Good Tuesday, everyone. We have another nice day taking shape, but big changes are on the way as we get ready to roll into March. Just like last year, the pattern looks to flip to a winter look as we flip the calendar to the new month and kick off meteorological spring. #teamspring ain’t happy!
The weather today and Wednesday is nice with highs in the 50s today and 60s on Wednesday as we stay dry.
Big changes show up as early as Thursday. That’s when a system brings a wintry mix of mainly rain and a tough of snow across the bluegrass state. The best chance for the true mix is across the north. The new NAM even has a touch of freezing rain…
That sets the stage for an arctic front to swing in here after that to start the upcoming weekend. The models differ on how to handle this whole thing. The GFS family has more precipitation with this and goes from rain to some snowflakes…
That’s likely overdone because… It’s the GFS.
The European Model has a quicker and flatter arctic front sweeping through here, with a developing storm right behind it for Sunday. This is a signal that’s been very consistent over the past few days…
With the cold air pushing the storm track just to our south, a scenario like that is very possible and I need to really start focusing more on this potential.
The Euro isn’t alone in showing this. The Canadian has been in lock step and has another storm system right behind that for the middle of next week…
The European Model has been seeing something similar to that by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
While it doesn’t show the Sunday system very well, the GFS is also picking up on this one…
So, things are getting very interesting for winter weather lovers. I continue to be amazed at how similar the weather is to this same time last year!
I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.
This is already looking like too much green for far southern KY. LOL
IF March ends up like last year, northern KY as usual will score some decent snow while I get the cold rain shoulder down here….MEH
The week after next looks to go right back in the overachieving rain train pattern. I hate to say this but I don’t think we have seen the worst flooding yet.
I agree Terry, I think we are in for a major flooding event. This winter has reminded me of the 76-77 winter. And in April of 77 we got the worst flood I have ever seen here in Pike Co.
I think we missed our chance at a big flood IMO. We may flood again though this spring
Yep…that is what I meant. Spring will be another flood concern unless the pattern can change. With the extremely negative PNA coming up and Southeast Ridge holding strong, I think we go right back into multiple heavy rain events after March 10th!
Let’s get this cold shot of air in and out of here quickly and move on to more spring like temperatures.
This isn’t going to last long. The GFS has been King this winter and I’m going to go with it . None of them showing a really good hit for most of the state. Let’s get this little cold spell out of here and move on to spring. I’ve not saw any extended forecasts that show any significant snow or any prolonged stretches of cold. Bring Spring.
The GFS will absolutely win, The Euro has been as bad as the FV3 (fantasy) GFS this year. These upcoming events will be overwhelmingly rain makers for the usual suspects and as Terry stated, even as Spring like temps arrive, the constant rains likely are going nowhere. Trends…..
Like I’ve said if you see green in those models….. yawn. #trends
Woohoo RAIN
No, lets think HEAVY SNOW events into late March. Then in mid April or better around the first week of May we have SPRING without those late freezes so we may have BLOOMING on our ornamental plants such as AZALEAS and RHODODENDRONS and MOUNTAIN LAUREL my favorite plants. Terry, if I knew these plants were native in and around Harlan, Kentucky I would have retired there instead of on land that has poor soil ( rocky ) and a house that is full of ASIAN BEETLES all winter long. NOT A HAPPY PERSON THIS MORNING.
I dont think we will have winter until the end of March. Just not getting any amount of sustained cold air in here this winter. I’m ready to move on to spring. We need a break after 1.5 years of rain.
Unless higher elevations, heavy snow is as probable as it has been so far. Which means not very probable. Perhaps another WAY north of I64 event.
Mother Nature made us the transitional boundary for snow this winter. AKA the fence.
Two sunny days in a row with no rain. It’s a miracle!! Can we make it three?
Per recent climo, this isn’t unheard of. Even during the awful winter of 2011-12, northern KY scored a nice hit March 5-6 before the blowtorch came. EPS puts much of the state in the hunt so I wouldn’t write off the potential just yet. Personally, I’ll take a couple inches and then sustained swing warmth shortly after. Perhaps next month will feature fun for the whole family?
New GFS model being postponed by NWS because of issues. It’s back to the “old” GFS model. Rodger in Dodger
Old GFS has done fair this winter with precipitation type. Amount and exact location hasn’t been perfect, but I still think old GFS has outperformed new GFS and even the EURO, Canadian, NAM many times this winter. New GFS needs work for sure so glad it will not be released yet!