Good Tuesday, everyone. Our first full day of fall is actually feeling the part across the bluegrass state. This nice feeling air is behind a cold front that moved through on Monday and it’s the first of two fronts set to impact us. The next one arrives later this week. It continues to look toasty after this, but the tropics may be have a say in how it plays out.
Let’s begin with today’s dose of awesome weather. After starting things out around 50, temps rebound into the 70s with low humidity and a mix of sun and clouds. With dry air in place, watch for a quick drop in temps this evening with lows in the upper 40s to low 50 by Wednesday morning.
Another cold front then makes a run at us late Wednesday into Thursday. Several models are trying their best to slow this front down on top of us. If that’s the case, we could be getting in on a decent shot of rain. Check out the rain totals from the models for the rest of the week…
GFS
Canadian
I’ll take a heavy dose of the Canadian and all it a day as it has a weak wave of low pressure along the front. Think positive, folks! 🙂
From there, there’s a smaller chance for rain this weekend as another system makes a run at us. This is on the edge of VERY warm air settling back in. This warm surge continues to look a little less formidable and has a little less staying power on many of the operational models. You can see what I’m talking about on this GFS virtual weather ride from this weekend through late next week…
It’s interesting to watch these models go from record heat for the first week of October to showing a frost threat. There is a lot of cold air available for any trough that can manage to get into the eastern part of the country. Much of that cold is locked up across the west where VERY early season significant snows will be possible. Check out the 10 day GFS snowfall…
Road trip anyone? I hear Wyoming is nice this time of year!
Much of how the next few weeks play out are highly dependent on what happens in the tropics.Things there continue to be super-active with three named storms in the Atlantic Basin…
Jerry continues to push out into the central Atlantic…
Karen is a different story, however. This storm is going to be slow to get organized as it pushes into the north through the Caribbean…
There is a chance this storm then takes a due west turn late this week and it has a chance to impact the southeast or head toward the Gulf. Check out the model forecasts for Karen…
Hurricane Models
GFS Ensembles
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
By the sounds of this post, I’m glad I’m not antelope hunting in Wyoming this year.
Here before the ridiculousness starts.
A cool 52 degrees here in western,ky this morning at least were getting a taste of fall before heat spell comes back this weekend. Oh well its matter of time the pattern will change. Have a good day!
I know forecasts can change during a week, but looking at the WPC for the last 7 days of this month, up to 0.25″ is all most of us will get, nearly guaranteeing this will be one of the driest Septembers on record for many of us. For some like Louisville, this could become a top ten contender for one of the driest months on record. Currently, Louisville has recorded 0.04″. Driest month ever was 0.07″ in October 1908 and the 10th driest was September 1883 at 0.32″. Unless something changes, this could be a top contender for driest September statewide.
Yet still no drought talk by mets. Why da’?
Our local Mets talk about it. NWS talks about it. They use the word. One of the ways to describe drought conditions is when burn bans are in effect. We had over 50 counties this past week with burn bans in effect. It’s real.
Lexington, with no measurable rainfall for the month, officially, might also secure a high ranking in not only the driest September but driest of any months on record. Driest month was 0.11″ in October 1924; the 10th driest was 0.49″ in September 1969. Btw, driest September was 0.24″ set in 1959
Thanks, Chris! The rain missed us again! It’s frustrating to see the line of rain split and go East and West of us but miss us completely! Maybe Thursday???
There is just no signs out there of a pattern change for the foreseeable future. The heat will dominate and many more records will continue to fall. The End
The streak stands, not a drop of rain here on the Perry Breathitt line..
Rain dance.
A road trip to Wyoming sounds wonderful! Just got back from there 🙂