Good Thursday, everyone. Much colder air has filtered back into the bluegrass state and it’s bringing some ugly weather with it. What we’re seeing today is just the beginning of a pattern that looks more like the heart of true winter than the beginning of meteorological spring.

That system on Sunday is a looker! I’ll get to that in a moment.

Let’s talk about the setup out there today. Temps are MUCH colder with readings in the 30s for many areas. Showers will develop from west to east and there’s the chance for some mixed precipitation in a few areas, especially across the north…

This system closes the door on February, with March trying to pull a repeat performer of what we went through last year. A VERY cold pattern is developing and likely takes control of the first two weeks of the month. This kicks off with a developing winter storm that MAY target Kentucky from Saturday night through Sunday night.

The exact impact of this for any one location is yet to be determined, but snow, rain or a combination of the two will be possible. All of this depends on the track of our storm.

The GFS continues to lay down a healthy snowfall for much of the state and region…

The Canadian Model continues to trend back to the south, bringing a healthy swath of snow to some…

The European Model is also coming back south with each passing run…

The ICON is in the camp of the GFS…

Speaking of the GFS, most of the individual members of the ENSEMBLES have a Kentucky hit…

If we expand our model arsenal, we find the UKMET with low pressure in a good spot for a Kentucky hit…

The farther north this low tracks, the better the chance for rain around here. The farther south it goes, the better the chance for snow.

I will put out a “best odds” map around noon today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.