Good Sunday, folks. It’s another typical late July day in the bluegrass state, but stormy changes are a brewin’ for the week ahead. This is the week we make the transition from July to August and those storms will begin to knock the temps back down, with a bigger blast of cool air possible in the first full week of the month.
Temps today are back into the middle and upper 80s as we hang on to a mix of sun and clouds. A shower or thunderstorm will go up during the afternoon and evening hours, but this looks fairly scattered…
A system is dropping in from the northwest later Monday into Tuesday and will bring a much bigger increase in showers and storms, especially Tuesday…
Temps will come back down during this time and may not get out of the upper 70s for some on Tuesday. The trough digging in splits with one piece slowly working into the south. That may keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast through the week, with a possible uptick by the end of the week and next weekend.
That’s when a deeper trough looks to dig into much of the eastern half of the country. This has been pretty well advertised for a while and fits the overall pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. The Ensembles show what I’m talking about…
GFS Ensembles
Canadian Ensembles
European Ensembles
That shows the developing -EPO very well with the trough developing to the east of Hawaii and ridging over top it into Alaska. Here’s a different way of looking at it…
For those who have been reading me for years, you know a -EPO is usually a good indicator for a trough to develop across the eastern part of the country.
Have a great day and take care.
Thanks Chris, Your giving hope to all those who want a cold snowy winter here in the Ohio Valley. Glad to see the models are somewhat in agreement with the cooler than normal first week in August. Alaska could have a very warm Winter and NOAA latest on ENSO is to go towards neutral this Fall and Winter which would give all the oscillations more influence on our weather. Start the Winter talk as I’m tired of Summer. LOL
I hope those showers are few and far between as last week we had 3.13 inches of rain. Yesterday, here in central Kentucky we had a beautiful day with highs in the mid to upper eighties and not too bad on the dew points either.
The NAO and AO are trending very negative! If only this were December or later. Sigh.
As always with models, we shall see.
Looking at 2019 precipitation totals, Harlan county’s Black Mountain continues to lead the way at 51.39″. Meanwhile, Paducah in western Kentucky is closely behind at 51.22″
I mention these totals for the YEAR, because I’ve been reading up on the relatively newest member of U.S. Weather records. For several years, the nation’s 24-hour precipitation record was in Alvin, TX, just south of Houston at 43″. While this record remains for the contiguous United States, a new national record for 24-hour rainfall was established last year on April 14-15 at Waipa Garden, Kauai in the Hawaiian Islands of 49.69″, in a 24-HOUR PERIOD. That’s an amazing amount of rainfall. The world record is even more insane at 71.85″ on Reunion Island set back in 1966.
Lol I can always count on reading “cooler cold blasts way cooler than normal struggling temps blah blah every year, every season on this site….doesnt it seem strange summer after summer, spring after spring, fall after fall, and then warmer winters almost every year? Look back over the years….broken record.
Utterly false take.
Yeah, but that’s what makes meteorology interesting and this could be an interesting Winter for our region of the country. All the signals are already showing up just what it did in 1976. That year November was the coldest on record and driest in southwest Indiana and that was the beginning of a very cold and snowy winter through 1977. Spring that year was cold and wet and very late. The Summer, especially June had a week of very hot and dry weather (temperatures of 103 degrees were common) but this broke in July and we had another cold and snowy Winter in 1977-78.