The Hits Keep Coming

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another system rolling across the state today, bringing a brief mix before rain takes over. This is the first in a series of systems on the way for the next week or so, bringing a renewed high water threat to the region.

Our Sunday starts with a touch of frozen precipitation for parts of central and eastern Kentucky. I can’t rule out a little bit of a glaze early on, so keep that in mind if travelling early. Showers quickly take over, with a rumble of thunder possible…

It’s not going to be a washout kind of a day by any means, but the rain may be steadier in the east and southeast. A healthy temp spread will show up from northwest to southeast and the colder air to the north moves in for Monday. That may mean a light snow shower or flurries.

The next system will roll in here later Tuesday and will have a lot of moisture with it. With cold air initially in place, can we get this to start out as snow or a mix? The NAM certainly thinks so as it develops a healthy snow band before the heavy rain kicks in…

The new version of the GFS has a similar idea, but to a lesser extent…

The soon to be defunct GFS has a touch of freezing rain on the leading edge…

From there, at least two more systems will follow a similar path later in the week through next weekend. This sets the stage for a lot of rain to fall from our region into the south. This could cause flooding issues to develop from Kentucky into areas of the Tennessee Valley and deep south…

I won’t be able to hook you up with an update until this evening, so be patient with a weatherdude. 🙂

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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27 Responses to The Hits Keep Coming

  1. BH says:

    The rain train is pulling into town. All aboard for a wet ride.

  2. Terry says:

    With several inches of rain forecasted, Chris may end up doing a THREAT and eventually an ALERT…lol!

    You know your in trouble when all the major models are showing your area SE KY getting enough inches in rain that it would be impressive even as a snow map. NOT GOOD!!!

  3. Schroeder says:

    Terry I hope and pray that this RAIN TRAIN ends soon. This flooding potential is a GREAT concern for those that live near any river or creek and I feel that the NWS should issue an EXTREME FLOOD WARNING in all areas that have the potential for a life threatening event so those folks may prepare for the JUST IN CASE.

    • Terry says:

      I just exceeded 6 inches for February and absolutely pouring right now with monthly total at 6.13. 11.50 is my current 2019 annual-to-date. Meteorological winter-to-date is 19.12!

      I thought I might hit 20 inches yet again for another meteorological season like I did a couple of times in 2018, but this is extreme and I may approach 25 to near 30 inches by February end!

    • Prelude says:

      NWS will not and should not issue a Warning for a just in case circumstance or potential, a watch yes a warning no. NWS will monitor trust me they are well aware, its there job they do this for a living. When needed NWS will issue the necessary advisory’s watches and warnings.

  4. Jeremy says:

    Wonder what a week without flood potential would be like.

  5. Bryan says:

    Without doubt, the worst period of weather I’ve seen in 40 plus years as a Kentucky resident. By period, I mean months up to last year.

    There appears to be no end in sight for this God awful pattern

    • Debbie says:

      I heard a local (L-Ville) met last night say that the wet pattern “looks to go well into March”.

      I’m 56, and really and truly, I’ve seen some rainy periods that “seemed” as if they lasted a little while, but this is ridiculous. I know that I heard one met say that last year, we got more rain in KY than Seattle for the year. That is saying something, because I have a friend down the street that just moved back from 4 years in Walla Walla, WA, and he said it rained there “all the time, but nothing like THIS”!

      • Bobt says:

        There was something close to 180 days or recorded precipitation in my area last year. Just a miserable weather pattern in Kentucky right now .

  6. Bobt says:

    CB needs to start posting rain inches instead of snow inches. First call for rain. He could pretty much put those out daily in Kentucky. The blog could keep hits coming all year long.

  7. Jared from Letcher County says:

    We may be having flood problems down here as soon as tonight if the HRRR pans out as it’s showing several hours of heavy rain/possible thunderstorms over SEKY:

  8. BubbaG says:

    No problem CB, since rain is the one thing the models get mainly correct. Since no snow, nothing really dynamic to update much about, so you can be easy, easy on a Sunday morning!

  9. Jared from Letcher County says:

    The newest run of the GFS puts down 5-6 inches of rain in SEKY by Friday with close to 10 inches by Sunday.

  10. Terry says:

    Strong storm moving into Harlan. A lot of thunder with the sun actually out for a bit a few minutes ago. Temp now in the low 50s. This is not good. Latest data suggests 2 inches of rain on top of what fell this morning.

  11. Jeff in cross lanes says:

    By far one of the most disappointing winters in a long time. Amazing how storms veer North or South of the tristate. Amazing how models can nail rain events a week out but can’t figure snow systems 24 hours out.

    • Bobt says:

      A real threat to both property and lives this week. Hope it doesn’t rain as much as expected, but we all know that the models are much more accurate with rain amount than snow.

  12. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Rivers are already up here at the radar down south looks ominous.

    • Terry says:

      Overachieving system small system: We were only suppose to get .50 to 1.00 inch, then NWS upped the total to 1.00 to 1.50 this morning but it looks like many might hit 2 inches or better as we have a lot to go!

      • Prelude says:

        NWS out of Louisville stating heavy rainfall and flooding likely Tuesday night through Sunday. Multi-day rainfalls exceeding 6 inches. Especially over southern Kentucky and will result in flooding. Areal flooding,flash flooding, and river flooding all looking likely. NWS says they will hold off on watches on this cycle, not sure why. I imagine by the overnight cycle, watches will be issued.

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