Summer Sizzle and A Few Storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. Summer temps are back in the bluegrass state and we are sweating out the numbers here in the middle of September. These steamy temps will bring an increasing threat for a few thunderstorms in the coming days. That’s especially true later in the week as a cold front approaches from the west.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s and low 90s for many areas with more humidity in the mix. A few showers and storms will also pop during the afternoon and evening hours, but this isn’t going to be terribly widespread. Here are your tracking tools…

The threat for showers and storms will then increase on Wednesday as temps stay very steamy with a similar setup for Thursday.

The setup for later this week continues to feature a cold front dropping in from the northwest with some kind of tropical system off the southeast coast. That doesn’t mean this is going to become a full blown depression or named storm, but it has a chance as it crosses Florida and into the Gulf…

That front will produce showers and storms as it moves into the state. This tropical system is one of several being monitored by the National Hurricane Center…

If this system gets in the Gulf, there’s a good chance it brings rain into our region early next week. Here’s the GFS…

Some of the other models are showing a much more organized system…

There could very well be another tropical system following that up late next week. That one could make a run at the southeast. Looking at the overall pattern, the setup is primed to try and deliver a major trough into the eastern part of the country not too long after.

Wouldn’t it be something if we go from 90s this week to an early season frost threat a few weeks from now?

Have a great day and take care.

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13 Responses to Summer Sizzle and A Few Storms

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Here comes the heat.

    • BubbaG says:

      Hah! I’m not referring to Dorian with the D word, but referring to drought concerns. These sporodic showers seem to not help overall too much. Hoping next week brings some good soakers for the region! Ironic, considering the past two ish years of fairly consistent and too much rain.

  2. Bryan says:

    Can we say repeat of 2018. As a reminder, last September was blazing hot, and stayed that way until the second week or so of October. This has been an exceptionally dull pattern that shows no sign of weakening.

  3. Ray says:

    It’s just too hot for almost mid September. I was hoping the heatwave pattern was over with after the first week of this month, and unfortunately, that’s not the case. By the way, can anyone tell me what happened to Coffeelady? Just curious. I hope everything is ok.

  4. Mark says:

    Lexington and Louisville are currently the two hottest locations in the entire US at 98 degrees each. Of course, these two airport locations suffer from urban heat island readings, so most everyone else is 3-5 degrees “cooler.” Regardless, life directly under the core of a strong ridge with a progressively drying ground, sucks.

    Let’s hope the tropical system moving into the Gulf brings good rain next week as the models are now showing. The ridge getting pushed off to the east somewhat by then should certainly steer any development down there up this way.

    • Prelude says:

      Lexington hit 100 degrees and Louisville hit 99 degrees both of those records are officially broken. Just goes to show how quick a dry ground can heat things up

  5. TennMark says:

    Retuning home from the office earlier, my car thermometer indicated 99. One could tell the humidity was on the rise. Now getting a t-storm with a good amount of lightning.

    Nashville and central Tennessee seem to have received a little more rain than other parts of the state as well as parts of Kentucky. But my folks near Chattanooga say they have had a few brush fires pop up.

    • TennMark says:

      Late last week, there was a large area of moderate t-storms from west of the St Louis MO area to central and southern Illinois. It was very remarkable watching time lapse radar and seeing that relatively large m-a-s-s of precipitation almost completely dry up as it moved towards southern Indiana and Louisville.

      One kind of takes for granted how summer t-showers fizzle with the evening and loss of daytime heating. But the event last week happened during the day. I suppose that’s the power of dry air.

  6. Mark says:

    Noticed an isolated storm popped up a bit earlier this evening in north-central KY. Blew off a nice anvil to the northeast. NWS was saying the atmosphere was too capped under the strong ridge for any storms. Credit to CB for at least mentioning a stray storm was possible.

    Also, I’m curious why no heat advisory was issued for today? I mean, the heat index was 100-105 in many areas. Back in August during the overrated “heat wave” the NWS in Louisville had the area under advisories everyday with a heat index of about 105. Btw, Louisville hit 99 degrees today, the hottest official temperature here in 7 years.

  7. 37.89°N 84.36°W says:

    Left Hamburg about 3:20…..temp was 97*…hopped on I 75 south and the temp went to 99*…100*…101* then an absurd 102*~ dropped to 100* and stayed there until exit 99! In the driveway it dropped to a relatively sane 98*. ABSURD! I am SO ready for autumn temps!!

  8. Mike S says:

    I personally don’t give a hoot about any heat island hoopla why temperatures over exceeded any meteorological forecasts for our region. Plain and simple. They got it wrong. If you rely on computer generated models, the dry ground is likely not factored into the equation. Look at the other areas that are not heat islands via the Kentucky Mesonet, 97-99 degrees for several areas. This happened earlier this summer as well, many high temperature forecasts missed by a lot. This may be the worst piece of forecasting I’ve seen from the NWS to local media this year.

  9. Mike S says:

    I don’t mean any disrespect CB, but it appears you were mocking the high temperature of 100 degrees at the ‘official’ reporting station at Lexington today. But, the fact that many ‘unofficial’ readings in the upper 90’s were observed in central Kentucky too tells me you would like to throw out official and unofficial high temperatures today in Kentucky, because your forecast high temperatures along with everyone else’s was way off. Just admit it. The dry ground got to you today.

    • Prelude says:

      Interesting tidbit from Louisville. The official high was 99 degrees but yet areas away from the airport (heat island) were coming in a touch hotter with temperatures hitting 100 to 101 degrees for high temperatures and that’s away from the heat island.

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