Another Early Fall Cold Front Arrives

Good Tuesday, folks. The second fall cold front in  less than a week is set to push across the state late today into early Wednesday. This will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it and a push of absolutely awesome air behind it. There’s a third front waiting in the wings for Labor Day Weekend.

As always, we start you out with what’s going on today. Temps will be warmer than out water-logged Monday as winds begin to gust up from the southwest. A pretty concentrated wall of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, working from west to east. Locally heavy rains are a good bet once again.

Here are your Tuesday tracking toys…

As mentioned, the air behind this front will look and feel awesome. Temps on Wednesday will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s in many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity levels absolutely bottom out for August and that continues through Thursday and Friday. Highs on Thursday may even be a little cooler than Wednesday.

Overnight lows will drop deep into the 50s, with upper 40s potentially showing up in the coolest valleys Thursday…

What do we do with your Labor Day Weekend? There are many variables at play as a cold front drops into the region from the north. The models are a little quicker with this by late Friday…

I think that front is now likely to check up on top of the Ohio Valley over the Labor Day Weekend. That could, at least, give us a scattered storms threat…

There’s also the chance for a wave of low pressure to develop along the boundary. One reason this front may not get very far south is coming from way in the south.

Let’s go to the tropics where Dorian continues to head into the Caribbean and may head eventually toward the Bahamas or Florida…

cone graphic

The stronger this system is, the more of a chance it has of, directly or indirectly, impacting our weather. This may very well cross Florida and enter the Gulf. What kind of system will we be dealing with at that time remains to be seen. Stay tuned.

Have a great day and take care.


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27 Responses to Another Early Fall Cold Front Arrives

  1. TennMark says:

    Way way back in 1854 on this date (Aug 27) was a tornado in Louisville:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=tornado_climatology_1854
    It was estimated to be of only F2 strength with a path of less than two miles. Thus, a twister like this one could have been quickly forgotten after the damage was cleaned up. But by terrible misfortune, this tornado made a direct hit on a crowded church. Over 20 people lost their lives.

    However, this appears to be the only fatal August tornado in Kentucky’s recorded history (and no recorded August tornado deaths in Tennessee). At least according to publications like Thomas Grazulis “Significant Tornadoes” and such.

    As we know, spring is on average peak season in Kentucky and Tennessee for twisters, including tornadoes above EF2 strength. On somewhat rare occasions, these stronger twisters can also occur in our region during late fall and even winter.

    But the few July/August/September tornadoes recorded in Kentucky and Tennessee tend to be relatively weak…..none in KY have been rated higher than F2/EF2. Any stronger tornadoes this time of year tend to be closer to Canada. Thus, this 1854 Louisville event (again, “only” an F2) causing such high loss of life in August thankfully seems to be an anomaly.

    • TennMark says:

      As my free time seems to have become rather scarce the last few years, I admit to recycling some of my old posts from earlier this decade (think I started posting late 2011). A risk is including obsolete info, and the above URL link for all I know has been invalid for years.

      Here’s a current working link from NWS Louisville
      https://www.weather.gov/lmk/tornado_climatology_1854

  2. Schroeder says:

    Your knowledge of Tornadoes never ceases to amaze me.

    • TennMark says:

      I mainly just learn from the experts, This said, the m-a-s-s-i-v-e April 27 2011 outbreak in Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Virginia and other states is one of the bigger influences which later made me study twisters during my free time. I even become a trained NWS storm spotter.

      On that evening in 2011, a high end EF4 ended up missing my parents near Chattanooga/Cleveland TN by only about eight miles as the crow flies. For what seemed like an eternity, my folks were unreachable because of downed lines and jammed phone circuits. Until my brother finally found out they were safe with only superficial damage in their area, we didn’t know if they were alive or otherwise. Such scary times can sure make you appreciate your parents more, even eight years later as my folks enter their later years.

      I later observed the devastation near Cleveland TN with homes virtually leveled, remnants of standing tree trunks stripped of their bark (the smell of pine was in the air), metal power poles twisted like aluminum foil. In at least one case, an entire family of four was wiped out.

  3. Schroeder says:

    One inch of much needed rain fell all day long yesterday where I live in central Kentucky. A real good soaking. I was sorry to see on the Kentucky Mesonet that areas of the state miss out. Hopefully, those areas will receive relief today with the cold front coming through later today.

  4. Schroeder says:

    On another note I have been ill the last few days and have not tuned in to read the comment section. I became very upset when Meteorologist Chris Bailey call out Mark this past Thursday for expressing his very intelligent post on why DROUGHT should be discuss as a WEATHER EVENT. At first under confusion I sided with Chris and now I’m siding with Mark. Drought is a weather event just as Flooding is and Meteorologist should report on this as Agriculture is our most important industry in our Great Country. For now on when it gets DRY in those areas I will do my best to bring this weather event to everyone’s attention on this Blog. Another thing I apologized to Farmer43 for saying that he should install irrigation when I know this is not feasible for Farms in our area. Chris Bailey you can call me out or even BAND ME for not agreeing with you not considering reporting on DROUGHTS of any stage. End of Rant

    • Mike S says:

      While not introducing a civil war renewal on this site, one has to consider CB’s view that true drought is more of a prolonged issue, whereas a ‘normal’ part of summer and autumn are going to have extremely dry, short-term periods (we just have not had too many in recent years). Still, this beautiful commonwealth is known for its agricultural and livestock interests, and a persistent dry stretch during the heart of the growing season can have profound effects on these. Especially in CB’s market audience of the vast countryside of the [email protected]$$, any dry stretches related to that area should be addressed, at least show some concern, perhaps show a practical map called the Palmer Crop Moisture Index, an imperfect, less contentious, short-term presentation of the past few weeks of weather’s effects on the soil. And then could have used that as a springboard to the expected wet weather outlook that would alleviate these concerns. CB may have done this on television, but I don’t follow WKYT here in Louisville.

      • Schroeder says:

        MikeS Well written but I wasn’t trying to start another argument on drought events. If we have dry years I will bring them to everyone’s attention. In my county now the crops are damage badly by the drought we have experience this late Summer.

    • Mark says:

      I don’t have a problem with what CB said, as I was the first to call him out. And he’s right, none of us have to read his blog if we don’t like what he’s discussing. But, I still believe by ignoring or discounting certain types of weather, that isn’t a good look for a professional meteorologist, especially one in the public eye. People visit these blogs to learn and better understand why the weather is doing what it’s doing in their backyard. When it suddenly turns dry in someone’s neighborhood in the heart of summer, it’s normal to be concerned. Dry spells of a few weeks are common in summer (and any time of year), but when that dry spell reaches a month or longer, then acknowledging it is appropriate. Pretty much every other meteorologist I heard was talking about the dry conditions that had set in in north-central KY. Fortunately, the rain of the past few days has really helped around Louisville and temporarily ceased dry concerns. It might not reflect in that drought monitor map this week, though, because of the timing of the update. Let’s hope rainfall is back to “normal” levels for everyone in September so we can stop stressing about it being dry in our backyards!

  5. Schroeder says:

    Best Wishes and Speedy Recovery for one of our best commentators the Coffeelady. May GOD BEST Her and Her Family during these Trying Times.

  6. Schroeder says:

    The Tropics are really “heating up” and I was hoping this wouldn’t happen as this usually determines not always what our Fall and Winter will be ?

    • Mike S says:

      Sometimes I look west, way out west, across the Pacific toward Japan for any strong tropical systems that may curve northeast and eventually bring ‘us’ below normal temperatures several days out, possibly introducing the needed pattern change that ultimately leads us into Autumn.

  7. Schroeder says:

    I always look for the “West Coast” high pressure ridge and also any signs of a weak El Nino and how far south the cold fronts go. The fronts of here lately have been “hanging up” and been swinging back north as a warm front which gives some lucky areas much needed rains. In my opinion I think our Fall and Winter pattern is beginning to set up now with the battle ground just to our south. I just hope we don’t have any ice storms like we had in 2009.

  8. Andy Rose says:

    It only managed 0.21 inches here yesterday It wasn’t as “water-logged” as it apparently was in some other areas but temps are still about 10 degrees above yesterday at this time currently sitting at 80 with 0.08 inches of rain for the day so far in Knox County

  9. Mike S says:

    CB, Farmers Almanac touting a harsh winter for much of the East U.S.

  10. Schroeder says:

    Don’t get me wrong I have a lot of respect for Meteorologist Chris Bailey. Looking forward to Fall and Winter hopefully with at lease five good snowstorms statewide and no ice storms please. Everyone have a good evening.

  11. Russell says:

    TennMark that was a huge severe event….I have hours of video of James Spann broadcasting in Alabama during that outbreak.

    • TennMark says:

      I was online at the time and even briefly watched the Tuscaloosa AL tornado live as it happened with James Spann being his very best (along with Jason Simpson, who is now Chief Meteorologist at a Huntsville AL station).

      I was single then, and stayed at work after hours as a safety precaution. My workplace at that time was a strong steel/concrete structure with a basement! Glad I never needed to take shelter.

  12. Dave says:

    No rain here in Corbin yet. Forecasts call for warmer temps every day through next Tuesday….mid to high 80s

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