Winter Weather Fights Back

Good Thursday, everyone. Much colder air has filtered back into the bluegrass state and it’s bringing some ugly weather with it. What we’re seeing today is just the beginning of a pattern that looks more like the heart of true winter than the beginning of meteorological spring.

That system on Sunday is a looker! I’ll get to that in a moment.

Let’s talk about the setup out there today. Temps are MUCH colder with readings in the 30s for many areas. Showers will develop from west to east and there’s the chance for some mixed precipitation in a few areas, especially across the north…

This system closes the door on February, with March trying to pull a repeat performer of what we went through last year. A VERY cold pattern is developing and likely takes control of the first two weeks of the month. This kicks off with a developing winter storm that MAY target Kentucky from Saturday night through Sunday night.

The exact impact of this for any one location is yet to be determined, but snow, rain or a combination of the two will be possible. All of this depends on the track of our storm.

The GFS continues to lay down a healthy snowfall for much of the state and region…

The Canadian Model continues to trend back to the south, bringing a healthy swath of snow to some…

The European Model is also coming back south with each passing run…

The ICON is in the camp of the GFS…

Speaking of the GFS, most of the individual members of the ENSEMBLES have a Kentucky hit…

If we expand our model arsenal, we find the UKMET with low pressure in a good spot for a Kentucky hit…

The farther north this low tracks, the better the chance for rain around here. The farther south it goes, the better the chance for snow.

I will put out a “best odds” map around noon today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.


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22 Responses to Winter Weather Fights Back

  1. Terry says:

    I am going to to make a wild guess and predict the “best odds” map has best chance for most of the state, about the northern 2/3 and leaves far western/southern SE KY out per usual. Sigh. Now, WPC shows
    Sunday in the 1 to 2 inches if rain equivalent for SE KY…LOL.

    • Bobt says:

      Look like mostly rain and backside snow showers in our part Terry. I would be okay with that if the pattern would flip to average temps for this time of year. Don’t like CB seeing the cold hanging around until mid-March. We need to catch a break.

      • Terry says:

        We really needed to stay drier longer than this too. Although I dont think Sunday’s rain will be enough to flood us, it will keep us saturated and much less of a dry spell before the pending pattern change back to more frequent rain events after week 1 of March.

  2. Andy Rose says:

    Starting out at 50 this morning at just before 6 am in Southtucky.

  3. Prelude says:

    Interesting to see the models not waffling (as of now) for a possibly at a thumping of snow this weekend especially for the river county’s in Kentucky and the I-64 corridor. I really wouldn’t give it a second look given how poorly the models have handled winter weather so far this winter. Being that said I also can’t deny the trend the last few years to have the best chances of accumulating snow’s in March. Unfortunately for SE Kentucky rain looks to be the dominant choice of precipitation that trend also continues, smh.

    • Jimbo says:

      The I64 corridor in NE Kentucky into WV will be a prime spot for rain again this time too. As per usual. From Morehead west I64 and north might have a better chance.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Seems an encore for this winter’s previous events, which would not be good for the low snow areas. The models showing most of KY have zero success this winter, beyond a day in.

  5. SpaceGhost says:

    WSAZ has been pounding this as a rain event for the tri-state referencing the Euro. Business as usual…

  6. Lisa Jones says:

    For once why cant we get all snow.

  7. Bjenks says:

    Best odds are on the Euro!!! Fence KY. Snow North of the Ohio River Rain South. Although I am rooting for the GFS ATM, if it strengthens it will pull more North thus resulting in another washout.

    • BubbaG says:

      Well, north of I64 seems to have a shot. Confused though that the models have missed every time when KY is in the bullseye and ends up way north, yet still taken seriously.

      Seems best to expect the same result and call it a surprise otherwise. For whatever reason, KY and precipitation 32 degrees and under is like oil and water this year and most of last year. AKA fence.

  8. Troy says:

    The cold isn’t going to be strong enough. Looks like good news for the usual suspects in the northern 1/3rd of KY if you like snow. For the southern 2/3rd of the state it will be a cold rain with a backside flurry as per usual., #Trends

    • Terry says:

      I hate this! I hope northern KY gets 0 inches. If we cant have any, no one should at this point. Ridiculous!

      Okay, my post is a little over the top but this is absurd to 100% get crapped on. Yes, northern half of the state over the years averages more snow, but I have never seen such a contrast from snow to no snow like the last few years. We could usually get at least one event down here but is like we are in Florida now.

  9. Jared from Letcher County says:

    So I noticed our light rain event today has turned into a moderate event with close to an inch of rain forecasted down here.

  10. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Still gotta say I am hoping for a further south trend. Not because I really want snow at this late date, but because we really do NOT need another drop of rain for a bit. But I fear that is just what southern KY will get….more rain. Hope not but we will see. (I’d bet on it) Have a good Friday Eve

    • Terry says:

      I agree. Not a big fan if March snow, but since we haven’t had any all winter, I would be okay with one, especially over rain!

      Expecting some cold damage next week as trees already starting full blooms in Harlan.

  11. Mike S says:

    Even in northern Kentucky, at Covington, their 16.5″ since December 1 sounds impressive but is 1.1″ below normal for meteorological winter (Dec-Feb).

    • Terry says:

      Pull up some data for London, KY and others on SE….I think we are definitely in the running for top 5 least snowiest years south of Jackson KY.

      Can you find any data? I am having a hard time as places like Middlesboro, Harlan and other tiny towns down here don’t seem to keep official data??!

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