Tracking A Few Storms and Hurricane Dorian

Good Saturday, everyone. A weak cold front is nearing the region, bringing the potential for a few showers and storms over the Labor Day Weekend. While we are tracking a few storms, folks across the southeastern seaboard are on full alert because of Hurricane Dorian. The track continues to shift, potentially taking this farther up the coast toward the Carolinas.

Let’s begin with the weather here in the bluegrass state. It’s a very warm and rather humid day as scattered storms go up. Obviously, not everyone is going to see showers and storms today, but a few strong storms can’t be ruled out. Here are your radars to help you out…

Let’s hope those stay away from your outdoor activities today.

A similar setup will be noted for Sunday into Labor Day.

Hurricane Dorian continues to be a monster of a storm as it heads toward the Bahamas…

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

We continue to see a definitive trend showing up on the models for this storm to curve northward up the east coast of Florida and toward the Carolinas. The National Hurricane Center forecast has been trending in this direction…

cone graphic

Here are the latest Hurricane Model forecasts…

The GFS Ensembles…

The operational models are also strongly going in that direction. Here’s the overnight GFS…

Canadian

That’s a very, very bad trend for the Carolinas!

The models do bring a deep trough behind that departing hurricane, delivering a shot of cool to the country…

Canadian

GFS

Have a great Saturday and take care.


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9 Responses to Tracking A Few Storms and Hurricane Dorian

  1. Schroeder says:

    Those weather models you might as well be looking at a blank piece of paper. They still don’t know, but it would be nice if Hurricane Dorian went out to sea and stayed away from any land. I told my sister who lives in Florida last evening to be prepared for the worse.

    • Mike S says:

      What if it does not make landfall in Florida but just chews up the coastline from Florida to the Carolinas? This eastward shift might benefit a few locations from a direct hit, but more real estate could be impacted by destructive winds, relentless wave action, and other flooding concerns.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Rain showers are well to our north and revolving around a ridge of high pressure. Unfortunately, there is very little chance of any widespread rains for the Farms in my area and other areas of the state for the next several days. Hope the cooler weather pans out at the end of next week but the westerlies to our north may interfere with the cooler air coming south to usher in Autumn. Have a great weekend everyone.

  3. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    The Bermuda high is weak.
    The storm track keeps moving east.
    Go CATS

  4. Schroeder says:

    At 11:00 EST Hurricane Dorian is currently moving to the west. Whether it makes a turn towards the northwest and goes up the east coast of Florida is the big Question. In my opinion the NHC is playing a ” most dangerous game ” with these useless weather models.

    • Linus says:

      So what exactly are they supposed to use? Trying to predict a hurricane several days out is very difficult. And honestly, the models have been pretty good so far. People focus too much on the middle line and not the whole cone. The predicted path today is still within the cone from a couple days ago.

  5. Mike S says:

    It really is amazing to me how the NHC has such an encyclopedia of models to draw from. Sometimes too many is simply just too much….
    http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?page=models

  6. BH says:

    They have that Hurricane making an almost 90 degree turn like it’s running into a brick wall when it get right off Florida’s east coast. We shall see.

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