Good Wednesday, folks. The first in a series of cold fronts is pressing across the region today, bringing a few storms and cooler air with it. We have two more fronts on the tarmac and waiting for the runway to clear so they can glide on into the bluegrass state.
Today starts with scattered showers and storms, but ends on a better note as dry air takes control from west to east. Temps will generally be in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon.
The next front will then drop in here from the northwest late Thursday into Friday. This front look continues to look fairy active, but still isn’t washout material. Storms will fire up by Thursday evening and continue into Friday and there’s the chance for a few strong or severe storms.
Here’s the Thursday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
Here’s the Friday risk area…
Once that gets out of the way, the weather for Saturday into the first part of Sunday looks really good as our front slows down to our south. That boundary may try to inch back to the north by late Sunday and Monday, touching off a few northwest to southeast moving thunderstorm clusters. This will be ahead of the next front set to arrive a few days later…
That will knock the temps back down for the middle and end of the week. Looking at the overall pattern, I highly doubt we make it through August without one more heat surge.
Let’s get back to the weather of the day. Here are your middle of the week tracking tools…
Have a great day and take care.
I agree with Chris pertaing too another heat surge before August is over, or at least around the first of September as the negative oscillations generally reverse after about two weeks (this happened already in July after the blocking allowed for a slightly cooler late June). Also, we are in a low period with the Atlantic Tropics in part the current MJO phase which should reverse right in time for the peak of the season near September first!
I just don’t understand all of these oscillations and how they effect our weather here in the Ohio Valley ? And how they are able to forecast way down the weather road using only the oscillations along with other factors that may be involved. It makes it very confusing for me as a student of meteorology. The various weather models that are release daily are base on a normal jet stream which we seem not to have anymore. Take for instance the current jet stream in which there are two at the present the Polar jet (-) which is running from the state of Alaska to the northern area of the Great Lakes and then riding east into the North Atlantic Ocean. The other Subtropical jet (+) is riding a ridge of high pressure over the southwest and was merging with the Polar jet near Lake Superior bringing severe weather threats to those areas and now tomorrow through central Ohio. Now they are forecasting the high pressure to our south to flatten out and merge with a piece of the Bermuda High and cause a zonal flow across the central part of the country within the next five days. Not good if you don’t like hot and dry weather and a large cooling bill. This weather pattern for a number of years has really “stumps me ” as I can’t get a handle on anything that’s going on in the Earth’s atmosphere and every article that I study has a completely different outcomes. It all boils down as clear as mud and maybe that is the way it is suppose to be. End of rant.
I know CB is going to love hearing this…But unofficially, it is abnormally dry in my part of Jefferson County. In fact, Louisville has still recorded just 1.31″ since July 1. Throw in 29 days of 90-degree heat, and the top 2″ of soil is looking dry. We’ll see what the drought report says tomorrow, officially.
Yeah, I watched Louisville miss out on the rain yesterday evening with a good cell merging cluster form barely SW running into TN and some training cells along I-64. We got 0 in Harlan with front #1 as well; however, we have had AVERAGE rainfall lately…no complaints as not dry or wet short-term, still wet long-term= happy plants:). Really, only June has been above average MONTHLY since February in Harlan. Unlike last year, the rain amounts have varied quite a bit more from one area to the next in KY and regionally around our state. Honestly, Lville has had about the lowest rainfall statewide since July 1st…hard to believe just 50 miles from me that areas in Knox and Whitley had around 10 inches for July…such a difference across the state!
On the Kentucky Mesonet some good rains occurred just to our south and west of my county of Taylor. A lot of wind damage and vivid lightning in and around Nashville, Tennessee. We had lightning to our west but no rain to report here in my county. I think there is a tongue of high pressure over central Kentucky and parts of southeast Kentucky as good rains were reported over the northeastern part of the state. As for high temperatures in July we recorded low nineties about five days but not in a row.
OK Chris. Let’s turn the taps on – things are starting to dry out in my part of Richmond.
Indeed, weather is varying greatly this summer in nearby areas. Along TN border we have had plenty (and I do mean PLENTY) of rain, and a very cool, pleasant Summer.