Good Friday, folks. A developing winter storm will target the state late this weekend and will kick off an incredibly cold period for early March. This is a big system that will impact areas from the plains states all the way into New England.
Before we get into our winter storm, let’s focus on this first day of March. Clouds will be stubborn with temps on the chilly side. Many areas range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Another wave of low pressure will bring a few more showers to the southeast…
The overnight trend on the computer models is for our storm to take a farther south track. That would mean a better snow hit for the bluegrass state. Given that, the latest risk map takes everything farther south…
Is that far enough south or will I need to keep going with it? It will be interesting to see how today’s models play out.
Here’s a look at the latest model mania…
GFS
New version of the GFS
Canadian
ICON
The European Model had been the farthest north of the bunch, but it keeps coming farther south with each run…
Frigid temps will follow this system and there’s the chance for single digit lows early next week. That could be followed by another winter weather system moving in here by Thursday and Friday.
I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
I have waited all winter for this!
I hope it keeps moving south.
Me too…I made a bold prediction we have the snowiest month in March several weeks ago…. I mean a widespread 1 to 3 inches in one month will do it for most of us:). Still, I am not confident for SE KY but fingers crossed and toes too!
Well, I fell short of 13 inches for February, barely. Still, February 2019 is my new wettest month ever personally recorded! Can that be topped this year???
Numbers:
February—-12.83 in
Annual-to-date—-18.15 in
Meteorological winter-to-date—-25.82 in
Snowfall season-to-date—3 inches:(
Can’t wait until next week is over. Bring Spring. As usual snow for SE KY, so bring on the warmer temps.
Our luck, and I so want to be wrong, the system trends far enough south that EVERYONE AREAWIDE gets some snow except for areas south of Hal Roger’s Parkway and 80 back into western KY.
Real SE KY is south of Hal Roger’s in my geographical opinion. Unlike WYMT and other media sources, I dont consider areas as far north as Wolfe and Johnson counties as southeast KY. Even Jackson is almost halfway to the Ohio River but a little more south than halfway, so of course SOME in SE KY have had a little snow this winter and probably will again Sunday. Real SE KY includes us border counties than tend to be much warmer and less snowy than the rest of KY.
Thoughts?
Terry, did you see that link I posted for you yesterday?
Yep. Thanks for sharing. So many cities and smaller towns over 20 inches of rain since December 1st. We should submit our data and make NWS throw us on the list as well: lol, they would not consider our data as “official.”…still counts for us though. I also saw the top warmest 5 winters TN towns included in that list!
Trend buster?
If only we could actually “bring spring”.
Im interested in when sustained Spring will be here #TeamSpring
Last year’s was about two weeks.
If I recall we didn’t have spring last year. Winter stick around till April and went to straight to summer afterwards. So hopefully we will have taste of spring this year. It seems were having a repeat what occur last year this time. But hopefully spring will show up later this month.
Chris made an interesting comment about that a few posts back. Said the first two weeks of March looked frigid but after that Spring should begin to take over…said he didn’t expect winter to last into April like it did last year. He didn’t elaborate on why he thought that, but maybe he’s talking to the groundhog? (I’d personally consider third week of March an “early Spring” around here, even if not technically so.)
It’s not unusual for our region to get big March snows. Rodger remembers the March 19-20, 1995 storm which dumped about an inch of sleet and then 12″ of snow in Owensboro. A few years ago, western KY got about ten inches in March. Last year, it snowed into April. Southern moisture is rich in March and when coupled with just enough cold, our area can get a big snow. Will this weekend be a repeat? Only the skies know right now. Rodger in Dodger
Maybe 1-3 inches at the very very best. Too much bust potential for my liking.
Of course, much of central and especially eastern parts of both Kentucky and Tennessee had the incredible Blizzard/Superstorm of March 13 1993.
An interested stat about Memphis TN is that their top two single storm snows (and several others in the top ten) happened in March. One may not think that of a more southern location.
This thing is going to almost be gone by the time it gets started. It’s a fast moving storm and will probably be maybe 1.5 inches tops for the northern half of the state. That would still make it the monster snowstorm for winter 18-19. Can’t wait for warmer days ahead.
Agreed
Are we looking at 3 inches or like maybe more?
3 inches would be on the higher side in my opinion.
Where are all of the “trend” folks.. 2 days ago people were betting the house this thing would miss. Now no comments lol
Trends…IMO don’t start until the system is abroad, tomorrow, and the real data can be sampled. Waffles for the next few runs or so then bam all models go north taking the heavy axis of snow with it. The trend of FENCETucky will live on and Ohio river counties north snow south rain.
Can’t say that I am not looking for a trend buster and old skool storm all at once winter is coming to a close and we need to at least hit average here in Louisville.
It still hasn’t happened, plenty of time to still miss. Which I think it probably will for areas east of Morehead toward Charleston WV along I64. I think that area is cursed.
The local Mets here still say 0-1 inch for I 64 and a little more north of US 33. Too much rain and mixing. If this is a Winter Storm, then our expectations surely have been lowered. LOL
Still missing our area. There now you can rest Joyce
Got a lot of negative Nancy on here. I don’t recall that all models have come to agreement all winter long about potential snow until now. So this maybe be the one of Chris Bold prediction of a heavy snowstorm he made back in November. Let mother nature lay it on us and thing bring on spring.
There is nothing showing this yawn of a storm to be heavy so if your hopes are high you should temper.
I say all the complainers should temper.
Agreed!
To both Jeff and Prelude!!!
Yep I agree with the modeling statement. And they will stay in agreement with a move North tonight and tomorrow.
Moving to fast to be a heavy storm. Three to five at best for any one area, although GFS is spitting out nine to eleven inch totals for east central Kentucky over to WV?..might just get interesting.
Not a naysayer…..just wanting a trend buster.
This NORTH CENTRAL KY snow lover has learned to not to expect any snow and let the models play themselves out. Any accumulation is a bonus.
For people who hate snow like I do, saying the winter storm will miss us and it will be all rain is being positive. I hope we don’t get any snow.
The only thing most can agree on here is that we are all sick of rain.
This will be yet another bust for most and at is point I personally couldn’t care less…I just want warm dry weather to overtake this mess we’ve lived trough for the past 15+ months.
Yes 80 degrees please and dry with sunny skies and a few puffy cumulus clouds and low humidity and a gentle SW breeze.
perfect!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Even if this thing doesn’t go north it is not even a decent snowfall for 2/3 of the state. This is a fast moving system that will probably max out at maybe 3 inches tops if you live in the northern part of the state. It’s not going to snow in my backyard, but I guess that 3 inch possible snow up north would be 3 inches more snow than I’ve gotten in SEKY all winter long.
The Canadien Model is the first one to begin the northward movement the Euro has stayed north. The others should fall in line over the next 24 hours.
That’s usually the first to bust a move. Still placing bets this is more north I64. Why go against the winter trend?
This really is not fair ! I had a great post typed out in detail on my weather findings and CHRIS BAILEY WOULD NOT ALLOW IT ON THE COMMENT SECTION OF HIS BELOVED BLOG. Others have their comments posted, but mine more times than I can count, are not allowed. This is the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA and under the first amendment I have a right to my opinion.
Not on a blog. If you mean the post would not go through, that happens based on web analytics.
WRONG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey, try reviewing your original and future posts for spelling on certain words. Like the word p@$$. Notice how it has the same letters as a swear word but of course isn’t. TennMark explained this a while back that our posts will not take if the system thinks we are typing swear words, even though we are not. Certain words have the exact same letters as swear words. I hope this helps as this HAPPENS TO US ALL AND CHRIS IS NOT BLOCKING YOUR POST.
Yes, try inserting something like “-” or “*” between the letters.
p-a-s-s
pa-ss.
clas*sroom
Or use a different word.
The post was perfectly worded. The only thing is I was first to call this pattern change and that’s why it wasn’t posted. TRUTH
S – with all due respect, we need to lighten up a bit. Life is too short to get that worried about whether a comment gets posted on a blog or not. There are a lot of technical issues or potential glitches that stop a comment from posting. I seriously doubt if Chris, or anyone really, would take the time to weed through comments and strategically block a few here and there. It would be far easier to block and IP or MAC address completely.
Just keep sharing short thoughts and opinions in a way that encourages rather than discourages friendly, weather related, discourse.
I’ve posted before and it not go through. Wasn’t negative at all but I just figured that a word that I used triggered a response in the system. It’s happened more than once. CB is not policing the board unless it gets personal to him or other members. Even then he has a pretty good size leash. I highly doubt he personally pulled the comment.
I’ve been looking for the 12:30 update. Do you all think Chris is waiting for afternoon models to run to put out a first call?
I found information on the impending snowstorm for this weekend and it would give you all hope if you wanted a major snowstorm. But the post didn’t go through.