Watching A Tuesday Cold Front

Good Monday, everyone. Very toasty temps are back in the bluegrass state today, but the threat for a few strong to severe storms will soon take center stage. This action is along and ahead of a strong late summer cold front dropping in here over the next few days.

Temps should reach 90ish in many areas, but some clouds and scattered showers and storms may go up and help out the temperature cause. There’s even a low-end threat for a few strong or severe storms to go up across the north. Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

As our cold front sinks into the state on Tuesday, thunderstorms start to crank. These storms may pack damaging winds and large hail as they roll east/southeast during the day. Here’s the Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook…

These storms will also be prolific lightning and heavy rain makers, so local flash flooding is something to watch for. Not everyone gets in on this action, with the greatest coverage being across the south and east.

In addition to the storm threat, any sun ahead of our front will make it feel like a sauna for a few hours. Heat index numbers around 100 will be possible.

A disturbance will follow that up on Wednesday and bring another threat for showers and thunderstorms. This is when temps come down several degrees.

The pattern after that finds the heat taking jabs at us through next week. Given the fact we are on the outer edges of this heat, we may see thunderstorms roll in from time to time. For the first time in a while, the Ensembles are painting above normal rainfall around here over the next 2 weeks…

You can also see a little ring of fire pattern in that above normal rainfall depiction, with the southern plains and deep south in the frying pan.

I leave you with your Monday storm tracking toys…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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20 Responses to Watching A Tuesday Cold Front

  1. Terry says:

    With SE KY on the edge of below average precipitation as predicted for the next two weeks above, I will take whatever I can get tomorrow! The tropics should heat up in about two weeks, so that may spice things up a bit and help end our boring August weather blues, lol.

    I will enjoy the endless sunshine as much as I can as it will be autumn, then winter before we know it, with 90% of our days cloudy, with or without snow as we all very well know! And of course, I am hoping for more snow and less rain this winter:)

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, Great Blog. Glad you explained ” the ring of fire pattern ” now I learned some more about meteorology. I don’t think that I would have to go back to school to learn meteorology, I will just continue to read your blog every morning as long as my aging eyes hold up. I really have learned so much since I joined in on the comment section also. You have a lot of GREAT commentators in which to learn. Everyone have a great day and take care.

  3. AC says:

    Bluegr-a-s-s region starting to get a touch dry. Just a little rain here in the past couple weeks here in LEX. Not terribly worrisome, but we could use a quarter to half inch here. Hoping all the rain does not miss us, based on the timing of the front. That’s happened a couple of times in a row recently.

    • MarkLex says:

      what difference would timing make? I mean, I saw heavy storms on radar out west at 5 am this morning from the same front.

      • Terry says:

        Without daytime heating to help build instability, there will be less widespread t-storm activity if a front comes through at late night/early morning this time of year without a strong surface low. It doesn’t mean IT WANT OR CAN’T RAIN, just a lower widespread event for the western half of KY due to frontal timing!

        • MarkLex says:

          I guess I was just confused because I’ve been seeing strong widespread storms with this front during the late-night through very early morning

          • Terry says:

            No, you were right in your thoughts but the short wave of energy was farther west, northwest of west KY last night and this morning. Now, you all in Central and West KY may get some boomers tonight late but the better energy tomorrow will be around Lexington (your area), on SE coupled with daytime heating. Timing can be crutial at times.

  4. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Yes, it doesn’t look promising for Louisville.
    We need the rain big time.

  5. Terry says:

    CPC has the Eastern Half of the state in both slight risk for severe weather and elevated risk for flash flooding on Tuesday with possible training storms. I hope I get a good 1 to 2 inches of rain as it looks dry for a good while after Wednesday morning and very hot too!

  6. Schroeder says:

    Everyone at the top right on Chris’s Blog page a message comes up “Plugin Blocked” do you know what this means ? I am not computer literate and I just wonder if my post are going through ? Please help me figure this out. Thanks to all in advance.

  7. Radar is rather dismal right now…my Louisville lawn is about to burst into flames 😉

  8. Mark says:

    Chris still refuses to use the term “dry” in his posts. Believe it or not, CB, some areas of north-central KY are in desperate need of rain as only meager amounts have fallen since the beginning of July. No one is saying these areas are in an “official” drought (yet), but my weather friend, it is very dry in some locations of KY and this continued dryness will result in a drought status before too long. It would be great if you could acknowledge all aspects of KY weather in your blog and not just hype the wet / stormy periods. After all, people do follow your blog to learn about all types of weather, and not just get a daily forecast.

  9. TennMark says:

    The SPC currently has a 10 percent chance of a tornado for central Illinois which sounds somewhat more like the spring months rather than August. Still looks like the overall tornado threat for Kentucky and Tennessee will be fairly low tomorrow. But as CB touched on, there’s a higher risk of damaging t-storm winds.

    Despite all the thunderstorms we can get in the summer, July August and September tornadoes in our area tend to be few and far between and are relatively weak. Neither Kentucky nor Tennessee have had any deadly July tornadoes in recorded history. I had to look it up, but Kentucky has not had a fatal August tornado since August 27 1854 (yes, even before the US Civil War). Even that tornado was only an F2 with a short damage path, but unfortunately it occurred in a populated area just south of downtown Louisville.

    • Terry says:

      Other than the Hurricane Season, August and usually September, are two months I have to suffer through due to inactivity weather wise. Every now and then, August and September get active (ex. Last Year) but usually boring overall with weather when the tropics are dead. Tropics look to get active in the near future, however:)

      • TennMark says:

        Yes, even if one may enjoy experiencing summer weather like I do, the dynamics of summer meteorology are generally not too interesting. There are occasional exceptions. Besides your mention of hurricanes in tropical waters, we did have that remarkable derecho during the summer of 2012. But typical summer t-showers resulting from the mere daytime heating of humid air? Kind of meh, especially after the sun goes down and those t-showers lose their energy.

        Unfortunately, more “exciting” weather can mean conditions that are more life threatening such as hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, etc.

    • TennMark says:

      Tornado Watch has been issued for central Illinois and southern Indiana so it’s not far that from Kentucky.

      However, the tornado threat may be waning a little as the storms go south. The SPC has lowered tornado chances from 10 percent earlier to a 5 percent chance of happening within 25 miles of a point within central Illinois.

      However, there’s still a 30 percent chance of straight line winds reaching severe limits (roughly 60 mph).

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