is waiting a while. But since we have been wetter down here than the rest of the state since New Year’s, our flash flood guidance will be even lower than areas expected to have the higher totals needing less rain here to cause problems. For this reason, I think we should have a watch in my opinion!

  3. Aaron says:

    Second the verse, same as the first!

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Wonder if you will help them sell some big boats with this forecast? If so, make them pay you commission! . In the meantime, dragging the waders back out. Have a good evening all.

  5. Allen says:

    Unfortunately i don’t see very much snow over the rest of what’s left of winter, But i do see more RAIN. The chances of an all snow system are slim to none and slim done left…. It will get cold but not the brutal we had, I think most of that brutal stays north.. With that said nighty night.

  6. Todd says:

    RAIN such pain, but we are do a drought when will this come about, know one knows how long this goes, but the rain is on and on it goes !

  7. Bobt says:

    Rain was the theme of 2018 and it continues to be the theme of 2019. I honestly wouldnt mind seeing a little drought this summer. We are due a dry stretch of weather. It’s not normal for yards to not have a hint of brown in July and August, but last year that never happened. Wouldn’t mind having a week or two where hanging by the swimming pool would be the only thing that you could do.

  8. Jimmie says:

    Looks like we’re well on our way to another record-breaking year for rainfall.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *