Tracking A Wintry Mix Before Flooding

Good Sunday, everyone. A wintry mix is kicking off another super-active setup across our part of the world. It’s one that is likely to cause flooding issues to develop over the next few days. After that, there is an increasing signal of winter weather showing back up.

Let’s start with what’s going on today because it can cause issues. A mix of freezing rain, rain and snow develops this morning and slowly changes over to plain rain this afternoon from south to north. With a frozen ground, watch for a glaze of ice that can cause travel issues in many areas. Please use caution if you’re going to be traveling. Here’s regional radar to help you out…

I will get to the rest of your tracking tools in a bit.

Rounds of heavy rain kick this afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. Flood Watches are out for many areas during this time…

The entire state is at risk of seeing flooding during this time. I’m becoming more concerned for the potential for fairly widespread flooding problems developing later Monday into Tuesday. I’m upping the rainfall possibilities during this time…

Our creeks, streams and rivers are already running very high, so it’s not going to take much water to cause flooding issues to develop. If you have interests along our rivers, just know there is an increased threat for flooding in the days ahead.

Much colder air comes in behind this system late Tuesday into Tuesday night, leading to the possibility of some wraparound snows…

The next system arrives by the end of the week with another round of heavy rain then the chance for some snow. That unleashes the cold behind it…

The GFS Ensembles 2 week snow forecast continues to increase with each run…

I will have updates later today, so check beck. As promised, here are your tracking tools to start the day…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

-75/I-64 Southern Split Lexington


Georgetown


I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

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Covington

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Louisville

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E-town

No image available.

Bowling Green

Paducah

Have a good one and take care.


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40 Responses to Tracking A Wintry Mix Before Flooding

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    As much as most of us long for dry stretches, at some point a 2012 summer could hit again. Not fun.

    • Terry says:

      No it wasn’t fun! Never seen so many 90s and 100s in my lifetime yet. Plus it was hot with 90s into early October.

      • MarkLex says:

        Not only that – but I can’t remember which year, maybe 2 years or 3 years ago……the entire spring and summer, except for a tropical remnant system, was boring weather. We were talking about it on the blog it was endless days of nice boring weather – like living in Cali.

        • Terry says:

          Yeah, I remember talking about it with you. I think it was fall 2016 as Gatlinburg burnt down right before the pattern finally changed.

          • Bobt says:

            I would take a nice dry stretch of weather. Rain four or five days a week stinks. Its proven that people are healthier and happier in sunny climates. Summer is supposed to be hot not cool, clouds and rain all the time.

    • Jim B says:

      True Hamlin, but 2012 summer was not preceded by what we have had over the last year, this trend will continue

  2. Chris g in clay county says:

    What kinda weather did we have in 2012 here? I moved to houston early may 2012, csme back home first of December 2012. In remember 2012 being really hot down there.

  3. Terry says:

    Sounds crazy, but I still think March is going to be our snowiest month this year. You all may disagree with my bold prediction, but if you think about, we only need a widespread 1-3 inch snow event in March and most of us south of the greater Cincinnati KY counties will easily have the snowiest month in March, including WV and TN blog followers.
    ..lol!

    Don’t count my bold prediction out since it really want take much snow to come true!

    • Cold-Rain says:

      The SOI is supposed to drop pretty big to negative..Along with the MJO moving to phase 8/1..Probably why the ensembles are back to showing snow..If modeling is right i would say somewhere around the 20th we could see something pop up..Seen this before so ain’t holding my breath..My feeling is the SOI being positive about all winter and the MJO being stuck in bad phases ruined the winter..This upcoming period if modeling is correct should be a good example..

      • Terry says:

        NAO is still holding out though and AO, PNA are trending slightly back but still both in wrong states. I think it will take at least 2 weeks +, if it happens at all to finally get into a snow pattern. MJO does look good by the 20th though!

        • Cold-Rain says:

          Agree NAO is going to be key..If it don’t develop then probably see more cutters along with with the SE ridge..If not to strong of a ridge maybe western parts can see something..

  4. Russell says:

    This time I will agree with Jeff….its very wet now but I dont ever wish for a drought….I remember the summer of 83 when it was so dry the ground was cracking….dont need that this as summer.

    • Bobt says:

      Gardens did very poor last year due to all the rain. I never want to see a year like 2018 again . Way too much rain and 2019 is starting out the same way. Hopefully this pattern flips. I miss the sunshine and warm temps like summer is supposed to bring. Almost daily rain and cloud cover stinks.

      • feederband says:

        I had a bumper crop of hot peppers last year. The warm and humid spring that lasted into summer was the best environment for growing exotic varieties.

        • Mike S says:

          same here, but my habaneros weren’t nearly as hot as the ones the year before, probably from the wet soil. However, did have a plant come up from the ground during the middle part of summer, I guess from the previous year’s seeds. And that one was the way I like it, hot.

          • Debbie says:

            Our garden was fantastic last year! Despite one area under the bigger tomato plants that held water like a small pond, I had pretty nice fruit off them, whereas in ’17, you couldn’t pick a bigger ‘mater without your fingers sinking into the big bore holes in the bottoms. Cherry ones didn’t do good at all, probably because I switched planting spots, but the grape ones were huge, cucumbers went way into the fall, green & red peppers did, too, and we had cayenne and ghost peppers out our ears until well after first frost. Even green beans and okra did well, and I didn’t have much luck with those at all the first couple times I planted them. My neighbor usually has a pretty nice garden, but his started looking rough early on and he just let it go to weeds, said he wasn’t going to waste time on it. Hoping this year will be just as good for ours if not better!

            • Bobt says:

              Guess it all depends on where you live. Places with poor drainage was out of luck last year. Most that I’ve talked to had poor results due to too much rain.

  5. Bobt says:

    The GFS snow map for Florida matches up pretty well with what snow I’ve had in my backyard this year.

  6. Jimbo says:

    Droughts are nasty. The worst years I remember were 1988 and 2007. The one in 88 broke in early Sept. But the 2007 rolled thru the third week of Oct. And 2012 was just hot here but there was rain at times that is when we got the huge derecho that knocked power out to half of WV. A lot of folks I knew we were out of electric for two weeks in 90 and 100 degree weather. That was the one weather event other than snowstorms that really stand out in my mind. Oh, there’s that darn GFS 2 week snowfall map that’s been haunting this blog for two and a half months. I guess we’ll be seeing that up until April. Then it will just disappear, mercifully.

  7. Prelude says:

    2012 was a brutal summer I remember temperatures hitting near triple digits by the noon hour. My Harley hated it most Harley’s are air cooled engines. Cty traffic in 100+ degree heat on Harley is a very bad combination. However that is why I also own a crotch rocket and a Japanese muscle bike just for that reason when it gets to hot for the Harley I have two others motorcycles that are liquid cool engines with radiators. I’m a motorcycle enthusiast I love the warm weather but the summer of 2012 even humbled me to where I drove my A/C vehicles more than I did my motorcycles.

  8. BubbaG says:

    First, CB really hates drought talk, so an easy trigger.

    Second, I thought we had hit the low bar for a winter and looks like that might be wrong and this could be the new bar. If this plays out as wimpy as it has, we might also end up with a milder summer as well. Given I have been all wrong so far, maybe the opposite will happen.

    • Prelude says:

      It’s all about location when describing “wimpy winter” looking at Louisville for instance 8.0 inches of snow officially has been recorded. Covington Ky 17.0 inches. Lexington 6.5 inches. Credit to John Belski for posting these numbers.

  9. Bob Ratliff says:

    Moving to AZ where the weather is consistent. Hot and More Hot. 😉

  10. Terry says:

    Data is increasing the rain in SE KY over 2 inches on most models. I think NWS needs to go ahead and expand the flood watch now!

  11. Farmer 43 says:

    The wettest year on record prior to 2018 was 2011 and yes2012 drought followed by far and I do mean by far the 2012 drought has been my most devastating year as a farmer last year yes we had to much rain it hurt my crops but I’ll take rain any day over none in 2012 I didn’t wanna leave the house to watch my crops burning up it’s always easier to farm around the rain than to farm without it on one other note we had a nice little glaze here this morning here in Breckinridge co but it’s34 here now

  12. Jeremy says:

    Every update includes some type of comment hinting at winter weather showing up soon, but it never happens. I like snow, but it isn’t happening and last Thursday has me ready for spring anyway.

  13. Jimbo says:

    I just checked the local radar in my area. It shows The Wedge working. Which in this case is good it means it isn’t raining.

    • Terry says:

      No Wedge in Harlan. Decent rain down here but just started about an hour ago so not a lot yet. These boundary setups usually allow for calm winds which is preventing the SE wind down here. Need a flood watch but not getting one it seems!

      • Jimbo says:

        I still haven’t seen a flake or drop, everything keeps disappearing on radar. I think the wedge might be a bit stronger in my area than in yours. Also I just noticed the first daffodils poking through the ground this morning and a neighbor heard the peepers/frogs.

        • Terry says:

          I think we are heading towards trouble down here. The axis of the heavy rain is again setting up down in far southern and SE KY here and more matches the Old GFS than EURO or new GFS. I wish they would just issue the watch instead of waiting. Oh well, I have no say so. LOL

  14. Bryan says:

    This weather is great-if you like the climate of the Pacific Northwest.

    Also, at this point, why even post the fantasy land snowfall from the junk models? At one point, before the “polar vortex,” various models were showing 1-2′ of snow for eastern Kentucky. This never came close to verifying. This winter has been a disaster for snow lovers, unless you live in far northern KY. I will agree with Hamlin, it’s probably better than a prolonged dry spell.

  15. Mike S says:

    …I will never understand this…if the NWS does not put out an advisory for snow, sleet, freezing rain, and there are accidents due to weather conditions, it’s their fault? But, if NWS does put out an advisory and there are still accidents, whose fault is it? Plain and simple, drivers, when the weather where you are has deteriorated, slow down…it’s called common sense. Otherwise, stay off the road.

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