Early Fall Feel Settles In

Good Wednesday, everyone. A cold front is now sliding to our south and east, giving us a reinforcing shot of the early fall feeling air we’ve had for well over a week now. From this point, much of the forecast pattern hinges on what happens in the tropics.

Temps out there today are generally in the upper 70s and low 80s with very low humidity levels. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with dry conditions. There’s still a small chance for a lingering early day shower in the far east…

With clear skies and low humidity levels tonight, temps may flirt with “chilly for August” standards. Lows will drop deep into the 50s with an outside chance for some upper 40s in the coolest valleys.

Thursday’s weather looks awesome with generally 75-80 for high temps. Woot!

This brings us to the Labor Day weekend and a couple of factors we are watching for. One is a cold front dropping in from the north late Friday. That could spark a shower or storm in the north…

That front slows down on top of the region through Saturday and Sunday and could spark a shower or thunderstorm…

A lot of what happens with that front will be dictated by what happens off the Florida coast over the Labor Day Weekend. The above GFS model shows Dorian missing Florida and heading toward the Carolinas.

Here’s the latest on Dorian from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

The forecast calls for this to become a hurricane and head toward Florida, but there is a bit of a split developing in the models. Does this cross Florida and go into the Gulf or does it curve up the east coast?

Here’s what the hurricane models have to say…

The GFS Ensembles…

The older version of the GFS is similar to what the new version shows, a hurricane heading toward the Carolinas before getting entrained into a deep trough across the eastern part of the country…

The Canadian Model is trying to do something similar, but is a bit farther west…

Further complicating things is the potential for a weaker system to develop out ahead of Dorian in the Gulf of Mexico.

Lots of factors have to be figured out in the coming days!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.


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11 Responses to Early Fall Feel Settles In

  1. Andy Rose says:

    I received my 1st decent rainfall this month late last night and early this morning at just over 1 inch

  2. Andy Rose says:

    I actually got my 1st decent rainfall of the month last night and early this morning at just over 1 inch.

  3. Schroeder says:

    0.74 in my backyard. Beautiful day with just a hint of Autumn. Farms remain dry in counties to my extreme west and in the north central part of the state. Heaviest rains were recorded at 4.44 inches in Bath county according to the Kentucky Mesonet.

  4. Illinois Mike says:

    I always enjoy reading TennMark’s posts about various historic tornadoes, so I thought I would include this one, which I actually lived through.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Plainfield_tornado

    On August 28, 1990 (29 years ago today), the strongest, deadliest tornado to ever hit the United States in the month of August devastated Plainfield IL (35 miles SW of Chicago) and also Crest Hill IL, killing a total of 29 people, injuring 365, and destroying or severely damaging hundreds of homes and businesses. The F5 tornado destroyed Plainfield High School and St. Mary’s Church and school. Entire blocks were totally leveled.

    Our house was just one mile away from the high school and church that were destroyed. On our block, the only damage was some broken tree limbs.

    My mom, brother, and I did not even know there was a tornado at the time because even though I had a NOAA weatheralert radio, there was no tornado warning issued until about 15-20 minutes after the tornado struck. Plainfield’s only tornado siren, which was located near the high school, was blown down by the tornado.

    Shortly after the tornado struck, we heard non-stop sirens of various emergency vehicles coming to the scene, and after the weather cleared over an hour later, various helicopters from the Chicago TV stations were overhead. The power at our house was out for 25 hours.

    I rode my bike to the areas near the high school afterwards a few hours later, and never have I seen such total devastation. It looked like a bomb went off.

    I did go outside and collected hailstones that fell about 20 minutes before the tornado hit.

    I’m in my early 50s, and that is a day I’ll never forget. If the tornado had moved just one mile to the NE, I might not even be here posting this.

    My apologies for the lengthy post, hope this was interesting for everyone.

    • Schroeder says:

      IIIinois Mike, Thanks for sharing. Tornadoes always fascinated me and I enjoy reading all that are posted on the forum. Glad you escape the worse of that dangerous storm.

    • TennMark says:

      Thanks, Illinois Mike. Riveting account.

      I don’t recall the Plainfield tornado when it happened (I was only six). However, I do remember WGN’s Tom Skilling talking about it on what was probably the second anniversary. That and at the same time CNN showing the aftermath of Florida devastated by Hurricane Andrew was somewhat scary for this eight year old to absorb.

      The Plainfield IL tornado happening in August did cement in my young brain that summer t-storms produce big tornadoes. It’s only in recent years that I finally learned that on average large summer tornadoes are generally confined to more northern states, not Kentucky/Tennessee. Sure wish I had known this during my younger years 🙂 .

      I meant to post a few days ago on the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew striking Florida, but life has been so busy it slipped by.

  5. AC says:

    Feeling is the models will correct north, end up having Dorian just off the eastern coast of Florida; then going north before turning right and back out to sea. Some coastal impacts to FL, GA, NC, SC, rip currents and huge waves. Coastal areas of these states may have some flooding rains. Hoping Dorian doesn’t make a landfall. System in Gulf of Mexico hopefully helps keep Dorian away from heading into the same area. Trough needs to dig in and move to help push Dorian into the Atlantic.

    • Schroeder says:

      Maybe if Dorian moves up the East Coast it will bring a stronger trough further south given our area some much cooler high temperatures so we can turn off the air conditioners.

  6. Schroeder says:

    I’ve notice that since 2016 the cold fronts don’t have the push to drive them further south in the late Fall and Winter. Anyone have thoughts on this ? What happened to the Polar Vortex which use to visit our area about every other year ? In my opinion we are well over due for a good old fashion cold snowy Winter, but the Old Farmers Almanac is giving out a Winter forecast that doesn’t make sense to me.

  7. 540 line says:

    In SE KY, Folks have used the husk of the corn to
    Predict the coming winter wx
    for years:
    (It must be locally grown corn not from
    Iowa or Nebraska)

    1) Husk is thin and easy to shuck =
    mild winter, very little snow

    2) Husk is thick and hard to shuck =
    Bitter cold winter with lots of snow

    Personally I am hoping for lots of snow!

    Sadly, in Whitley County folks have
    told me that
    Their husks have been thin and
    easy to shuck.

    We shall see ….

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