Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a few more days of beautiful fall weather, then some big changes move in for the weekend. Those changes include a strong southern storm system rolling right in here with what may be a soaking rain. An interesting look then tries to show up as we close out October and usher in November.

Let me start out with a big welcome to the seasonal haters. It’s good to have y’all back and giving me clicks! I honestly find it so bizarre the people who hate me the most are the same ones who read every single KWC post, check every single tweet and watch every TV forecast. Boy, that will sure teach me! Y’all keep doing your thing and keep me employed! 🙂

The weather today into Thursday continues to look awesome so enjoy.

I have no change to the weekend setup as a juicy system comes at us from the southwest late Friday into the weekend. This will bring an increase in rain and maybe even a rumble of thunder. The NAM has finally come around to this solution. This run only goes through early Saturday morning…

Check out that snow in areas of Texas and Oklahoma at the start of this system!

Guess what the GFS found? If you answered a heavy dose of reality, you are a winner. Talk about a dramatic reversal of fortune for those who worship it…

Those rainfall numbers are way up there…

The European Model is even wetter and just a bit farther west with the axis of heavy rains…

Once we get past that system, the setup for the closing days of October and into early November continues to fluctuate from model to model and from run to run.

Arctic air will be pouring into the Rockies and plains states early in the week. That air is going to try and spread east and should have a couple of storm systems riding along it. How far east that boundary gets as those systems crank will be a pain to forecast.

The GFS is doing what the GFS does and has a progressive look to the cold air and even shows some winter weather for the final few days of October…

That’s similar to what the Tuesday run of the Canadian was showing, but the overnight run stalls the arctic front to our west and produces a massive amount of rain around here…

Just like I said a few days ago with this weekend’s system, the actual truth is likely in between.

I will have another update later today, so be sure to check back in. We know the haters will be hitting the refresh button every few mins. 😉

Have a great day and take care.