Good Wednesday, everybody. Record heat will continue today and into Thursday for some areas, but big changes are lurking by Friday. That’s when a fall cold front brings much cooler air into the state, taking our temps closer to normal. Once we get the cooler air, the rain chances will then increase by Sunday and Monday.
Let’s begin with today’s weather. It’s $#@^^ hot!
Thursday is another hot day as our front doesn’t arrive until the evening. Temps can easily hit 90 or a little better, especially in the east. This may very well set more record highs and could be the 3rd hottest day ever recorded in October, only behind Yesterday and today. As I wrote last night, this is right up there with one of the greatest all time heat waves to ever impact Kentucky.
The cold front moves through with little, if any, rainfall. Behind it comes a blast of some of the good stuff. The NAM is the coolest of all models for Friday. Here’s how it starts the day…
Afternoon temps stay in the 60s on this run…
That’s likely too cool, so lets hit the 70-75 degree range for many. Friday evening looks great with a chilly start to the day on Saturday as lows are likely deep into the 40s.
Saturday is a nice and breezy day with temps in the 70s, but some low 80s sneak in across the west and south. This will be ahead of a cold front working toward us on Sunday. That boundary may try to slow down and allow a wave of low pressure to develop along it. The new GFS isn’t as pronounced with this low, but still has some decent rains…
The Canadian has never really shown much of a low, but it’s a little better looking…
Regardless of how much rain we can get from this setup, some very cool air is likely next week. I imagine some of this may depend on a renewed uptick in potential tropical development. Instead of big systems in the Atlantic, we will need to watch the Gulf…
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I will try to throw ya’ll another update this evening. Make it a great day and take care.
At 4:20 this morning, Lexington Mesonet is one of the warmest sites in the state at 75 degrees. This is not the first time. This Mesonet site consistently is cooler in the daytime but warmer at night, on clear days and nights. The BG airport came in at 73 at 4:00a.m.
My thermometer here in Valley Station reads 69 at 4:30
Mike S, You may or may not be interested in the following link on best outdoor thermometers : https://www.1001gardens.org/best-outdoor-thermometers-2018/
Mike, yep! LOL Which one is right, which one is wrong? LOL
Depends on the forecast
Oh boy. Here go the subtle knocks on Chris again.
I didn’t see Andy single out CB….seems to me his comment is geared toward a forecast from any outlet…
https://giphy.com/gifs/funny-reaction-ORyPdjGfyTYeA
Thanks Chris, Yesterday’s high in my backyard was 94 degrees. This morning temperature is a pleasant 68 degrees. I hope the current weather pattern changes as forecast this weekend with more Autumn like temperatures. As for any beneficial rains we may have to wait maybe a little longer. Have a great day everyone.
Even the Chicago Metro area received summer-like temps on Monday, as the high temperature was 86 degrees at O’Hare Airport. That fell six degrees short of the record high for the date of 92 degrees. The low temp of 68 degrees just missed breaking the all-time record high minimum of 71 degrees for October.
For September, O’Hare Airport’s average daily temp was 69.4 degrees, which was 4.8 degrees above normal (average high 76.9, with one 90-degree day, average low 61.9). That average low temp was 7.6 degrees above normal, quite an unusual departure above normal. The coolest nighttime low for September was 53 degrees. It’s very rare that we did not have one night below 50 degrees for September! In some past years we have gotten our first frost in late September.
O’Hare received 7.61 inches of rain for the month, making it the sixth-wettest September on record here. Some areas of Northern Illinois, like in the SW suburbs of Chicago where I am, received even more rain. I know all of you in Kentucky would have loved to receive some of that! Hope you get some beneficial rains soon.
Phoenix Az had more rain in the month of September than Lexington and Louisville.
Even Death Valley CA recorded 0.01″ more than Lexington
Add Las Vegas NV to the above lists, as they received 0.24 inches for September.
Low temperatures this morning…
Frankfort…65
Bowling Green…67
Jackson…69
Lexington BG…70
Louisville International…71
Lexington Mesonet…72; if we use this number, it would be the all-time warmest minimum for the month of October (which is OFFICIALLY 71)
The rain event for late Sunday / Monday is far from a sure thing right now. The Euro is going away from its extremely wet solution. The GFS and Canadian look plain awful for northern KY / southern IN with hardly any appreciable rainfall. Southern and southeast KY fair better. Even with the ridge getting squashed, the drought still has staying power. Drought begets drought. This short term drought is beginning to rival 1999 in its extreme look. What if this is just the beginning of a longer term drought? Something to ponder.
Could be Mark. We are long over due for a long term drought as we are for a cold and snowy Winter.
Not a good look. I’d say the odds are 50/50 we touch 90 degrees again mid month.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php