It’s A Busy Pattern Taking Shape

Good Friday, everyone. It’s an absolutely gorgeous end to the week and that rolls into the start of the upcoming weekend. From there, we watch a tropical system in the Gulf, a potent cold front arriving on Monday and a much colder than normal pattern taking shape.

Temps this morning are below freezing in some areas,but a nice recovery is on the way this afternoon. Temps will be into the 60s this afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky showing up.

A tropical storm down in the Gulf of Mexico is rolling toward the Florida Panhandle today. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That system will throw clouds our way for Saturday and Sunday and could even bring a few showers into the region. The best chance is across the southeast late Saturday into very early Sunday.

Temps this weekend turn mild with highs generally in the 70s.

Another powerful cold front then rumbles across the state Monday into Monday night. This will likely produce a line of showers and strong storms that races from west to east. High winds are possible with this setup…

Heavy rains are also possible with these storms. Check out some of the totals from the GFS…

Much colder air sweeps in behind the boundary with temps in the 50s for Tuesday.

From there, we watch the setup for late next week. This will feature another major dip in the jet stream and blast of cold air coming into the country. This is likely to spawn a storm system that may work into our region about a week from now. That system may have some cold air to work with, so that may be fun to watch.

I think the bigger push of cold comes right after that and this is the one that has a shot to bring a touch of winter into the region for the final week of the month. The European Ensembles are growing a little louder with this potential…

I will hook you all up with another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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8 Responses to It’s A Busy Pattern Taking Shape

  1. Rickie H says:

    Good morning everyone! Thanks Chris for the information.
    I had a notice come over my phone yesterday. It was from NOAA. Said Ky was going to have a warmer that usual Winter this year…. WHAT!
    I hope not!

    • Troy says:

      I saw that myself, and while I don’t totally discount it, I put absolutely no faith in any model, person , or entity (including NOAA, Farmers Almanac, etc) who pretends to know what the weather is going to be like for the next 5 months…..especially when they cant accurately forecast 5 days ahead. In essence, at best, they are making a guess just as we would.

  2. AC says:

    With as many cold shots diving in, in the month of October, especially late October, it is less likely we will have a warmer winter on average.
    Records show winters with colder than normal temps had higher than normal snowfall–although the snow itself would account for this, it’s not 100%.

    I think we average around normal or slightly below normal this winter, given we had a very hot late summer with a prolonged dry period in September.

  3. Cold-Rain says:

    Looks like a -EPO,-NAO and +PNA at the end of October according to modeling..Talk about the snow possibilities if it was deeper into winter..Remember a few years back the winter was EPO driven and it stayed cold if my memory is correct..

  4. Virgil E says:

    How is something a potential tropical system if it has sustained winds of 60 MPH? Wouldn’t that be a named Tropical Storm?

    In other news: People have no faith in forecasters, unless they are Climate Alarmists: Then they have complete religious faith and worship in their products.

    • Mike S says:

      It is a tropical storm with a name (Nestor), nothing potential about that. It’s real. Re-read CB’s post. “tropical system in the Gulf” and “potent cold front”, maybe that crossed your wires…then again, the rest of your post made absolutely no sense either.

    • TennMark says:

      Well, it didn’t become a named storm until it got to 39 mph.

      The system was also highly disorganized at first. There was even the possibility of it being designated as “Subtropical” Storm Nester. Although Nester is still somewhat disorganized, the National Hurricane Center concluded it was tropical enough to be called a tropical storm.

      Complete religious faith and worship in their products?? I’m still somewhat skeptical of human made climate change but I at least try to learn mainstream climate science views. I’m actually a former young-earth creationist/former worldwide Flood advocate.

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