Good Tuesday, folks. We are rolling into our looooooong 4th of July holiday period with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Obviously, that doesn’t bode well for all the outdoor activities we have planned, but it’s not like wall to wall rain. Still, make sure to have some backup plans. 🙂

Let us begin with where we are today and roll ahead. Scattered showers and storms will be noted once again. A few strong storms can put down torrential rains. I’ll have your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for strong to severe storms looks to increase as we make our way into Wednesday. You can see that threat on the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Our 4th of July looks to feature scattered storms going up, with the potential for a few waves of stronger storms to work across the state. This isn’t all day rains, but the storms are likely to play a part in some of the parades and fireworks shows.

This pattern will continue through the rest of the holiday weekend. Rounds of thunderstorms can be strong and put down heavy amounts of rain from time to time. The models are still spitting out some hefty totals through Sunday…

Cooler air likely comes in behind that into next week and this is a trend that’s showing up on most of the operational models and then ensembles. It’s also showing up on the seasonal models like the CFS…

Here’s the same model for the final week of July…

How about the first week of August? Well…

That has been a very consistent signal for a while, so we will see how that goes.

Here are your July 2nd storm tracking tools…

Have a great day and take care.