Looking For Rain Chances

Good Friday, folks. The number of dry weather days continues to add up for the bluegrass state, but there are signs of a subtle pattern shift in the coming days. It’s a small shift, but it’s one that will bring the best threat of rain many of us have seen in a month or so. A bonus of this shift will also be temps coming down some, but still averaging above normal.

Our Friday will find temps from the upper 70s to low 80s across the central and east with middle 80s west. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted and, just like the past few days, a spotty shower or storm may go up. Most of the state is dry, but your regional radar MAY pick up on a blip or two…

Our weekend looks VERY warm and rather windy, so abide by local burning restrictions. A cold front will then work in here Sunday night and Monday, bringing the potential for showers and storms. Here’s how the NAM sees it arriving Sunday night…

Here’s the Canadian through Monday night…

This isn’t likely to be a full blown soaking rain, but we will take whatever we can get at this point. Temps will be very pleasant and near normal behind this front.

The pattern continues to look a little active behind this boundary and could throw one or two more rain chances at us later next week…

After we get through whatever comes at us next week, the setup for the final few days of September into the first week of October looks super toasty. Folks, this is a very warm pattern that will continue through the middle of October. The setup is there for a bad forest fire season in our neck of the woods.

I’ll talk more about the rain threats and will look at more fall and winter stuff this weekend, so check back. Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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35 Responses to Looking For Rain Chances

  1. Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

    I will take what we can get.

  2. Mike S says:

    A light shower popped up in my area of Valley Station about 4:15 this morning. Much of the pavement was spotted wet, but the rain gauge only had a small bubble of water collected. Coordinating with a nearby MSD rain gauge and my digital tipping gauge, I recorded a strong trace of rain. So, my dry streak officially continues.

  3. This Pattern Sucks says:

    Why bother talking about the “fall stuff?” Yesterday this hellish pattern was supposed to go through early October, today it’s mid October, lol.

    Let’s talk about the southeast ridge, which has dominated our pattern for a long time and showing absolutely no sign of weakening.

    Long term warming is real, natural cycle IMO, but it’s occurring. Christmas at poolside anybody

  4. Schroeder says:

    On the Mesonet( which is not updated) Harrison County Kentucky received 0.02 inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours.

  5. Schroeder says:

    If everyone can remember the Saturday before Easter we had snow showers here in Taylor county and other areas of the state of Kentucky. Easter was as late as I have ever seen coming on the twenty first of April. I just wonder if that is why we are having Summer in September due to a late Spring ? Maybe just maybe our Winter weather this year will come around Thanksgiving and stay through March 2020. One can hope.

  6. Bryan says:

    Why bother looking at “fall stuff?” You just mentioned this terrible pattern going well into October!

    Absolutely no sign of a pattern change in the weeks ahead. October looks to be an all time warmth month. November even a shot.

    Long term warmth ( natural I still believe) is real. I had a shot to transfer out west earlier this year. Boy to have that to do over again!

    • Schroeder says:

      Bryan they have hot and dry periods out west too. Just not this year.

    • Bob says:

      “Long term warmth?” What is that nonsense? Climate change is real and man-made. There is no room for debate on this. Science doesn’t care about your opinion. I’m not going to float when if I jumped off a cliff because I don’t believe in gravity…

  7. Schroeder says:

    Chris, you mentioning ” a high chance of forest fires ” has me really concerned as I live in the middle of a vast forest. However, with low population in my area it would likely have to come from dry lighting and not from anyone throwing a lite cigarette out of a moving car window but lets hope not.

    • Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

      Sometimes forest fires start from trains.
      Friction sparks between the train wheels & the track.
      Maybe the Governor should issue a no fire burn if the conditions continue to deteriorate.

    • Bus Haynes says:

      Here in Southern Ohio the Hillbilly fire bugs start fires. Back in the early 60’s me and my brother and cousin when and worked for the state of Ohio helping put out a fire here. The State paid us 50 cents an hour to do it. it finally burnt itself out. But we stayed all night in the woods watching that it did not flare back up. What was something to see was all the dead stumps still burning like lanterns in the night. That was some night. You had smoke on you and in ours eyes. We were wore out climbing those hills.

      • Bus Haynes says:

        Also one other thing. That night we came across a house that was in the woods where the fire was.
        There we met a young black man there. We went inside his house and when we entered it there was no wood floor. The floor was dirt. We don’t know how good we have it now days.

      • Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

        Did Smokey and an Indian with a tear in his eyes pay you a courtesy visit when you were out in the woods?(lol)

      • Schroeder says:

        Bus, you would remember how dry it was in 1976 Fall and the record cold November and the driest November also. The very cold and snowy Winter didn’t hit until after Christmas and didn’t end till April 1977.

  8. Matt from St. Matthews says:

    We hit the jackpot this morning with 0.08 inches. That should take the crunch out of the ground…at least until this afternoon.

  9. Should we really be talking about winter when fall hasn’t arrived yet? At this point, October/November should be considered late/Indian summer and December-February ‘fall’ until further notice.

  10. BubbaG says:

    Rain chances for three state overall not looking too good even next week.

  11. BubbaG says:

    The, three, whatever.

  12. feederband says:

    Been in Cape Cod MA since last Friday. Temps were in the mid 60’s and lows in the 50’s. Beautiful sunny days but still cool for me. Happy to be back in warmer weather even though I never sneezed or needed any allergy meds. Saw a great white shark and whales so that is checked off on my bucket list.

  13. Mike S says:

    Well, the light shower we had several hours ago and the conundrum of whether I should record measurable precipitation is no longer an issue. I have puddles on the driveway, and my 24-day dry streak is finally over.

  14. JimCVG says:

    We better make sure those forests are raked real good before a fire flares up /s

  15. Schroeder says:

    This is Schroeder’s Brother. My Brother e-mailed Mr. Bailey concerning the issue of someone using my e-mail address, though my Brother received no answer, which proves someone used my personal e-mail address. I spoke to my IP provider and they are going to look into this matter. In the meantime please do not use my e-mail address in this forum.

    • Mike S says:

      I’m not much of an IT guy, but I do have my own blog and have capability to set up avatars or picture profiles. But, likely, Mr. Bailey outsources to someone else like WordPress or Blogger, who can help set up these things, so he probably would not have any idea what is going on. Any of these though have technical support, and these are the people you talk to, not this forum and not Mr. Bailey, if you want this resolved in a more efficient manner. Looks like a blog issue, not someone using personal e-mail addresses.

    • Mike S says:

      …or the easiest explanation, which still does not makes sense, is that when Prelude entered his information such as name and email address for his comment to appear on the forum, he used your name Schroeder and his (Prelude) email address. Hopefully, we understood that it was his avatar, it was his words, it came from his email address, it was him, but for some reason in the Name section, your (Schroeder) name is entered, and it shows up as the one commenting.
      Still, no violation of anyone’s email address….

  16. Schroeder says:

    Not to me. It’s insulting !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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