Good Monday and welcome to July. The new month is kicking off in similar fashion with steamy temps and a few storms on the move. The stormy weather looks to increase as we head into the long 4th of July holiday period as we go back into a rather soggy looking setup.
Let’s begin with what’s going on out there today. It’s the same as before. 🙂 Any storm that goes up may be strong or locally severe, producing torrential rains. Outside the action, it’s toasty.
Here are your storm tracking tools for this first day of the new month…
The shower and thunderstorm action looks to increase in the coming days and that should roll right on through the 4th of July weekend. Storms will come at us in waves, with the potential to put down quite a bit of rain. Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through Sunday…
Let’s add the next week’s worth of rain to the mix…
Those are some hefty two week rain totals, but that no longer comes as a shock to anyone living in this region.
Over the past week, I’ve posted some seasonal models for your amusement. As we look at some additional seasonal models that take us through the rest of summer and through fall and winter, we find a familiar theme. The CFSv2 is usually a very warm biased model across North America, so to see a lot of normal or cool showing up is very interesting.
Here’s how the model sees the three month period from July through September…
You can see a lot of normal to cooler than normal showing up in the means. As the model goes out farther in time, it becomes more generalized, but you can see a continuation of this setup for the fall ahead…
The winter that follows appears to suggest a big ridge along the west coast with a trough in the east…
Again, that’s an interesting signal considering the model is typically warm biased for most of North America.
Make it a great day and take care.
Dense fog beginning to lift this morning. Last evenings storms thankfully did not display anything severe. Rainfall storm total 0.05 inches in my county of Taylor. The temperature at the present is 68 degrees and the dreaded dew point is the same. Another day of uncomfortable weather of temperatures near or above 90 degrees. UGH ! Folks, in my opinion I think this weather type will persist will into Autumn after that it can only be equal chances whether it will be a cold snowy Winter or a warm and wet or dry Winter here in the Ohio River Valley.
Tomorrow, July second, 2008 I move to Kentucky to retire to the most remote area I could find as I wanted to get away from subdivisions in Indiana. I can now say that I made the right decision and have well adjusted to the remote area that has natural beauty with all the trees and wildlife. Especially enjoyed the 28 inch snowfall in February 2016. Snowbound for two weeks WOW !!! Loved it.
I am a fanatical data researcher/collector, Schroeder, but I do not know of any extreme amounts of snowfall like that in February 2016 for Taylor county or any other part of the state.
Is it possible you meant 2015? Some of us experienced back to back double digit amounts during mid February to early March. And was it snow depth measured or actual snow accumulation from a single storm? Those could be records for Taylor county, yet my research cannot verify such depths or actual accumulation.
” Booming on the Fourth of July” Just think of them as nature’s Fireworks. I wouldn’t cancel any picnics or other activities as you know they will not be widespread. Everyone have a great day and evening.
London KY not just wettest June, but wettest month ever in its 60+ years of weather observations, 12.22″.
I only achieved 7.81 in for June…driest area of the state in June if “dry” anywhere could be possible at this point. (LOL) My year-to-date is 38.02 which is just a tiny bit ahead of 2018’s year-to-date at this point. Unless we have a much drier fall, I think we have a decent chance of beating out 2018 for the new wettest year on record areawide!
10.54 for june in my back yard that includes the 0.75 we got in less than 15 minutes last night.
I wonder how these very early winter models compared to last year’s? Last year was huge bust. If the models predicted cold and snow then they were terrible. If they predicted warm and rainy they were spot on.
Way too early to look at models for winter anyway. As a matter of fact, come winter, I wont buy into any model run more than 12 hours out. Been fooled far too many times.
We got fooled 12 hours out last December!
Literally, we have to go about 3 hours out at times lately…the December SE KY bust of the century, or at least I hope that is the worst the models perform again anytime soon! 24 inch average in Harlan on the NAM, EURO and New GFS ended up less than 1/2 in turn to all rain!!!