Good Monday, everyone. Our historic September is wrapping up on a hot and mainly dry note across the bluegrass state. That’s an appropriate ending to what is likely the hottest and driest September on record for many cities. This will even go down as the driest month in recorded history for some. That’s beyond astounding when you step back and think about it.
As we get ready to flip the calendar to October, the heat hangs on for a few days, but big time changes show up later this week into the weekend. Those changes will bring more traditional fall temps in here and will also up our rain chances.
Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs are back into the 90s and a few records may fall. There continues to be the smallest chance for a popup shower or storm…
October arrives on Tuesday with more of the same and that continues through Wednesday. By Thursday, a fall cold front shows up from northwest to southeast and that may will have a stout temperature gradient along it. Check out the Thursday afternoon temp map…
There’s also the small chance for a shower or storm as the cooler air surges in, but it’s the temperature drop that is the main story. Readings by Friday morning may be deep into the 40s…
There’s a chance for highs to stay in the 60s on Friday as we get ready for another chilly morning on Saturday…
That brings us to the next system that has one heck of a look to it. It’s another cold front dropping in, but the models are very robust with this front and low pressure along it. This boundary may even pull up some tropical juice from the Gulf.
The European Model is exactly what the drought doctor ordered from late Sunday through Tuesday…
The rain numbers from this run…
Obviously, that would almost have to get something from the Gulf into it to produce those totals, so let’s not go cray cray. See kids, I’m hip! 😉
The GFS is also offering up some kind numbers…
That would be another shot of typical fall chill behind that system, regardless of how much rain it can give us.
There’s a chance I throw you guys another update later today, so check back. Until then, make it a great Monday and take care.
Finally! Some good news Chris! Forecast for new few days here in Lexington is 97! 97!!!!!! Crazy so late in the year.
Thanks Chris, Looking good and great blog this morning. Yesterday’s high temperature was a toasty 93 degrees here in my backyard. Have a great Monday everyone.
‘Wait Until Next Week’ has always been a major theme on this blog site.
What are you suggesting? That this is our new weather from now on?
I read the blog, but not enough. I haven’t watched local news and weather, well, in years…
So, something I am wondering which I’m sure has been discussed is “What has caused this unusual hot dry spell?” As a kid I remember things like “Bermuda Highs” that basically put a dome of high pressure around the southeast and caused all the weather patterns to more or less skirt around the edges and move through Arkansas and up through Illinois and central/northern Ohio…
I am not saying that’s the culprit here at all, but what big picture event has has led to the pattern we have been locked into for really the last three months? We went from very, very wet for many months to very, very hot and dry for quite a while… What changed?
Probably a bunch of things..MJO stalling into a warm phase,colder waters in South America,-NAO..Not my reasoning but just reading other people’s thoughts..Just seems like the weather doesn’t behave like it use to.
A big high pressure dome has been wandering around the southeast US for weeks, just camped out there. I’ve heard many times about the fact that the numerous hurricanes out in the Atlantic are keeping our weather pattern from changing by keeping that high pressure from moving out, but I really don’t know why. That all being said, the whole North American continent is out of balance right now, with record snows in the northwest and record heat/dry in the southeast. When this imbalance corrects itself, I think the weather around here could be epic.
Other monthly records include ‘most 90 degree days in September’ for Louisville, should be 22 by later today, already smashing previous record of 18 set in 1908.
Too bad there’s only 30 days in September, could have tied this past July for 23 days in the 90’s. But, the consolation prize should be the all-time hottest temperature for the month of October, easily by several degrees.
Lexington also should set a new September record for most days in the 90’s with 19, eclipsing 1939 and 1941 when both years reached the mark 18 times.
Also, Lexington’s dry streak record of 37 consecutive days could be in jeopardy. At 33 days presently, no rain forecast until next Sunday, do the math.
I believe today is day 33 without precip at Carroll Airport in Breathitt co.. just crazy at this point. One extreme to the other these days.
I always thought a persistence forecast was one of the most useless forecast products to go by, unless you live near a desert, or on the west coast like San Diego.
However, I was wrong. If I would have made a forecast for Lexington that since the high temperature was 90 degrees and the low temperature was 69 degrees, and there was no rain on September 1, it will be like that for the rest of the month, I’m sure everyone would have said, “Mike, that’s why we have professionals and guess what, you’re not.”
So true. But guess what? In this rare case, a persistence forecast for the whole month was likely more accurate than forecasts put out by professionals at least 24 hours out. The persistence forecast would have been off by about 2 degrees per day on average for Lexington. I saw several days this month when NWS and local media forecast temperatures were well below the actual results, sometimes as much as 8-10 degrees, according to some weather maps.
But, the thing that irks me, is instead of attributing the drying/dry ground messed with their forecasts, ones would blame faulty thermometers at Lexington, well you know what, I guess the entire state of Kentucky better replace those thermometers, because we were all very hot and dry.
When ones cannot admit they’re wrong, that ain’t right.
True.
If you’re going to attack Chris, falsely as it may be, at least try to be more subtle. )
So, it’s false that Chris has suggested or insinuated that the thermometer at Lexington BG airport be replaced? It’s also false that a drying/ dry ground has not contributed in any way to forecasts made by Chris and his team along with my local Mets and their teams which underplayed the actual temperatures by several degrees over a period of 2 months? This is more than a Lexington thing. Look at Harrodsburg, Danville, Jackson, Frankfort, Richmond….It has been statewide. Finally, it’s not an attack on Chris. Rather I challenge ALL regional weather professionals to step up, learn from this, own up to this rather glaring oversight (the NWS Louisville has at least admitted drought conditions have caused temperatures to overachieve) and improve their forecasts while not resorting to excuses, blaming others for their lack of skill set related to drought. They only have a couple more days of these 90’s left. Caldwell had 93 today, 92 tomorrow, 93 on Wednesday. It’s already hit at least 97 in Lexington today. Why will it be cooler tomorrow??? It will be at least 95, likely higher. Come on. Get it closer.
Is this a pattern change or a pattern break? There is a difference.
Speaking of persistence forecasts, either there are 2 of the maps above that are identical, as in a copy, or else that is a superlative example of a persistence forecast for Friday and Saturday morning.
While the spring months have the highest risk for tornadoes in our part of the country (even if last spring was fairly quiet), November is on average a secondary peak season for Kentucky and Tennessee.
November 2005 is a good example. Early that month, an F3 near Henderson KY entered into southern Indiana which resulted in 25 fatalities at a mobile home park near Evansville. Later that same month was the F4 that just clipped the outskirts Madisonville KY along with several F3s and F2s in Kentucky and Tennessee resulting in two deaths.
Some of us here may remember November 17 2013 with perhaps most noteworthy the EF3 that p-a-s-s-e-d within sight of the Paducah office of the NWS then crossing into southern Illinois and later crossing the river again back into Kentucky. Three in Illinois lost their lives.
With this in mind, area NWS offices are now conducting courses (both online and in physical c-l-a-s-s-r-o-o-m-s) for Skywarn storm spotters. Check the NWS office you are under jurisdiction of for more details.
https://www.weather.gov/skywarn/ky-skywarn
https://www.weather.gov/pah/spottertraining
https://www.weather.gov/skywarn/tn-skywarn
https://www.weather.gov/ohx/skywarn
TennMark, I always enjoy reading your history posts. Keep them coming!
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sxsrf=ACYBGNSF12XeQPxcXt-RwlffBVdnXDEjcg%3A1569860542516&source=hp&ei=viuSXfa6G8bYsAXhybLgBA&q=evansville+in+tornado+2005&oq=Evansville%2C+In.+Tornado&gs_l=psy-ab.1.2.0i22i30l10.4799.44389..50104…5.0..0.274.2621.11j12j1….2..0….1..gws-wiz…….0j0i67j0i10j0i20i263.QYuvj5YIeas
The above is about the Tornado in Evansville, Indiana
Climate is always changing.. Been that way since the Earth was formed. Weather cycles yearly. Extremes and Norms combine to make averages.. This is all one really needs to know here.
That’s nice to know…..never would have guessed that climate changes.
And if you read his paragraph carefully he actually contradicts himself.
How have I contradicted myself? Maybe put some bull with your crud and it might have some substance
Rain coming down in Clay Co.
I’m ready for ANY kind of change at this point. It’s so boring and the deer HATE, HATE moving in this kind of heat. Deer activity should boom this weekend and after that potential front next week.
95 degrees today the last day of September. Ugh
Wow. Another close call at Lexington BG airport. A trace of rain with these renegade showers popping in the heat of the day, and yet it is at 97. Hot in Louisville too with 97. I have hit 95, but currently at 94.