Tropical Moisture Moves In

Good Monday, folks. The remnants of Hurricane Barry continue to slowly move into the region, bringing tropical rain producing showers and storms. This action will increase over the next few days as we continue to watch for local high water issues to develop. A few strong or severe storms are also possible.

The extended forecast looks fun and I will get to that in a bit.

First, we start with what’s going on out there today. Tropical humidity will fire up scattered showers and storms across the eastern half of the state. The western half of the state will see the greatest concentration of showers and storms as what’s left of Barry starts to have an impact. A few of the storms may be strong or severe. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

The west will see the heaviest rain potential today, but any storm that goes up can put down torrential rains.

Here are your tracking tools to start the week…

The rain from Barry then slowly slides east across the state Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing the potential for more showers and storms. Heavy rainfall continues to be a good bet, but it’s not raining all the time. Once again, local flash flooding issues may develop.

A big heat ridge is going to build in from the plains into the Great Lakes later this week into the weekend. Some clusters of thunderstorms may dive in here ahead of this at some point and that’s something to watch for. A few days of heat are a good bet, but the hottest air appears to bypass us to the north.

If you recall, the medium range models and seasonal models were all advertising some cooler shots diving into the eastern half of the country for the middle of this month. Obviously, Barry changed the pattern, but should we give up on those cooler shots? Once Barry completely gets out of the way, the original signal for cooler temps comes back…

GFS

GFS Ensembles

Delayed but not denied? We shall see.

Have a great Monday and take care.


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19 Responses to Tropical Moisture Moves In

  1. Terry says:

    I just don’t buy over 10 degrees below average for late July, especially for that long of a time span. It would literally only be 70s by day and 50s by night several days in a row for that medium range to be correct. Not going to happen IMO.

    • Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

      We can dream can we?

    • Prelude says:

      That’s just the GFS the Euro is not at all onboard with the GFS being that cool.

      • Prelude says:

        I’ve heard the GFS is very good on sniffing out a pattern change before most models catch on problem with the GFS is it has a tendency of exaggeration. Case in point the GFS grossly exaggerates snowfall amounts during the winter months. If one would believe the GFS during winter months with snowfall amounts the Ohio Valley would average 50+ inches of snowfall per year.

        • AC says:

          Maybe cut the forecast differential in half and go for 3 to 5 degrees below normal instead of 10. Highs in the low 80’s. Lows in the mid to upper 60’s.

    • Troy says:

      I agree. We’ve been talking about a cool down for 2 months now and it hasn’t happened yet. I’ll believe it only when I see it.

      • Prelude says:

        It seems like with each model the much needed rain totals that were expected just a couple days ago gets smaller and smaller. 1-3 inches of rain looks to now to be .50-1.50 inches. Best I can manage today rain wise was several hours worth of sprinkles not enough to even wet the ground.

  2. Dottie says:

    Been a little too warm to sleep, so no dreaming for me. But if I could it would be of cooler weather.

  3. Schroeder says:

    I will take a Blizzard over a heat wave for sure, but that’s just me. LOL I must say that some of the hardy young people out there will have a great time in the swimming pool when that huge Subtropical High Pressure takes over. Have fun but be careful.

  4. David in Gtown says:

    Does anyone have a link to a precip map? We had quite a lightshow to our north, south, east, and west last night. Had some wind, some thunder, even a severe storm warning 3 miles east, and still not a single drop of rain. There should be a pronounced donut hole of nothing above the Kroger area in Georgetown.

    It seems weird how certain weather hits and misses certain areas. There have been 5 storms to hit the NE side of Georgetown-Walmart/Toyota area since we’ve had anything near Kroger-4 miles SW of there. During the big snow event on 2015, the narrow band of 20 inches was squarely on top of us though. We had baseball sized hail a few years back that did not hit any other area of town. A few years back when a severe weather outbreak was underway-WKYT had a reporter at Kroger. Tornado sirens were blaring, skies were funky looking and dark. Chris threw the segment to the field reporter by asking if there had been any flooding reported or damage, the storm completely blew over and did nothing-not even a raindrop.

  5. Schroeder says:

    I only saw baseball size hail once back in April 1960. I was in the fourth grade and the principle called everyone to the basement of the school and when the storm was finished there was almost a foot of hail on the ground and a lot of tree damage and cars were destroyed. Don’t want that weather type again !

  6. Schroeder says:

    Have a great afternoon and evening everyone !

  7. Teacher T says:

    Hey, Chris,
    Is what is coming over Estill County now (4:00) part of the outer feeder bands of Barry or part of another front?

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