Derby Week Starts Warm and Ends Wet

Good Monday, everyone. It’s Kentucky Derby Week in the bluegrass state and that means the forecast takes on a little extra significance. As we kick off the big week, summer temps are surging in here, bringing a storm or two with them. Unfortunately, storm chances increase later in the week and some of those may linger into the bigger weekend.

Temps today warm deep into the 70s with an 80 possible in the south and west. A shower or storm may also go up as southwesterly winds usher in the warmth…

Temps for Tuesday and Wednesday will feel more like Mid-Summer than the transition days from April into May…

I can’t rule out a few spots sneaking into the middle and upper 80s if they can get enough sunshine.

A scattered shower or thunderstorm will be possible with the best chance coming Wednesday. That kicks off a rather stormy look to the pattern for Thursday into Kentucky Oaks Day Friday. I mentioned the potential for the system producing the storms to slow down and some of the models are hinting at this. The European Model keeps a storm chance going into Derby Day…

The GFS is now on board…

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this setup carry us into next week as we see one heck of a clash of air masses setting up across the country. Look at the temperature departure forecast for the next 10 days…

That looks and awful lot like the departure map from this past winter as the crazy cold just could never get into the lower Ohio Valley.

Have a great day and take care.

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10 Responses to Derby Week Starts Warm and Ends Wet

  1. Schroeder says:

    Last year was the wettest Kentucky Derby on record with 3.15 inches. This year the earlier forecast was calling for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70’s for the ” Race for the Roses” this Saturday, which would have been perfect. Now it has changed to cloudy with 30% chance of rain showers at race time. Being so far out it will likely change again. In my opinion, one could take last weeks weather pattern and “paste it” to the weather through this week and into the coming weekend. On the last map that Chris presented on this morning’s blog is indicative of a persistent centrally located weak El nino with the southwesterly winds aloft and at the surface. I don’t know for sure what I just typed is meteorological correct? So some of you more educated in meteorology can tell me what really is going on in your opinion. Meanwhile enjoy the nice Spring weather today.

  2. Schroeder says:

    I wish we had the wild Rhododendrons and azaleas here in Taylor county but, our climate won’t allow it. Not enough cool,humid days and elevation too low. Makes me sad as trying to grow them artificially is a waste of time and money. I gave up after five tries and all of them failed.

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