Good afternoon, everyone. One more round of moderate to heavy rain works across the state this afternoon, then we get a small break in the action. Once that small break is over, the pattern turns very active once again, but with a twist. The overall setup continues to trend colder, leading to more winter weather threats.

This afternoon’s heavy rain may cause a few issues as it rolls eastward. Winds will gust up as temps crash, leading to a few snow showers or flurries this evening through early Wednesday. Those gusts may top 40mph at time through this evening.

The next system arrives Thursday night in the form of a cold front. That front will then usher in colder air, allowing two systems right behind it to take more of a southern track. The GFS has the first arriving Friday night into Saturday, with the second moving in Sunday and Monday…

The new version of the GFS is similar…

Both bring a swath of accumulating snow across the state, but the exact track of those two systems will, as always, be the determining factor in where that sets up.

Another, potentially bigger, system shows up right behind those for early next week…

GFS

New GFS

You can see this farther south track on the snow map from the GFS through next week…

The average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles is farther south…

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 and with another KWC update later this evening. Until then, let’s track the final rounds of rain and some snow…

Make it a good one and take care.