Good Monday, everybody. A surge of true summer air is starting to push back into the state today and will really ramp up over the next few days. The increase in temps will also come with an increase in humidity. This also means an increase in showers and storms later in the week. How much of a chance may hinge upon the tropics.

As is usually the case, let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs are into the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. There could still be a shower or storm in the north, but most stay dry. Your obligatory regional radar…

The sizzle really settles in on Tuesday with temps in the 90 degree range for many. There will be a small threat for a storm or two in the afternoon.

A better storm chance shows up by Wednesday as moisture streams in from the south. This is following a weakness in the atmosphere that appears to set up right over top of us. Obviously, we could use the rain, but this may also help us out in the temperature department.

The threat for a few storms will then be with us again on Thursday, with a greater threat by Friday. That’s when a potent cold front moves in from the west. This front may slow down over the region, but that largely depends on how strong a potential tropical system gets off the southeast coast…

The stronger that system, whether it’s classified or not, the better the chance that front puts the brakes on. If that’s the case, it would keep a few showers and storms going into the weekend.

The GFS shows our front slowing down…

The same model run then shows a much stronger cold front next week with a more impressive tropical system approaching the southeast again…

The National Hurricane Center is watching a couple of systems in the Atlantic and those could very well be the systems showing up above…

Have a great day and take care.