Good Wednesday, everyone. A cold front is now sliding to our south and east, giving us a reinforcing shot of the early fall feeling air we’ve had for well over a week now. From this point, much of the forecast pattern hinges on what happens in the tropics.

Temps out there today are generally in the upper 70s and low 80s with very low humidity levels. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with dry conditions. There’s still a small chance for a lingering early day shower in the far east…

With clear skies and low humidity levels tonight, temps may flirt with “chilly for August” standards. Lows will drop deep into the 50s with an outside chance for some upper 40s in the coolest valleys.

Thursday’s weather looks awesome with generally 75-80 for high temps. Woot!

This brings us to the Labor Day weekend and a couple of factors we are watching for. One is a cold front dropping in from the north late Friday. That could spark a shower or storm in the north…

That front slows down on top of the region through Saturday and Sunday and could spark a shower or thunderstorm…

A lot of what happens with that front will be dictated by what happens off the Florida coast over the Labor Day Weekend. The above GFS model shows Dorian missing Florida and heading toward the Carolinas.

Here’s the latest on Dorian from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

The forecast calls for this to become a hurricane and head toward Florida, but there is a bit of a split developing in the models. Does this cross Florida and go into the Gulf or does it curve up the east coast?

Here’s what the hurricane models have to say…

The GFS Ensembles…

The older version of the GFS is similar to what the new version shows, a hurricane heading toward the Carolinas before getting entrained into a deep trough across the eastern part of the country…

The Canadian Model is trying to do something similar, but is a bit farther west…

Further complicating things is the potential for a weaker system to develop out ahead of Dorian in the Gulf of Mexico.

Lots of factors have to be figured out in the coming days!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.