Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. One more round of moderate to heavy rain works across the state this afternoon, then we get a small break in the action. Once that small break is over, the pattern turns very active once again, but with a twist. The overall setup continues to trend colder, leading to more winter weather threats.

This afternoon’s heavy rain may cause a few issues as it rolls eastward. Winds will gust up as temps crash, leading to a few snow showers or flurries this evening through early Wednesday. Those gusts may top 40mph at time through this evening.

The next system arrives Thursday night in the form of a cold front. That front will then usher in colder air, allowing two systems right behind it to take more of a southern track. The GFS has the first arriving Friday night into Saturday, with the second moving in Sunday and Monday…

The new version of the GFS is similar…

Both bring a swath of accumulating snow across the state, but the exact track of those two systems will, as always, be the determining factor in where that sets up.

Another, potentially bigger, system shows up right behind those for early next week…

GFS

New GFS

You can see this farther south track on the snow map from the GFS through next week…

The average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles is farther south…

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 and with another KWC update later this evening. Until then, let’s track the final rounds of rain and some snow…

Make it a good one and take care.


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24 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris! Ahh…a brief respite form the rain coming…that’s a great thing. it is sooo soupy you cant even take the dog out without wearing waders! And I see the s word in the forecast. Well, I say just bring it! At least its better than rain. Stay safe and dry this afternoon everyone. And GO CATS!!!

  2. Anything but rain at this point. Our yard is so muddy I have banned my dog from it. I don’t like snow but at this point it would beat more rain. Thanks for you hard work, Chris.

    • Debbie says:

      Me, too. We don’t live where it floods here in Bardstown, but our backyard is absolutely NOTHING but one big MUD PIT!!! I mean, it tends to hold water in low places out where our garden is, but this morning when I got up & took doggies out, it looked like several small ponds ALL OVER! I have one dog, a Mountain Cur(squirrel dog, but I made her an inside mutt…we don’t hunt)and a little weiner/jack russell that doesn’t mind if Mama has to give him a “shower” everytime he comes back inside. I don’t like to mop…I never did…but we’ve got a white,textured floor in our kitchen…..GRRRRRR!!!!! šŸ™ I don’t mind snow…the deeper the better, but at least when it snows, there’s no mud….until it melts…arrrrgggghhhh!!!

  3. Terry says:

    The frontal progression seems to be slowing a little in far SE KY. Harlan is getting dumped on and has been pretty hard since 10AM. I am at work on a small break, so I am not for sure how much I have received at my house since 7 AM. I bet we get a Flash Flood Warning a little later down here!

  4. Andy Rose says:

    Rain rain then more rain. Gotta love it Swamptucky

  5. BubbaG says:

    Trend buster, or meh! Who wants to place odds the main track of snow is I64 on north? Seems money.

    • Terry says:

      Seems loss of money if most bet for snow in southern KY…lol. I hope for a brief wet snow this weekend/next week hit but those dang temps and extremely wet ground look very much against us. I bet Lexington on north gets some….the usual!

    • Jim B says:

      Trend will continue…. no worries. But, if your a snow lover, you can at least pretend with the GFS snow models haha

    • Jimbo says:

      No, I think the snow track will be up around I70. What snow that has occurred has been up there. The 64 corridor in WV has been a dead zone all Winter. But I just see more rain out of these systems and in most cases recently the dreaded backside flurries haven’t even materialized. Plus none of locals in the tri-state even mention snow in their forecasts for the next week, I guess cause the highs during that time are 40 and above everyday. And I dont want to even start on that 2 week snow map.

  6. Lotsasnow says:

    Where is the Canadian model ???

  7. Rodger Dodger says:

    Are we FINALLY getting somewhere with snow?! Let’s hope! Rodger in Dodger

    • Andy Rose says:

      Location location location

      • Terry says:

        Not trying to be jealous as no where in KY has done well by winter prediction but it stinks how every snow that does happen is I-64 north:(….very tired of it and to the point that if I cant have snow, I WANT NO ONE TO HAVE IT!!!!

  8. Debbie says:

    Heads up to friends east of me!!!
    Just had very high wind gusts and torrential rains go through Bardstown. It lasted maybe 5-10 minutes at best, moving at a good clip, but it sounded like it was tearing the roof off the house. I looked out and couldn’t even see the house across the street, the rain/wind was so hard. (Too dang bad it isn’t SNOW!!!! šŸ™‚ )

  9. Lotsasnow says:

    I believe that kentucky will be right in the nasty mix/ice all this weekend and next week heavy snow north of the river

    • Troy says:

      Yep…northern half of the state freezing ice/mix,
      southern half with rain and backside flurries…
      rinse and repeat weekly until April.
      Easy prediction as the trend will always win

      • Terry says:

        Just had a dangerous drive from Harlan to Middlesboro with 119 getting bad. I am little surprised that there is not even a flood advisory as most of the ditches are overflowed!

  10. Cold-Rain says:

    At this point I’m tired of hearing about snow and watching/hearing/touching/feeling the rain..Were just stuck in a wet rainy pattern that looks to keep going..It’s like some cruel person has aimed a gigantic water hose at KY shouting naughty words at us.

  11. Bobt says:

    The NWS forecast discussion sounds like they are tired of the rain too. Made a reference of the rain moving out on Sunday and a dry Monday being the longest dry stretch in the foreseeable future before rain quickly moves back in again next Tuesday. Most of their snow potential had references to the northern half of the viewing area which is typical. I would take no snow any day if this rain would end.

    Today probably pushed my area over the historical February precipitation average and we are only 12 days into the month.

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