First Call For Friday Night Snowfall

Good afternoon and Happy Valentine’s Day. Windy and mild temps will soon give way to a blast of winter weather to start the upcoming weekend. That comes in the form of a fast-moving snow maker for much of the bluegrass state.

Watch how fast this system works through here from late Friday into Saturday morning…

Rain initially develops during the afternoon then goes over to a mix then wet snow. Some light freezing rain and sleet may even show up in the transition.

From there, a swath of wet, accumulating snow shows up from west to east across the state. Here’s the often imitated First Call For Snowfall…

That looks to be a pretty steady map going forward, but there is a little wiggle room with the 1″-4″ swath. I suspect that may be nudged a little farther south in time. Outside of that corridor, it’s a sharp drop to little or no snow.

The new GFS is in pretty good agreement with my map…

The new version of the GFS is ready to take over as the main GFS and has a similar swath, but ups the totals…

While I can’t rule that out at the moment, I’ll go ahead and take the under.

I will have a new call for snowfall on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then back here on KWC this evening. Happy Valentine’s Day and take care.

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40 Responses to First Call For Friday Night Snowfall

  1. Andrew says:

    If its 60 degrees today and the pavement temps are way above freezing, we shouldn’t have much of a problem with roads should we? Specifically driving to Lexington for the game on Saturday?


    • Schroeder says:

      This is NOT a real Storm so I am sure you will be fine but you may want to check the roads for slick spots.

    • Debbie says:

      They’re saying, at least locally, the melting will begin early Saturday due to rising temps. Supposed to be a fast and short-lived event. You should be OK.

  2. Rodger Dodger says:

    Would be the biggest snow this season in Rodger’s backyard IF it happens. Big IFffff! Rodger in Dodger

  3. Andy Rose says:

    Why would this one be any different for the south than it has been for the fauxwinter

  4. Schroeder says:

    The low pressure that’s coming from the west to east has no upper level support and will move along with the westerlies at a rapid clip and out in to the Atlantic Ocean. Usually, especially this time of year it would ” hook up” with some energy off the Eastern Seaboard and form a Nor’ Easter. Not with this weird weather pattern we have now going on two years and not showing any signs of letting up. I’m going to make a bold prediction that this ” rain train ” will continue well into Summer which IMO will follow a very very LATE SPRING.

  5. jackson says:

    Hopefully the snow line will go south just a little bit before it arrives. Here in Northeast Pike County we are right on the cutoff line and looking at a dusting most likely if anything.

  6. Cold-Rain says:

    I refuse to say the sn** word anymore..As terry mentioned earlier models are spitting out dangerous amounts of rain leading up to march..A lot of this rain is along the southern border with parts of Tenn. showing up to 10 inches..This could easily shift North..Just don’t know how the ground or streams can take much more..Will it ever end?

  7. Jimbo says:

    There appears to be a bit of a disconnect. Charleston NWS only has a 30% chance of a mix for my area Saturday with a 43 degree high. On this map my area is safely in the snow zone. I guess NWS is basing their forecast on the Winter trends so far.

    • Schroeder says:

      Jimbo sounds like they just copied Accweather’s forecast.

    • SkiWi says:

      Even when a rare, legit snowstorm is on it’s way the CHS NWS is always hesitant and the last to accept that a winter storm is approaching. I guess they are used to the letdown that comes from the Tri-State bubble. I literally watched the radar one year as Huntington and Charleston were solid green while Pt Pleasant to the north got a foot and Portsmouth to the west got a foot as well. Crazy!

  8. Schroeder says:

    I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else knows either. I am more worried about flooding along the Ohio River for those folks who have interest there. I’m sure most of the folks remember the mighty Mississippi River flood.

    • Schroeder says:

      The above reply for Cold – Rain

    • SouthernWVaWildcat says:

      I am much more concerned about the rain as well. They have nearly doubled (yes you heard me right!) the forecast totals for next week, and we just cannot handle anymore rain right now. We just can’t!

  9. Russell says:

    Nothing in WKY RIP WINTER.

  10. Bobt says:

    How much did it rain in my backyard in 2018? 178 days. That’s more than the city with the most rainy days on average which is Buffalo NY which averages 167. 2019 has started out on pace to equal that with January and February already averaging close to the numbers that came in last year. That’s pretty much having a climate stuck in raining every other day. Am I the only one sick of rain? Where is my sunshine?

  11. Schroeder says:

    I just don’t understand why those weather models are so far off ? Back in 2004 in Evansville, Indiana I remember the local meteorologist predicting the snowstorm for the twenty third of December five days out and it did come up to twenty two inches of snow on Christmas Day. In my opinion I think they ( all weather models used to forecast ) in this country should ” shut down ” and retool or find another way to forecast the weather.

    • Rodger Dodger says:

      Rodger lives close to Evansville. Seems the biggest snows through the years (5″+) have been mostly a surprise with an inch or 2 – if that – predicted 24 hours out. The big 2004 pre-Christmas snow of 20″+ was supposed to be a few inches and then was a MAJOR overachiever. The blizzard of 1978 wasn’t predicted. There’s other examples but those were the biggies. On the other hand, Rodger would be very rich if he had $10 for every time a Winter Storm Watch amounted to flurries or less! Rodger in Dodger

      • Schroeder says:

        Thanks for clearing that up Roger Dodger. I knew they didn’t predict the Blizzard of 78. But I thought the snowstorm of 2004 was a solid prediction ? That actually was the biggest snowstorm since 1960 but did not break a record in Evansville, Indiana. In 1917-18 there were record breaker blizzard and snowstorms in Evansville, Indiana.

  12. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. As usual we can’t even get in on a possibility this winter. Oh well. That is how it goes. But I guarantee you we WILL get the rain part! Have a great Friday Eve afternoon all.

  13. Lucy says:

    NWS says 1 inch or less for my area, and I am in 1-4 zone on CB map. Seems like may be more slush. Whatever the amount, will look pretty coming down.

  14. Jimbo says:

    If you are a snow lover in our area and an accumulation is predicted also hope for the high number but know and expect you’ll get the low number.

    • Josh says:

      First call for snowfall is 0-1/2 inch and that’s if it snows if it rains we’ll get 0-80 inches and I’m leaning on the upper side of that prediction

  15. Terry says:

    Poor ole Troy is not even in the “Nothing to 1 inch” range. I barely am about 5 miles north of the light blue line. (LOL)

    I know everyone is beyond tired of the “R” word but I am really concerned for this upcoming event. The data being spit out is wild, especially south of Hal Roger’s for rain totals! Scary look for flooding and maybe severe flooding at that for far southern and SE KY with a north trend likely.

    • Troy says:

      lmao!!!! Well, it’s not as if we would have gotten more then flurries if the bullseye of a blizzard were centered here!!!

  16. Schroeder says:

    I just wish we could get an accurate weather forecast like the late Great Marcia Yockey use to predict. She just naturally knew when a big snowstorm was coming. I can here her now saying ” It’s going to snow buckets. “

    • Debbie says:

      Was she that nutty crazy one on a station in Evansville? I remember seeing a lady on the weather there back in 1982 when I was with my folks going to OK…my uncle always said she was “a brick shy of a “sh**house”! lol! 🙂

  17. Bryan says:

    Southern Kentucky hosed again.
    In the words of Bob Uecker-“just a bit outside.”

  18. Troy says:

    Margie said it wouldn’t! Those of you 40 or older living in the Knoxville TV viewing area know the reference. lol

  19. Cold-Rain says:

    Man o man..The rainfall numbers are a sight to behold on the GFS..I’m afraid Southern South Eastern Ky and Tenn. will be one big sink hole after this mess..We better be hoping for a SER that goes all the way into Canada..#TeamSouthEastRidge

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