Changes On The Horizon

Good Thursday, everyone. Out hot pattern continues for a few more days, but changes are showing up in the short term and the longer term. We have a cold front on the way to start the upcoming weekend and the potential for a Gulf tropical system to bring us rain early next week.

The heat we are seeing for the middle of September is super impressive. In looking back through the September history books, 1954 stands out. That September gave us several days deep into the 90s and even a few low 100s early in the month. It was also a busy hurricane season along the east coast.  You know what else is interesting about 1954? It snowed on the final three days of October. 🙂

Let’s get back to 2019 and the weather going on out there today. Temps are back into the 90s with lots of humidity filling the air. A few showers and storms may go up once again……

A cold front moves in here late Friday with another 90+ temp day ahead of it. A few scattered showers and storms will also go up with a line of showers and storms pushing in along the front by evening. This could impact high school football action.

This front appears to have a little more push to it and may actually drop just to our south on Saturday. A few showers and storms could be noted early on,especially in the south and east. The air behind this front looks MUCH cooler with lower humidity. Here are the forecast highs on the NAM…

The air may actually feel comfy through early Sunday with lows hitting the 50s. Woot!

Steamy air returns by late this weekend and early next week as the overall pattern becomes pretty interesting. Let’s begin with the tropics where we are likely to see a depression form soon with this system near the Bahamas. It will then dross Florida and go into the Gulf…

That may very become a storm as it heads toward the Gulf Coast. From there, there’s a chance to get rain from that system into our part of the world by the middle of next week.

Here are the latest forecasts from the tropical models…

The European Model brings that system our way…

You will also notice a big dip in the jet stream across the plains. That’s the major trough idea I’ve been talking about for a while now. The Euro brings that in here by the end of next week as a potential hurricane bears down on the southeast…

There is a lot going on in this pattern, so we have wait and see how it all plays out, but it is a vastly different setup from the one we are in now.

Have a good one and take care.


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18 Responses to Changes On The Horizon

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Some of the models now have the storm moving towards the Georgia coast. I guess that would reduce the rain chances here early next week.
    I do not have any faith in a broken down cold front.
    I guess the majority of us will stay dry.
    We will see how the models perform this afternoon.

  2. AC says:

    Minor/moderate drought status will develop if neither of these rain chances materialize. Gr-a-s-s is browning and tree leaves are drooping, many changing colors already. You know drought when you see it. We’re already getting way behind on 30-day averages. I don’t need a drought monitor to see when it’s starting to get really dry outside.

    • feederband says:

      US drought monitor has some central KY county’s in a moderate drought.

      • AC says:

        That will extend into Lexington by next week. If it hasn’t…..unless perchance it rains and keeps things on a better outlook, it’d be nuts. Things have REALLY dried up here in the past couple of weeks. Temps in the 90’s are not helping things either.

        • AC says:

          Just want to add too, though, that as dry as it has become, I, and most of the rest of us have probably seen it a lot worse. If we go another eight weeks without significant rainfall, we will be in an extreme drought.

  3. MarkLex says:

    None of us should be surprised at this drying and heat as wet and cool as it has been. This was inevitable. I guess it has to balance out. It’s never even. It’s always one extreme or the other.

    • AC says:

      Balance is true. Weather sometimes does things over longer periods of time than many of us are accustomed to in this fast-paced, reactionary society.

  4. Winterlover says:

    Yep somebody has turn the water facet off!! Lol

  5. Mark says:

    Let’s just go ahead and write off now any remnant tropical system / moisture getting into KY next week. Ain’t going to happen. Unfortunately, that was the only hope for significant precipitation over the next 10 days. I’m beginning to think this September has a solid chance of being one of the driest on record in KY, just one year removed from one of the wettest. Yes, nature always balances things out. A prolonged dry spell / drought was inevitably coming after the past few wet years. Now can be get some prolonged cooler than normal temperatures (not just a few days or a week)?

  6. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    According to the Euro Humberto will take the same path as Dorian.
    Another miss opportunity for rain.

  7. Prelude says:

    Bottom line if we can’t get any remnants of a tropical system this hot and dry pattern will just keep on keeping on.

  8. BubbaG says:

    CB, the adjective “few”, does not build much confidence for much precipitation. Looking pretty darn dry overall.

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