Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the light mix moving across the state today and the potential for a bigger winter weather impact this weekend. Confidence continues to increase that a developing winter storm will put snow down across parts of the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with the light rain and mix rolling across the state today. This action picks up later in the day into the evening. Some pockets of freezing rain will be possible and there could even be a swath of light snow in the far north…

The weekend storm system has been fairly well behaved on the computer models over the past few days. Now, let’s hope they aren’t setting us up for a wild swing in the hours leading up to the storm system. 🙂

This system is likely to become a THREAT for a large chunk of real estate, but I’m not ready to go there just yet. I am ready to throw you a snowfall odds map out…

Again, that all depends on the exact track of the low, so the risk areas may be shifted farther north or south. A First Call For Snowfall map is probably a day away still.

A quick check of the forecast models show most of them in pretty decent agreement…

GFS

New GFS

ICON

Canadian

Bitterly cold air follows whatever we get and we could even flirt with some records. Another system may bring winter weather our way later next week.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will drop by for another KWC update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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30 Responses to Thursday Afternoon Update

  1. Jimbo says:

    Does anyone here actually believe they will get any snow accumulation on Sunday? All the locals in the tri-state, NWS, Weather Channel and Accuweather, they have all bought tickets on the rain train. I hope Chris knows something they don’t. But I just don’t think the rain train can be slowed down much less stopped.

  2. Tom says:

    As luck would have it, I’m flying to Florida on Friday.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. And yes, I have seen accumulating snow in March. Been awhile. But my part of the state will not likely see any unless it’s a little leftover light stuff at the end. But who knows. Stranger things have happened. Have a good afternoon.

  4. Lucy says:

    My local weather puts my area in a 2-5” zone. We shall see.

  5. Rodger Dodger says:

    Really unbelievable model agreement this far out! Rodger’s hoping that’s a good sign! Somebody just north of that rain/snow line could get an old fashioned snow whoopin! Rodger in Dodger

    • Jimbo says:

      You will have to reside north of the Ohio River to have any chance. And even that won’t be enough if you live close to the WV border because the warm wedge will seep over the river.

  6. Allen says:

    Rain once again, no way that line stays that far south. I,m betting on it, I,d say Cincinnati to Louisville might get some but even there it will be mostly rain. I,m thinking another one to one and a half inches of rain is a good bet, then frigid air follows for couple days before it warms enough so next system is also rain. Be safe out there all

  7. Bjenks says:

    As stated before Ohio River north for snow and south for rain. Until we have a trend buster that is what will happen. Of course even a blind squirrel, you get it. Now can we get it. Some of our biggest snows have come in March. Never remember a sustained cold snap with multiple snows though.

  8. HendersonER says:

    Apparently Chris is not the only meteorologist on here. Amazing how many people know everything for certain.

  9. Andy Rose says:

    Still no cold front here currently temp is 54

    • Terry says:

      60 here in Harlan! Rain is slowly moving in from my WSW.

      Right now, I have had no rain since early Sunday AM and still sit at 12.76 in for February. I may get just enough to approach 13 inches on the month by midnight.

      If no more rain, my already astounding total is 25.75 for my meteorological winter-to-date (December thru February)

      OVER 2 FEET OF RAIN

  10. Rolo says:

    Well this blog started out for Central and S/Se ky and going on that there be no snow except a slushy inch on backsides when do this block become the whole state we are not northern ky and Louisville forecast. So it’s time we get back to the real blog and the real area we started it for. That said hype machine trying to MAKE central ky peeps think snow coming, us old schooler no unless a shift in track we get nothing but the Elyria bill storm afterwards.

    • Prelude says:

      Attention…. Louisville, Northern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. Rolo doesn’t like the fact that CB’s blog has expanded would you guys in these particular quit posting we all are upsetting Rolo. The blog comments and weather reporting are meant only for Lexington and immediate surrounding areas. CB has apparently lost focus on what areas needs to be covered, per Rolo. Thanks for your cooperation.

      • BubbaG says:

        Well, CB really does use the word Regional a lot now, so Rolo does have a point. I think this has more to do though with the snow not really being much of KY, hence the adoption of Regional. 😉 🙂

        • Prelude says:

          What point??? That CB’s blog went from local to statewide? That’s not CB’s fault if anything it’s a compliment that CB’s blog has expanded and people from all around the state read it and comments. If CB wants his blog to be more localized he could choose only to forecast his viewing area only. The issue is CB has now a statewide following and I believe CB enjoys knowing that people from all around the commonwealth look forward to his posts. People from Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania I’ve seen comment on his post.

          • BubbaG says:

            The point is CB usually does not say Kentucky, since the Snow has not been as much as Kentucky as much as a Regional snow. Simply put, not Kentucky and more other states.

  11. Terry says:

    BREAKING: My 96 hour dry spell is over. It is raining in Harlan with heavy rain moving in soon from my WSW.

  12. BubbaG says:

    Seems CB should just post coating to 2″ and be done with it. This is not a repeat of last March. We will take our coating and like it 😉

  13. Terry says:

    Troy, it is pouring in Middlesboro. I am here for a chiropractor appt. Heavy rain all the way from Harlan to here. We are the rain capitol of KY and almost the US it seems.

    If I hit 13 inches, it will be uncharted territory for me as I have never personally recorded more than 12 and change inches of rain in a month. I already have a new record total at 12.76 (wettest month ever). I will likely be over 13 inches before midnight.

    • Troy says:

      Stay safe. Your record will likely be broken for the month and probably for the year again as well. Gonna take a significant weather event to break this God forsaken trend…it won’t just stop and I feel that this misery will last another 9-10 months. Gonna make a bold prediction of 90″+ for some locations in SE KY for 2019 .

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