Tracking A Very Active Setup

Good Saturday, everyone. I continue to beat the drum on a very active weather pattern that looks to be with us through the rest of the month. This will feature several potent cold fronts as the overall setup starts to take on more of a winter look.

Batting leadoff in the active weather pattern is Tropical Storm Nestor. This storm comes ashore early today in the Florida Panhandle…

cone graphic

That system is moving quickly toward the northeast, but should manage to throw some clouds in here today. Those clouds may produce some late day showers in the southeast…

Temps this weekend are pretty mild and should reach the 70s in most areas. This comes as we watch another potent plains storm system lift toward the Great Lakes on Monday. That drags a big time cold front across the state and this is likely to bring heavy rain producing showers and strong storms…

Gusty winds could become an issue as those storms blow through here.

Heavy rainfall numbers are also likely to show up. Some 1″-2″ rains may show up for many…

October is already above normal for rainfall and it’s likely to finish much above normal in many areas.

Yet another potent storm system should roll in here by the end of next week into next weekend. The evolution of this storm remains to be seen, but the pattern argues for a pretty big system that should also have a little cold air to work with on the northwest side of it. Here’s how the latest GFS sees it…

It’s no secret I’ve been pointing toward a very cold pattern taking control for the last week and change of October and likely rolling into early November, at least. If you’ve been reading the past few days, you’ve seen the consensus of the various Ensembles signalling some major troughs into the eastern part of the country.

The operational models have been all over this as well, but the overnight GFS is pretty darn awesome to see…


That’s a lot of very cold air showing up. One could easily argue this would be arctic air moving into the country. Obviously, with such cold temps, winter weather continues to show up on the models…

I will drop by for another update later today, so roll back in here. Until then, have a sensational Saturday and take care.

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6 Responses to Tracking A Very Active Setup

  1. Andy Rose says:

    I hope I can get in on some of this above normal rainfall soon to date just under 1.5 inches for the month. The temps are starting off cooler than expected this morning at 35 degrees.

  2. MarkLex says:

    I always get paranoid when cold shows up this early…..only because lots of times you can have a really bad early winter, then it just warms up after that……Not always. Some winters can get cold early and just stay cold. I think those late 70s winters it was warm up until early Jan, then it got cold/stayed cold. In a perfect world (for me), it would be seasonable up until mid-Dec, then full-on winter until mid-March

  3. Dottie says:

    Due to having spinal surgery a couple of months ago, we haven’t gotten our wood pile stocked up yet. Now I’m getting nervous about all this talk of cold and arctic air coming in. brrrrr.

  4. Dave says:

    Usually besides model craziness, the cold and snow never show up early lol. Or hardly any other time for that matter. We keep talking about the 70s like it was yesterday instead of 40+ years ago.

  5. Bobt says:

    Climate prediction center saying above normal temps for the winter for Kentucky and Tennessee. Get out the umbrellas if that’s the case.

  6. Mike says:

    Spent the day in the Red River Gorge. (Hanson’s point) – Perfect weather! Thanks, Chris! A job well done. I will let you know when I head out again so you can do the business then as well.

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