Cold Air Crashes Back In

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our cold front continues to push to the east, allowing for colder air to settle back into the bluegrass state. This continues to be part of the overall pattern that is very active and looks to throw even colder air in here for the final two weeks of October. There are even some hints of winter showing up.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Showers and storms are with us very early on, especially across the east. This action will move away by late morning, but low clouds will swing back in from the north and northwest through the afternoon. I can’t rule out a few showers coming from those low clouds.

Here’s regional radar to track the action:

Because of the sun verses clouds thing, temps may be all over the place at any one time during the day, but everyone should come down in the afternoon. Temps this afternoon may range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Location, location, location.

Gusty winds will make it feel much colder, especially when the clouds return. The clouds thing may continue to be an issue over the next few days and that’s going to play a big role in our temperatures, especially at night. Lows by Thursday morning will drop deep into the 30s with clear skies, but stay near 40 with clouds.

Thursday looks like a crisp fall day with a mix of sun and clouds and temps generally in the 50s. Can we completely clear the skies out Thursday night? If we do, a freeze would be possible as temps drop to freezing or below for many. The NAM fam has temps dropping well into the 20s for some spots…

NAM

The Hi Res NAM is even colder…

Those numbers are likely too cold, but it gives you an indication that we could see, at least, a light freeze.

The weather for Friday and Saturday looks great as temps recover toward the 70s by Saturday. Clouds will increase late in the day as moisture streams in from a possible tropical system in the Gulf. That system may bring us some rain by Sunday.

The main storm system will roll in here by the time we hit Monday. This powerful plains storm will drag another front through here and this one may have high winds and strong storms with it…

Much colder air sweeps quickly back in behind that boundary.

If you’ve been reading for a while, you know I’ve really been trying to lock in on late October for some potential fun in fall. The analogs I came up with back in September first clued me in to the possibility, then the overall pattern started to evolve in that direction. Now, the computer forecast models are showing a little something with just about each run.

These are some deep and anomalous troughs showing up for the rest of October..

That’s a signal for much colder than normal temps, but can we get more than just cold out of it? Maybe.

Each run of the GFS from the past several days has been showing a touch of winter. The latest was no different…

We shall see, but it’s pretty amazing to see these signals matching up with those analogs I showed you guys back in September.

I will try to update later today, but I have a few things going on that may prevent me from doing so.

Enjoy the day and take care.


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22 Responses to Cold Air Crashes Back In

  1. 37.89*N 84.36*W says:

    If you listen carefully-you can hear the Winter engine revving up and it’s going to leave the station soon. Polar Express?

  2. Virgil E says:

    I swear if I hear “Polar Vortex”, Im going full rant.

  3. Jared says:

    I can just go ahead and say, from me being from north Dakota, that i cant wait for winter, and if the GFS can stay the same from September, then its a good bet that winter is on its way

  4. Andy Rose says:

    Polar vortex its coming

  5. Terry says:

    It took 7 weeks, but I finally had a decent rainfall in Harlan this morning. I love the oscillation trend next week. If only it were December or later.

  6. AC says:

    Measurable snowfall can still occur in the late fall season. Measurable snow greater than 5″ (total for the season from September to November) fell in the fall in 1889, 1903, 1906, 1920, 1936, 1938, 1950 and 1966.

    Interestingly, though, since the late 1880’s, this happened every 15 years on average. It’s been over 50 years since we’ve seen that much snow in the fall. Climate change or anomaly? Kind of hard to say.

    • AC says:

      These are just the recorded data for Lexington, by the way.

    • Debbie says:

      I have a pic of me at 4 y/o standing in my aunt’s yard when they lived in Greensburg. She always dated her pics, etc, and on the back of this one, it says “Debbie *****, age 4, Greensburg, KY Nov. 2, 1966 (14” snow) šŸ™‚

      I’ve a feeling that this will be a record-breaking winter season for us here in the Ohio Valley/KY. We are long-due!

  7. Debbie says:

    Pardon me for asking, but could anyone tell me what happened to “Coffeelady”? I saw her daughters’ post about her surgeries, etc, last night and wondered, as we just moved into our new home this past weekend, and I’ve been really busy the past couple of months preparing for the move and haven’t had a chance to even glance at the blog like usual. She’s always been so sweet and upbeat on here through the years.

    • MarkLex says:

      I’ve asked too but never get a response so I guess no one knows.

      • Cold-Rain says:

        Her daughter posted yesterday evening..Sill in ICU but improving and may be moved to rehab soon..Looking forward to her posting again..Get well soon..

        • Debbie says:

          That’s the post I was talking about, but what I was asking is, “WHY did she have the surgery(and subsequent ones)to begin with?” Her daughter said that CB had posted something about the first surgery, but going back, I couldn’t find anything. But regardless, I hope she’s on the road to recovery and I, too, look forward to seeing her here again! <3

  8. Melva says:

    Not getting too hyped up this year for snow, after the previous season. Every thing was a bust. We will just have to take the weather as it comes, I suppose. I believe it must be getting harder and harder to predict accurate snowfall.

    Either way, with cooler weather, it’s time for some warm blankets, cozy fires and hot chocolate!

  9. Mike S says:

    Despite the raw, cool day, this day will go down with high temperatures in the 60’s nearly statewide, since many of those temperatures were achieved early after midnight.

  10. Ray says:

    I do believe we’ll get at least some snow before Halloween this year. I remember seeing a lot of snow as a kid during a Halloween in the 1990s. We were trick or treating in it. Not sure exactly what year that occurred.

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